Obama Faces the Fall of Aleppo...Will It Be His Saigon?

The endgame is approaching for moderate Syrian fighters. They are almost surrounded in Aleppo, the largest city in northern Syria that since 2011 has been the center of rebel efforts to depose the tyrannical Bashar al-Assad regime. A military and humanitarian disaster is unfolding as 50,000 refugees fleeing Aleppo gather near a closed Turkish border crossing. The UN says 300,000 Aleppo civilians could be cut off from food if al-Assad forces encircle rebel-held parts of the city, leading to a new exodus of refugees. The Russian bombardment of opposition forces north of Aleppo has severed opposition supply lines, making it possible for government-aligned forces to try to encircle the city. The Russian blitz has also allowed pro-government ground forces -- Iranian-trained militiamen from Iraq, Iran and Lebanon’s shiite Hezbollah -- to push north to within 20 miles of the Turkish border, in the same area where the US and Turkey plan to carve out an opposition-held zone to combat ISIS forces approaching from the east. ~~~~~ Secretary of State John Kerry said Tuesday : “We are not blind to what is happening. We are all very, very aware of how critical this moment is.” Kerry spoke as he prepares for a meeting in Munich of stakeholders from outside ­Syria. The Thursday meeting could be the end of a three-month effort by Kerry to unite powerful countries on all sides of the conflict -- from Russia and Iran on behalf of the al-Assad government, to the United States and its partners on the opposition side -- to try to find a political solution permitting them all to focus their efforts on defeating ISIS. But, a senior advisor to Syrian President al-Assad told Reuters she does not expect diplomacy to succeed while foreign states maintain support for insurgents. ~~~~~ A million migrants and refugees fleeing the region, most of them Syrians, have already arrived in Europe, creating political and social tensions that threaten the European Union's unity built since 1945. Peter Wittig, Germany’s ambassador to the United States, describes the situation as an existential threat to Europe : “The United States has been slow to recognize this is a much bigger thing than anything else we’ve experienced since the beginning of the European Union. We didn’t see it earlier, we were totally unprepared....We’re not blaming the United States.” ~~~~~ French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius, who is resigning to take another government position, on Wednesday questioned the US commitment to resolving the crisis in Syria, saying its "ambiguous" policy contributes to the problem : "There are ambiguities, including among the actors of the coalition...I'm not going to repeat what I've said before about the main pilot of the coalition," Fabius told reporters, in a clear reference to the United States, "But we don't have the feeling that there is a very strong commitment...I'm not sure that the end of Mr. Obama's mandate will push him to act as much as his minister declares (publicly)," he added, referring to Secretary of State Kerry. "There are words, but actions are different and obviously the Iranians and Russians feel that." Fabius, whose country has been a key backer of the Syrian opposition, said : "When you add (Assad's) brutality, Russia and Iran's complicity and the ambiguity, you get the drama taking place in Aleppo," Fabius said. ~~~~~ Dear readers, a year ago we worried that President Obama's refusal to engage in Syria and Iraq would give Russia the Middle East power position. We now see this becoming reality, as Russian support drives the al-Assad regime toward victory. And, Putin has collaterally destabilized Europe with a refugee influx, weakening EU support for eastern EU and NATO states facing Russia's Ukraine aggression. Syria peace negotiation collapse could lead Obama finally to decide to fully arm and back rebel groups. It is far more likely that he will remain aloof, making it unlikely US allies can defeat al-Assad. Obama will become the second US President in 40 years to be defeated by Russian-backed regimes. Saigon. Aleppo. Is Kiev next?