President Trump Is not Talking to Putin at the G-20, but Israel Will Be in Both Leaders' Minds

TODAY, PRESIDENT TRUMP IS AT THE G-20, AND ISRAEL IS IN THE WINGS. • • • NO TRUMP-PUTIN MEETING AT THE G-20. Russian-Ukrainian tensions have shifted the focus of the G-20 summit from economics to diplomacy, but power struggles in the Middle East between the US and Russia, Sunnis and Shiites, and Israelis and Arabs are likely to be discussed, too. Israel Hayom's Yoav Limor wrote on Friday that : "Argentina is bracing for diplomatic drama. Selected as the first ‎South American host of the G-20 summit -- the powerful ‎international forum of governments and ‎central bank chiefs ‎that aim to shape policy for the ‎promotion of ‎international financial stability -- Buenos Aires has already become the ‎scene of a showdown between Russia and Ukraine, after Russia opened fire on three Ukrainian Navy ships on Sunday and seized ‎their crews in the Kerch Strait, between the Black Sea and the ‎Sea of Azov‏.‏ The incident quickly spiraled into an international crisis that has ‎clouded the summit's agenda. It seems that, much like in the ‎days of the Cold War, everyone is waiting to see what the United States ‎and Russia will do. ‎US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir ‎Putin were supposed to meet over the weekend on the sidelines ‎of the summit, but Trump announced Thursday that he was ‎canceling the meeting, citing his disapproval over Russia's refusal ‎to release the Ukrainian ships and sailors. ‎It is doubtful whether this meeting could have changed the ‎situation on the Russia-Ukraine border, as it is far too rife with ‎emotion and internal politics that are now being exploited by ‎both parties. The Russians have reinforced their troops on the ‎border and the Ukrainians have declared a tentative, one-month ‎state of emergency. ‎Putin was also less than impressed by the joint air maneuvers ‎conducted this week by the United States, France and Britain, ‎which for the first time included F-35 stealth fighter jets. The ‎move sought to send a clear message to Moscow, but as far as ‎Putin is concerned, this was just another move in the global ‎chess game the Kremlin is playing." • We are looking at the Buenos Aires G-20 from the perspective of Israeli media because the US-Russia-Ukraine issues will have an impact on Israel, with the other glaring US-Russia power struggle being played out in the Middle east and so involves not only eastern Europe but also Sunnis and ‎Shiites, and Israelis and Arabs. ‎Israel Hayom says : "Israel's focus remains the developments in Syria. This ‎tumultuous arena seems to have calmed in recent weeks. This ‎may be a cooling effect of the September 17 downing of a Russian plane ‎by Syrian air defenses trying to counter an Israeli airstrike. Since that incident, all sides have been acting differently : Israel ‎has been less aggressive in its operations, Iran has reduced its ‎attempts to smuggle weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon via Syria, ‎and Damascus has shifted its focus to its own rehabilitation after ‎the seven-year civil war. ‎Russia's bombastic statements also seem different on the ‎ground : The S-300 anti-aircraft defense systems deployed in ‎Syria in the wake of the September 17 incident have yet to be ‎declared operational, nor has a timetable been set for handing ‎them over to the Syrian army's control. Add to this the ‎immediate implications of the US sanctions on Iran -- especially ‎with respect to Teheran reducing its financial aid to Hezbollah, ‎which is suffering from severe financial distress -- the situation is ‎very different than previously assessed, even if it remains highly ‎volatile." • In addition, Israel Hayom notes that this status, "the ramifications of which extend far beyond Syria, has ‎prompted Israel is engaged in intensive efforts to form ‎international and regional alliances that will change the regional ‎balance of power in its favor."‎ One of the most discussed of Israel's alliance-forming efforts has been to try to "placate American ire over Saudi Crown Prince ‎Mohammed bin Salman's alleged involvement in the murder of exiled Saudi ‎journalist Jamal Khashoggi are true, and these efforts have ‎succeeded and have contributed to the budding relationship ‎between Jerusalem and Riyadh.‎' • But, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected visit ‎to Bahrain -- after his October 28 visit to Oman -- an indication, says Israel Hayom that "we see a new Middle East, one less naive than in the past, where ‎alliances are based on strong military, economic and ‎technological interests." ‎ • • • THE UNITED STATES IN THE MIDDLE EAST. President Trump ‎told the Washington Post this week that US forces remain in ‎Syria in part "for Israel." The clear statement that Washington stands with Israel provides a reason for America to stay in Syria, but it also, according to Israel Hayom raises "the possibility that Israel will now be ‎blamed for every American casualty in the Middle East." If ‎America remains in the region mainly to ‎prevent Iran from gaining more power, the stabilization of ‎Iraq and maintenance of a balance of power against Russia and its client state, Iran, are also on the US Middle East agenda.But, there is no doubt that the Trump administration has made it clear to the world that Israel ‎does not stand alone in its efforts to stop Iran's regional ‎aspirations. ‎ • One proof of the continuing and re-enforced US support for Israel was to be found at the UN this week. The Associated Press and Israel Hayom staff reported that : "The United States circulated a UN resolution Thursday condemning the terrorist group Hamas, which rules the Gaza Strip, 'for repeatedly firing rockets into Israel and for inciting violence' that puts civilians at risk. The draft General Assembly resolution, obtained by the AP, 'demands that Hamas and other militant actors, including Palestinian Islamic Jihad, cease their activity,' including the recently adopted practice of launching 'airborne incendiary devices.' The resolution, which would not be legally binding, was circulated as the 193-member world body was preparing to vote on four pro-Palestinian resolutions. The US mission said it expects a vote on the Hamas resolution as early as Monday. If adopted, it would be the first resolution condemning Hamas, which has controlled the Gaza Strip since 2007." Outgoing US Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley has repeatedly accused the United Nations of anti-Israel bias, citing the General Assembly's annual adoption of numerous resolutions supporting the Palestinians. In June, America withdrew from the Geneva-based Human Rights Council over the body's longstanding bias against Israel. In June, Ambassador Haley also sought to amend an Arab-backed General Assembly resolution blaming Israel for violence in Gaza and deploring its "excessive use of force" by adding a condemnation of Hamas attacks on Israel. The amendment was approved by a 62-58 vote, with 42 abstentions, but it failed because this was below the two-thirds majority needed. The resolution was later approved by a vote of 120-8 with 45 abstentions. AP and Israel Hayom reported Friday that : "The latest draft resolution on Hamas does not include references to previous Security Council resolutions sought by some European Union members that call for a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and criticize Israel, including for settlement building. But the US draft does reaffirm support 'for a just, lasting and comprehensive peace between Israelis and Palestinians, in accordance with international law, and bearing in mind relevant UN resolutions.' Sweden's UN ambassador, Olof Skoog, told reporters earlier Thursday : 'We don't mind condemning Hamas. They deserve to be condemned.' But he said that 'we also need to be very careful' that Security Council or General Assembly resolutions 'always stress the fact that there needs to be a two-state solution.' " A key EU diplomat told the AP that the final US draft will have the support of the 28 EU nations, which would be a step forward for Israel at the UN, because the US draft resolution states that violence against civilians, "particularly acts of terror, as well as all acts of provocation, incitement and destruction, only serve to erode trust and hinder efforts to bring about a peaceful solution." It also condemns Hamas for using resources that could go to meeting "critical needs of civilians" to instead construct tunnels used to infiltrate Israel and for equipment to launch rockets into civilian areas. The draft resolution also calls on all parties to respect international human rights and humanitarian law including on protecting civilians and to halt intimidation and violence against medical and humanitarian personnel, and it encourages the reconciliation of rival Palestinian groups "and concrete steps to reunite the Gaza Strip and the West Bank under the Palestinian Authority." The US draft resolution, in addition, urges UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and Middle East Special Coordinator Nickolay Mladenov to help "de-escalate the situation and address urgent infrastructure, humanitarian, and economic development needs." As we would expect, the AP and Israel Hayom reported that on Tuesday, Palestinian Ambassador to the UN Riyad Mansour called the draft US resolution a continuation of the "attack against the Palestinian people," citing the Trump administration's decision last December to recognize Jerusalem as Israel's capital, ignoring the Palestinians' demand that east Jerusalem be the capital of its future state, as well as the cutoff of US funding for the Palestinian refugee agency, UNRWA, and closing of the Palestine Liberation Office in Washington. But, these are all indications of the depth of US support for Israel, while at the same time the US is seeking to find a way forward to improve the conditions of Palestinians, especially those under Hamas in Gaza. Israeli Ambassador to the UN Danny Danon told reporters Tuesday that "the fact that people discuss Hamas in the UN is a win-win." • • • ISRAELI GAS TO EUROPE. Another sign that Israel is moving into a more secure position because of Trump administration support is the Israel-Europe Pipeline that Canada Free Press wrote about on Thursday. The Pipeline will benefit not only Israel but also the people of Europe, leading to the stability of governments, stability of energy prices, and stability in the energy markets. CFP calls it "The Geo-Political and Strategic Umbilical Cord," saying : "After fairly rapid negotiations, Israel has agreed with European nations to supply Europe with its future natural gas needs. The project will turn Israel into a significant fuel-exporting nation. Construction will begin on the longest and deepest underwater fuel pipeline in the world. 1,305 miles in length and lying 1.86 miles under the Mediterranean Sea. The $7 Billion project will take five years to complete. Natural gas will flow from Israel’s natural gas reserves in the Mediterranean via Cyprus to Greece and Italy. This multi-national pipeline will supply Europe with 125 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually by 2030. After careful strategic deliberations, Israel decided on the Cyprus-Greece-Italy connection to Europe rather than through the Turkish route. One factor in the decision was the political behavior of Tayip Erdogan, the Turkish President, toward the Jewish State. The decision has been received poorly by the Turks who were quick to sign an alternative agreement with Russia for the construction of a rival TurkStream pipeline for the delivery of Russian natural gas to Turkey. The Israeli decision may be the reason for recent provocative statements made by the Kremlin against Israel, but Israel has chosen the direct European route for important strategic, as well as economic, reasons." Canada Free Press states : "As former Greek Deputy Minister, Demitri Dollis said during the negotiations, ‘The EU will prefer the Israeli pipeline over the TurkStream project because EU countries are involved (in the Israeli project). Also, since Europe already relies heavily on Russian gas, the project is of top geo-political importance to Israel, Greece, and Europe and, for this reason, is backed by the United States. Going forward, Greece will hold strategic talks in Washington with the Trump Administration on December 13 before heading to Jerusalem for talks with the Israeli Government. As Dollis said when the new pipeline had been agreed, 'Energy and security will work to the benefit not only of Israel but for the people of Europe. It will lead to the stability of governments, stability of energy prices, stability in the energy markets.' When the fuel starts flowing it will certainly improve the relationship between the EU and Israel." AND, we should note, it will loosen somewhat the current energy stranglehold that Russia has on Europe. This may not please Germany and Chancellor Merkel, who suppots the Russia pipeline one-supplier deal with Russia, but a lot of other European countries will be sleeping easier. • • • IS THE US IN THE MIDDLE EAST ONLY FOR ISRAEL? Against the backdrop of the multitude of efforts and signals coming from President Trump and his administration, the Jerusalem Post chose Wednesday to ask the question "Why is the US in the Middle East?" The JPost article begins with this statement : "Jerusalem wants to see the US engaged, influential and active in the region. It doesn’t want to see it disengaged and concerned only about its own domestic problems. In the run-up to the 2016 US presidential campaign, one concern heard in Jerusalem about then-candidate Donald Trump was that his 'America First' policy contained the seeds of isolationism. And American isolationism is not good for Israel. Since his election, however, those concerns were largely put to rest, as Trump took a number of steps that have been extremely good for Israel. These include withdrawing from the Iranian nuclear agreement and turning the sanction screws on Teheran; moving the US Embassy to Jerusalem and challenging some of the long-held principles of how to reach an agreement between Israel and the Palestinians; and, dramatically changing the tone toward Israel both in Washington and at the UN in New York." • The JPost then noted that President's interview with the Washington Post again raised the issue of isolationism under President Trump : "The concerns about isolationism were largely put to rest, but not completely buried, and interviews such as the one Trump gave Tuesday to The Washington Post, where he discussed why the US is in the Mideast, have a tendency to bring them back to the surface. Asked about whether sanctions should be imposed on Saudi Arabia for the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in Turkey, Trump said, 'I just feel that it’s very, very important to maintain that relationship [with Riyadh]. It’s very important to have Saudi Arabia as an ally, if we’re going to stay in that part of the world. Now, are we going to stay in that part of the world? One reason to is Israel. Oil is becoming less and less of a reason, because we’re producing more oil now than we’ve ever produced. So, you know, all of a sudden it gets to a point where you don’t have to stay there.' " • The Jerusalem Post sees the President's self-debate about whether the US needs to remain in the Middle East as bad for Israel : "The first is his argument that Israel is the reason the US is in the Middle East. The last thing Israel wants the average American to think is that US troops in the Middle East are risking their lives -- and at times losing them -- to protect Israel. Israel has been careful never to ask for US troops to be deployed in the region. It has lobbied Washington long and hard for weapons and funds to buy arms, saying 'Give us the wherewithal to defend ourselves.' But it has never asked America to do the actual defending. Trump’s answer could be construed as meaning that the US is in the Mideast -- its troops are engaged throughout the region -- because of Israel." • It may well be true that the US remains in the Middle East for strategic reasons in part unrelated to Israel -- as a function of US security, of America's strategic position in the world requiring it to be involved in the region, and of preventing the entire region form falling into the hands of Islamic radicals. The JPost sees President Trump's argument about remaining in the Mideast because of Israel as having "a certain appeal to some of Trump’s Evangelical backers, who see this as a good enough reason since it fits their belief in God’s promise to Abraham in Genesis : 'I will bless them that bless thee, and curse him that curses thee.' But for US Jews, the argument is uncomfortable. If America is in the Mideast because of Israel, then if something goes wrong -- if US troops are killed -- Israel is to blame, and that is definitely not something for which Israel wants to bear responsibility." • • • DEAR READERS, I find this to be a self-defeating argument from the Jerusalem Post. If there is any overriding reason for the US to stay in the Middle East, it is for Israel. Most Americans -- while weary of the loss of life and expense of staying the course in the region -- see it as vital to the survival of Israel. If Israel were not in the Middle East, President Trump's argument for a US easing back in the region -- American petroleum independence -- would carry great weight with the American public. THAT is precisely why he added that oil independence means that it is Israel that is a major reason for remaining. As I wrote about Afghanistan, there are many reasons to leave the region to its own self-destructive inclinations. BUT, the existence of Israel overrides the American sense of weariness with the entire millenia-old Sunni-Shiite battle for hegemony over Islam. The day that America ceases to see Israel as of overriding importance is the day the US backs off in the Middle East. The JPost should recognize this and support it, not try to say something that smacks of an insincere "Oh, of course I know I'm not your only love" while the wedding vows are said. • Now, the Jerusalem Post does raise one key point related to this : "Jerusalem wants to see the US engaged, influential and active in the region. It doesn’t want to see it disengaged and concerned only about its own domestic problems. This sentiment is in no way unique to Israel. Saudi Arabia, the rest of the Persian Gulf countries, Egypt and Jordan are all fearful of a situation where the US would withdraw within itself. If that were to happen, other actors would fill the vacuum, as was the case in Syria, where in 2015 Russia moved in, as the US waffled during the Syrian civil war. And two things are certain if other actors fill the vacuum left by the US : First, those actors will be much less benign; second, they will be much less concerned about Israel’s interests." • That is a far better position for the Jerusalem Post to take than trying to suggest, especially to Americans, that Israel is not the key to it all.