What to Expect in Tonight's Debate

Tonight's the night...to quote Rod Stewart's song. The primetime 2016 Republican debate officially opens the GOP run for the White House. I'm not particularly in favor of political debates because they tend to be loaded with obvious questions from journalists that are not answerable in the 60 to 90 seconds allotted for each candidate's response. Tonight's debate exacerbates the problem because there are 10 candidates whose individual answer time over two hours is minimal. Adding to the problem is the twist that a candidate can get an extra 30 seconds to rebut an attack that names him. This will only serve to prevent any highlighting of the differences among the candidates -- would you as a debater mention an opponent by name so as to give him extra time with the TV camera? No. ~~~~~ So, why watch the debate? For the same reason we watch NASCAR or Formula 1 races -- to see the crashes. And there will undoubtedly be some. Most analysts are expecting Donald Trump to lead the demolition derby. I'm not so sure. More likely, one of the candidates in the middle of the pack will try so hard to boost his position that he will get something all wrong. We all remember the "Oops" uttered by Rick Perry that effectively ended his 2012 presidential ambitions and still clings to him like the odor of mothballs as he tries again to be a serious first-tier candidate in 2016. Of course, one of the 5%ers may break out and shine. But, my bet is that we will see someone crash and burn tonight. ~~~~~ Another thing to watch for is how the Republican candidates handle Hillary Clinton during tonight's debate. Will they mention her name or emphasize her position on an issue in order to strengthen their own more conservative position? That would give Mrs. Clinton a prominence that would be exploited later by her campaign team and Democratic leaders. But the problem is that if they ignore her, it could have exactly the same effect. So, watch for the any indications that Hillary is haunting the debate. ~~~~~ One possibility is that the journalists will drag Hillary into the debate as part of their questions. This could be trickier for the journalists than for the candidates, suggesting that the media favors Clinton for 2016. We remember Candy Crowley actually correcting Mitt Romney during a 2012 one-on-one debate with Barack Obama -- only to be proven wrong days later. But the damage to Romney had been done. So, be very attentive when the journalists are speaking -- nuances could tell a tale of subjectivity instead of objectivity. ~~~~~ Of course, the elephant in the room will be at the center stage podium. Donald Trump has said he won't attack anyone unless they attack him first. He says he wants to talk about immigration, securing the southern border with a wall, and negotiating with other nations. Governor Scott Walker and former Governor Jeb Bush will be on either side of Trump. Despite Walker's good poll results he is not regularly covered by the media, so I will be listening to his answers to get a better idea of who he is. ~~~~~ And, dear readers, there will be Jeb Bush -- the imponderable Jeb. He has just made another comment that has sent the media and Hillary Clinton into paroxysms of rejection. The Washington Post had this to say : "Republican presidential candidate Jeb Bush, who has been criticized recently by some conservatives for serving on the board of a charity that gave money to Planned Parenthood, called for the organization’s defunding during an interview Tuesday." Jeb was speaking to a Southern Baptist missions conference and said : “If you took dollar for dollar, though, I’m not sure we need half a billion dollars for women’s health issues.” Jeb suggested other organizations would be better served with the money. Hillary Clinton quickly responded on Twitter : “You are absolutely, unequivocally wrong." The Bush campaign tweeted back : “What’s absolutely, unequivocally wrong is giving taxpayer $ to an org whose practices show no regard for lives of unborn.” Not satisfied, the  Bush campaign issued a clarification early Tuesday evening in which Bush said he “misspoke, as there are countless community health centers, rural clinics, and other women’s health organizations that need to be fully funded. I was referring to the hard-to-fathom $500 million in federal funding that goes to Planned Parenthood – an organization that was callously participating in the unthinkable practice of selling fetal organs." At issue are videos taken of a Planned Parenthood doctor discussing the best ways to salvage body parts before discarding an aborted foetus. Planned Parenthood has become a focal point early in the 2016 presidential campaign. Republicans are not divided by the issue. Abortion is rejected by the vast majority of the GOP -- both men and women. But, abortion sharply separates Republicans and Democrats. In answering Jeb's comment, Hillary Clinton supported the absolute right of women to abort unwanted foetal lives. She didn't seem at all concerned about the almost ghoulish practices described in the videos. Putting the ethics of the issue aside, how it unfolded shows a 'weakness' in Jeb Bush's approach to current political discussion. He prefers to give lengthy comments and answers, without using the 10-second soundbite approach the media loves. So, Jeb is easily misquoted because the context is ignored. He rarely misspeaks. He is badly quoted. Tonight, cramped into a 1-minute answer format, he will surely be badly quoted again -- and that will lead to Jeb's team yet again saying he misspoke. So, listen extra carefully when Jeb Bush speaks tonight. This will help you later when he is inevitably misquoted. Who will "win" tonight? Nobody. But, I think three candidates will do well -- Trump, Rubio and Christie, who is the only debater likely to match Trump in any toe-to-toe confrontation.