Let Us not Jump into Iran's Outstretched Arms too Hastily

The Iran nuclear negotiations continue. Here are the important details in a 'large' nutshell. ~~~~~ Talks resumed in Geneva Wednesday aimed at finding a deal that will begin the rollback of Iran's nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. Wednesday began with senior envoys reviewing a draft, to make it acceptable to both Teheran and the six world powers negotiating with it. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said as this week's talks began that they expected the West to have a unified position, noting that differences among the six powers had set back the talks. The AP reported that Araghchi said : "What we are trying now is to rebuild confidence that we lost in the previous round of negotiations." He spoke of a "misunderstanding or...mismanagement in the previous round," and of the "difficult job" of trying to bridge differences. Later, some headway seemed to have been made, with Araghchi telling Iran's IRNA news agency that "we regained some of our lost trust." He also told IRNA that talks have included possible ways to reduce sanctions on Iranian oil sales and banking. The US and its partners have indicated that they would offer some sanction concessions, such as unfreezing Iranian bank accounts from previous oil sales. This would be during a six-month period in which the parties would pursue a comprehensive agreement to ensure that Teheran's nuclear enrichment program is solely for civilian purposes. The western partners point out that Iran would receive only limited sanction relief under such a first-step deal, with no easing of the harshest measures that make it nearly impossible for Iran to sell oil, its main revenue maker. An anonymous member of the US Congress and legislative aides have suggested to AP that the relief would amount to $6 - 10 billion, based on what they called Obama administration estimates. Sanction rollbacks must be limited to satisfy influential members of Congress, who argue that sanctions have brought Iran to the negotiating table and cannot be relaxed until Teheran offers significant concessions. And on the Iranian side, hardliner politicians and their millions of supporters do not trust Rouhani, elected in September, fearing that his team will give away Iran's right to enrich uranium but not get enough in terms of sanctions relief over the six-months of any first-stage agreement. France's concern that the negotiators were rushing into a flawed deal with Iran helped delay an agreement during a session two weeks ago. French President Francois Hollande re-iterated France's position last week before the Israeli Knesset, saying that France will "maintain the sanctions as long as we are not certain that Iran has definitively and irreversibly renounced its military program to obtain nuclear weapons....France will not let Iran arm itself with nuclear weapons." This week in Geneva, an Iranian delegation member said his country recognizes that core oil and banking sanctions could not be lifted immediately but suggested Iran expects some relief in those sectors over the six-month period of the preliminary agreement. He also said Iran was ready to discuss a limit on its uranium enrichment, which can create both reactor fuel and the core of nuclear warheads. But he said that Iran wants at least an indirect mention in the first-stage agreement of Teheran's right to uranium enrichment, which the United States and its allies have refused to do. Iranian leaders have refused to consider giving up Iran's ability to make nuclear fuel, which is the central sticking point of the talks because the same process used to make reactor stock can be used to make weapons-grade material. Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, voiced support for the talks Wednesday but insisted there are limits to what Teheran will deal away at the negotiating table. He blasted Israel as "the rabid dog of the region" - comments rejected by French President Francois Hollande as "unacceptable." Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in Moscow to meet with Russian President Putin when the Ayatollah made his anti-semitic remark, renewed his demand for a full stop to all Iranian nuclear programs that could be turned from peaceful uses to making weapons. Netanyahu urged the world to see the "real Iran." That, he said was not the YouTube message posted by Zarif saying Iran wants peace, but Khamenei calling Jews "rabid dogs." he told a gathering of Russian Jews. Talks have continued since Wednesday and by Saturday, despite the secrecy surrounding them, leaks suggest they have reached agreement about ways Iran could retain some level of enrichment, but at a level far below what's need for weapons. Other roadblocks not resolved include the level of sanctions relief and the future of a plutonium reactor under construction at Arak that the western partners want closed, because plutonium can also be used to make weapons. Late Saturday, no deal had been announced and it seems that negotiations will continue Sunday. However, US Secretary of State Kerry's spokeswoman said he still plans to travel to London on Sunday for meetings on other Middle East issues. Kerry is to meet with Libyan Prime Minister Ali Zidan in London to discuss the security situation and ongoing political reforms in that country. Kerry and his counterparts from Russia, Britain, France, China and Germany joined the Geneva talks this weekend after Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif and top European Union diplomat Catherine Ashton reported progress on enrichment and other issues. The foreign ministers themselves sought to discourage the idea that because they came to Geneva the talks have been successful. British Foreign Secretary William Hague spoke of "very difficult negotiations," over issues that blocked agreement earlier. Hague told reporters. "We're here because they're difficult, and they remain difficult." The key difficulties? -- Iran's insistence that it has no interest in nuclear weapons but needs enrichment to generate electricity and for scientific and medical purposes is viewed with skepticism by the West because of Teheran's earlier efforts to hide enrichment. Israel, not a party to the talks, opposes allowing any Iranian enrichment capability. Iran says it can freeze enrichment at its highest-known achieved level - 20%. But critics worry that Iran could ramp up to weapons grade enrichment quickly if the 20% threshold is allowed to remain. ~~~~~ Dear readers, it may seem like a diplomatic dance that ordinary people could quickly end with an agreement. But, it is important to remember that a nuclear-capable or nuclear-armed Iran would change the world balance of power forever. Not only would a nuclear Iran be ready to provide nuclear arms to Syria's al-Assad, Hezbollah and Hamas, it would also be able to attack and destroy much of Israel, one of its often-voiced goals. Thus, the Middle East would be forced into a nuclear arms race, with Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt, the Gulf States and all sunnis feeling obliged to be prepared for an Iranian nuclear attack. Farther afield, Iran could provide nuclear arms to the Taliban, al-Qaida, and North Korea, with whom it is already consulting on nuclear technology. The entire world would be plunged back into the Cold War nuclear arms race. So, it is better to rely on sanctions to get a good deal for the world rather than to give in to sophisticated Iranian negotiating techniques. As Israel has said, it will never allow Iran to have nuclear arms, whether it has to act with allies or alone. Far better to hang tough, support Israel, and France, and bring Iran to its senses, if possible. If not, the military option is still available.