While the Democrats Falter with Hillary, the GOP Looks to the Future

The key news in Saturday Politics this week is that Hillary Clinton has turned over to the FBI her private email server. Mrs. Clinton's sidden announcement has sown near panic in Democratic leader circles. She gave up not only the server but also a thumb drive containing backup copies of emails that was being held by her lawyer. The question most Democrats are asking is why the former Secretary of State had resisted for months turning over the server only to give it up now. The answer in all probability is that the decision was made very quickly after intelligence community inspectors general revealed that two of a randomly selected group of her emails contained Top Secret material. The mainstream media and Democrat consultants are now arguing for Mrs. Clinton in several directions : **the material was labeled Top Secret after her emails - not clear; **the material was sent to her - irrelevant; **she didn't know the material she emailed was Top Secret - ignorance of the law is no defense but in any case, Clinton was head of the State Departmrnt and was ultimately responsible for control of documents and should have sought expert departmental advice; **the State Department's unclassified email system has been penetrated by Russian hackers, so her use of her home server made no difference - a completely false argument akin to saying that because prisoners occasionally escape, we may as well leave prison doors unlocked; and, **the government marks too many items as Top Secret - if so, change the regulations, but no one can ignore binding regulations they don't like. ~~~~~ And, even if the emails called out by the intelligence community prove innocuous, Clinton will still face questions about whether she set up the private server with the aim of avoiding scrutiny, whether emails she deleted because she said they were personal were actually work-related, and whether she appropriately shielded such emails from possible foreign spies and hackers. Former intelligence officials say it's a certainty that her server was compromised by foreign intelligence services. Former CIA case officer Jason Matthews, an expert in Russian intelligence, has said that unless they were encrypted to US government standards, "...there s a 100% chance that all emails sent and received by her, including all the electronic correspondence stored on her server in her Chappaqua residence, were targeted and collected by the Russian equivalent of NSA." ~~~~~ The email scandal and Hillary Clinton's serious mishandling of damage control, coupled with new polls that suggest Clinton is vulnerable. Already, 57% of voters say Mrs. Clinton is “not honest and trustworthy,” according to the July 28 Quinnipiac poll. Her email disaster will continue to weaken her and give Republicans reasons to attack Clinton's competence and fitness for office. ~~~~~ Iowa poll results reflect Hillary Clinton's problems. First, Donald Trump is solidifying his position as GOP frontrunner.He tops the GOP field in Iowa with 22% and is the candidate seen as best able to handle top issues -- including the economy, illegal immigration and terrorism. He is the candidate most often cited as having the best chance of winning the general election, and, by a wide margin, as the candidate most likely to change the way things work in Washington -- 44% say Trump can do that, and no other candidate hits double-digits. Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson follows Trump in overall preference at 14%, bumping Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker down to 9%. Walker is nearly even with several other candidates -- Senator Ted Cruz at 8%, and Carly Fiorina and Governor Huckabee at 7%. Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush tied at 5% with Senators Rand Paul and Marco Rubio. The rest of the field stands at 3% or less. ~~~~~ While Republicans are strengthening their position with Iowans, the first CNN/ ORC poll of likely Democratic caucus-goers in Iowa shows Hillary Clinton firmly in the leadibg, with a 50% to 31% lead over Vermont socialist Senator Bernie Sanders. Vice President Joe Biden, who is now seriously evaluating a run for the presidency but who is not yet a candidate, is in third place with 12%. But, while Mrs. Clinton can beat Bernie Sanders, who nevertheless is drawing much larger crowds than Clinton in Iowa, she cannot beat four Republicans in a general election poll. Ben Carson performs best against Hillary, beating her by four percentage points, 44–40, The other three GOPers who came out ahead of Clinton are Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, leading her 44–43, and Florida Senator Marco Rubio, who leads her 43–42. But, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush trails her by four points, 44–40. Kentucky Senator Rand Paul and Donald Trump both trail Clinton by three points, 43–40. Since the poll’s margin of error is four points, all these GOP candidates may be beating or close to equaling Hillary Clinton. ~~~~~ Outsider candidates dominate the Republican presidential race -- Carly Fiorina, Ben Carson and their leader Donald Trump. It shows just how angry the GOP base is with its elected political leaders. Conservative Iowa radio host Steve Deace told The Hill : "This is a paradigm shift, The base of the party is in open revolt. We’re watching a political party dissolve. It’s a civil war and the GOP as it’s constructed may not survive.” But, others think Republican voters will eventually come together around a traditional GOP candidate like Jeb Bush. These analysts believe Trump’s rise is a product of his celebrity and media focus that will finally end. They think that neither Carson nor Fiorina will be able to compete in the fundraising fight, or pull together the political operation to make a serious run. But right now, the anti-establishment wing of the GOP is leading. Carly Fiorina and Ben Carson are rising in polls, moving into the top tier of candidates in Iowa and New Hampshire. A Suffolk University poll released this week shows voters in Iowa believe Carson matched Rubio as one of the winners in the first prime-time debate. Fiorina told Breitbart News after the debate : “Change was promised, but people don’t see that change...if congressional leaders can’t produce results, they need to step aside.” These comments put Fiorina with grassroots critics of Speaker John Boehner and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. “The political class has weaved an imaginary tale that they’re the only ones who can solve our problems,” Ben Carson told CBS this week. “But the fact of the matter is if you take the collective political experience of everyone in Congress, which is just under 9,000 years, you’ll see that it really has not solved our problems.” ~~~~~ Many conservatives believe GOP leaders made too many promises in the 2014 election campaign, when Republicans won an historically large majority in the House and took control of the Senate from the Democrats. Nothing special has happened -- no tax reform or Obamacare repeal or illegal immigrant initiative -- although these are in the pipeline. Even Trump's critics say his popularity is linked not just to his celebrity status, but to the fact that he doesn’t sound like a politician. Texas-based Republican strategist Matt Mackowiak estimates that those in open revolt with the party constitute about a quarter of Republican primary voters. He says the outsiders will have an impact on the race by forcing candidates with establishment appeal to find new ways of addressing the frustration in the base. ~~~~~ Dear readers, the Republican Party represents the aspirations of the majority of today's Americans. Lincoln and Reagan would be the first to agree that we must live in our time and look forward, not backward. The GOP message -- opportunity, personal effort that's not stymied by big government, and love of country and Constitution that reaches out to include everyone -- resonates with today's Americans. The Democrats can only field candidates -- Clinton and Sanders and perhaps Biden -- who look back to FDR's 1930s and LBJ's 1960s, who offer ideas rooted in an American century that no longer exists. The GOP is looking forward with Trump and Fiorina and Carson and Rubio and Cruz and Walker to answer the 21st century's challenges by living in the present and preparing for the future.