The 2016 Battle Is Being Fought on the Left and Right Poles of American Politics

I'm beginning to believe that American political pundits, pollsters and politicians, and even presidential candidates themselves, have got it wrong. We are being told that the 2016 race is showing that Americans favor "outsiders" because the "insiders" have failed to arouse interest but that it will all change as the primary elections begin. Nobody is talking about the other key component - the polarization of American politics. But consider the political issues that the two poles of America support. ~~~~~ For the conservative right of the Republican Party - let's call it the Right Pole - the issues are smaller government, a balanced budget, peo-business regulations, a strong military, closed and enforced borders with deportation of illegal immigrants, the full right to life of the unborn, a Christian view of marriage as between a man and a woman, emphasis on religious freedoms, an end to Common Core, and the repeal of Obamacare. ~~~~~ For the progressive socialist-leaning left of the Democratic Party - let's call it the Left Pole - the issues are more social spending, especially for higher Social Security benefits, amnesty for illegal immigrants and open borders, higher taxes to create income equality, tighter banking regulations, less engagement internationally with reduced military spending, single payer government-furnished healthcare, and bigger federal government in all areas including Common Core education. ~~~~~ Now, consider the Right Pole's preferred 2016 candidates -- Ted Cruz, Scott Walker, Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina, Marco Rubio and the leader, Donald Trump. And consider the Left Core's preferred candidates -- Bernie Sanders, and the undeclared Elizabeth Warren. These politicians are not "outsiders," they represent the politically active cores of each party clustered at the poles of American political thought. They are, in effect, the real insiders of American politics. The real outsiders occupy the middle space that is rapidly being emptied. They are Jeb Bush, Rick Perry, John Kasich, Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden if he jumps into the race. ~~~~~ I read a Guardian essay this weekend - a British take on the American presidential race and why Donald Trump can't win. The writer tried to make the case that Trump will fail for the same reasons that Giuliani failed in 2008. He cited analysts who called Giuliani’s lead a phantom lead. He was ahead in the polls in a race that most people were mostly ignoring. David Karol, a professor of government and politics at the University of Maryland and co-author of the book The Party Decides, told the Guardian : “Giuliani was better known than the others, except for McCain. The other candidates [Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Ron Paul] were not that well known. Over the course of the campaign, voters got to know the others.” And when voters started to pay attention, as Iowa neared, they discovered that Giuliani was a thrice-married, formerly pro-choice, kind of rude person from New York. “Rudy didn’t even care enough about conservatives to lie to us,” said an Iowa leader. Giuliani, despite claiming the mantle of America’s Mayor, never had Trump’s star power. Giuliani, however, had strengths that Trump does not. He had an admired record as a public servant. He also boasted at least some party support, winning the endorsements of Pat Robertson and Rick Perry. For the Guardian writer, the Giuliani case is one of many in which a frontrunner in national polls in a presidential race has spectacularly imploded. Both Perry and Newt Gingrich opened up early, double-digit leads on the field in 2011, and Herman Cain enjoyed a brief, smaller lead over eventual nominee Mitt Romney. It’s not just a Republican phenomenon, according to the Guardian essay. The 2004 Democratic race saw two substantial - but ultimately failed - frontrunners in Joe Lieberman and Howard Dean, who held a double-digit lead in Iowa as late as December, only to come in third in the caucuses a month later. ~~~~~ That's one way to explain why Giuliani and the others lost in the race to a nomination -- they just ran our of supporters as they became better known. But the truth is that undisclosed negative facts about some of them unfolded publicly and torpedoed their campaigns. That makes them a lot more like Hillary "private email server" Clinton than like Donald Trump. And it's what made me reconsider just what is going on in 2016 presidential politics. ~~~~~ Trump leads the 17-candidate GOP field with moderates (29%), 'somewhat conservative' voters (25%), 'very conservative' voters (21%), men (26%), women (22%), middle aged voters (26%), younger voters (25%), and seniors (20%) alike. If voters had to choose just between Right Pole candidates -- Trump and Ben Carson (59/35), Marco Rubio (51/43), or Scott Walker (50/43) -- Trump would win. And he would lead Bush 50/42 in a head to head. In addition, Bush has a negative 10 favorability rating (37/47) with 'very conservative' voters and that skepticism among conservatives could sink his chances of winning the GOP nomination unless he can do something to change it. In the latest Gallup survey, 55% of all Republicans said they had a favorable view of Trump while 38% said they had an unfavorable opinion -- a net 17% favorability rating. ~~~~~ On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton leads with 55% to 19% for Bernie Sanders. But consider this. A higher than usual 20% of Democratic primary voters in North Carolina identify themselves as conservatives and in a recent Gallup poll with that group, Clinton only gets 26%. The only other group Clinton is under 50% with is white voters, among whom she leads Sanders 47/25. Clinton trails 8 of the 11 Republican hopefuls in hypothetical North Carolina match ups, although most of the margins are close. The strongest performers against her are Ben Carson who leads 47/40 and Marco Rubio who has a 45/41 advantage. Carson and Rubio have been the strongest performing Republicans in the general election in all three of the Gallup polls taken in July but after the debate. ~~~~~ So, dear readers, when we are regaled with the prospects for Hillary Clinton against Jeb Bush in the general election -- because, the analysts will tell us, the "outsiders" will all fade away -- we ought to remember that these two are fighting it out in the center of US politics, searching for votes among moderate Republicans, Democrats and Independents who don't control either party's primary election process -- the Left and Right Poles control it. The center represents a shrinking piece of the American political pie. The Right Pole candidates are going after the votes of Americans for whom small government and the Constitution - especially the First and Second Amendment rights to freedom of religion and the right to bear arms - are monumentally important. The Left Pole is courting the votes of free-spending progressives and the Hispanic, African American and LGBT special interest groups who think the Right Pole is antipathetic to their causes - certainly true for some issues. I believe the Republican and Democratic candidates nominated to run in the 2016 general election will come from the Left and Right Poles. The strength of their personal position with the political center will determine whom they choose as their Vice President running mate and whether their VP comes from the center. Every American believes the center will always be there. The critical 2016 battle for the heart and soul of America will be waged between the Left Pole and the Right Pole.