The Missing Element in the Egyptian Tragedy is Leadership

Events are fluid and rapidly changing today in Egypt. Here is a summary of what I have seen and heard reported. *Friday's marches were for the most part peaceful, with 33 deaths and 180 injuries reported by the Egyptian Health Ministry. There was sporadic gunfire and CNN reported early today that some pro-Morsi Brotherhood marchers carried hidden homemade pistols and pellet guns. The Egyptian army observed the marchers and prevented entry into Tahrir and Ramses Squares. The curfew is now in effect and seems largely to be effective. *The Brotherhood has called for daily marches until Morsi is reinstated as president. *Attacks on Christian churches have subsided - or are not being reported. *The Egyptian ambassador to the United States told a CNN anchor that the pro-Morsi group has beheaded at least one policeman. *Middle East countries are sticking to their previous positions - either condemning or supporting Wednesday’s crackdown by the Egyptian army against Moslem Brotherhood protesters. Turkey, Iran and Qatar, which identify with the Brotherhood and its Islamist agenda, condemned the violent dispersal of the protests, while Saudi Arabia and the UAE continued to back the military. *The European Union has called for a review of its relations with Egypt. *Israel is watching in silence. If any country needs a stable and friendly Egypt, it is Israel and the silence reflects the Jewish fears that an islamist Egypt could emerge. *Expert Middle East watchers are in unanimous agreement that whatever influence America once had in Egypt has largely disappeared because of President Obama's lack of a coherent Middle East policy. Their conclusion is that the $1.5 billion that the US is using as a lever in trying to make the Egyptian military adhere to a policy that welcomes the Brotherhood into its political fabric will not work - because the aid the Egyptian military is receiving from its Arab neighbors far exceeds the small amount Obama is dangling. ~~~~~ Dear readers, it is not at all clear that the Egyptian military is either anti-democratic or excessively violent. Their program of presenting a draft constitution is on target to be completed in August. They were very careful today in the face of very large pro-Morsi / anti-mitary marches. And the marchers themselves were restrained and peaceful for the most part. While the two sides in this battle are far apart politically and culturally, their rhetoric is similar. They seek democracy. They want a popularly elected government. They deplore the violence. These positions may well be cynically made for TV consumption. But they could offer the chance to talk -- if there were a leader capable of bringing them together. It is a truism that leadership is never missed until it is needed. But, at that point, it is too late.