2016 : Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton and the Republican Field

Vice President Joe Biden and his inner circle have reportedly begun to explore a possible presidential run that would shake up the Democratic field and deliver the first direct threat to Hillary Clinton. Several people who have spoken to Biden or those closest to him say Biden’s advisors have started to reach out to Democratic leaders and donors who either have not yet committed to Mrs. Clinton or who have begun to worry about what they see as her growing vulnerabilities as a candidate. Steve Ricchetti, Biden’s chief of staff, is leading tbe series of contacts that are taking place discreetly. The support for Biden reflects growing concerns among Democrats that Hillary Clinton could lose in Iowa and New Hampshire, as the populist message of her opponent, Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, draws large and growing crowds. At the same time, the slow trickle of news about Hillary Clinton’s highly unusual, and in some instances probably criminal, use of a private email server when she was secretary of state, and the looming October Benghazi hearings, continue to push voters away from her, as reflected in falling polls. ~~~~~ While Joe Biden considers whether to get into the race, Republicans are preparlng for the first 2016 presidential debate to be held Thursday evening. The top ten candidates will appear in the prime time debate and in the build-up, Donald Trump has surged into the national lead in GOP polls, with Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush following, according to a new NBC News/ Wall Street Journal poll. Trump is the first choice of 19% of GOP primary voters, while 15% back Walker and 14% back Bush. Ten percent support retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson. All other Republican candidates are in single digits. Texas Senator Ted Cruz is favored by 9% of primary voters; former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee and Kentucky Senator Rand Paul are tied with 6% support; Florida Senator Marco Rubio is at 5%; and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, former Texas Governor Rick Perry and Ohio Governoe John Kasich are tied with 3% each. Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal and former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum each have 1% support, and four candidates - former HP head Carly Fiorina, South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham, former New York Governor George Pataki and former Virginia Governor Jim Gilmore - stand at less than 1% support. ~~~~~ Only the top 10 GOP candidates -- calculated by an average of the last five major national polls -- will be eligible to participate in Thursday's FOX News main debate, according to the network's rules. The others will face off earlier in the day. Including the new NBC/WSJ poll results, NBC estimates that the top ten candidates at this time are : Trump 19.8%, Walker 13.2%, Bush 13%, Paul 6.4%, Carson 6.4%, Rubio 6.2%, Huckabee 5.8%, Cruz 5.8%, Christie 3.2%, Kasich 3.2%. ~~~~~ Trump, who declared his candidacy six weeks ago, has risen rapidly in the polls. In early June, just 1% of GOP primary voters said Trump was their first choice for the GOP nomination. His surge has impacted other Republican candidates -- Bush's support has fallen from 22% to 14%. Walker has seen a decrease of two percentage points, and Rubio's poll results have dropped from 14% support in June to 4% support now. Trump is running first in the polls with independent-leaning Republican primary voters, winning 19% of their support. And he is supported by about 25% of GOP voters who say that they could not see themselves voting for Jeb Bush for president in 2016. Those who consider themselves conservative are split between Trump and Walker, with about 18% backing each man. Tea Party supporters favor Ted Cruz (22%), with Trump (20%) and Walker (20%) close behind. But, it is worth remembering that the NBC News/ Wall Street Journal poll that was conducted between July 26 and 30, interviewed only 252 Republican primary voters and so its margin of error is high at ±6.17%. ~~~~~ Dear readers, we'll learn a lot about Donald Trump's staying power on Thursday, but in the Sunday political talk shows yesterday, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie was on CNN's State of the Union, where he made the quote of the day by giving the definitive statement on the Iran nuclear deal. Christie, a former US Attorney, said : "I'm a law enforcement guy...can you imagine getting a search warrant, knocking on the door with it in your hand and saying, 'By the way, I'll be back in 24 days to enforce this.'? It's absurd." Amen to that, Governor Christie.