Friday, January 29, 2016
Saturday Politics : Italian PM Matteo Renzi, an EU Leader-in-Waiting
Saturday politics - Europe : 40% of Germans want Chancellor Angela Merkel to resign, and 45% say she shouldn't, according to a Friday poll. It's the strongest sign yet of deep frustration with her open door policy for Middle East and African refugees and migrants. She's being isolated, both in the European Union and at home -- as conservatives in her governing coalition demand a tougher plan for asylum seekers, and EU allies refuse quotas. ~~~~~ Tuesday, Merkel’s conservative Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union, sent her a letter threatening Constitutional Court action if her federal government doesn't resolve the refugee crisis. The Bavarian Interior and Justice Ministers issued a joint statement demanding action. Merkel’s open door policy has outraged Bavaria. Recently, a Bavarian district head sent a busload of 30 refugees to Merkel’s Berlin office, saying his district can't handle any more refugees. Thursday, Merkel's coalition agreed to tighter asylum rules in a compromise plan to slow migrant flow. It isn't clear if the new plan fully satisfies Bavaria. ~~~~~ Merkel also faces criticism for her migrant policy from other EU leaders, including Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi whom she met with Friday. German-Italian relations are tense over migration, austerity and energy supplies. Renzi recently declared that Italy is not subordinate to Germany. He wants growth to replace austerity. He's angry that Germany’s Nord Stream pipeline project with Russia is securing its own energy supplies while Merkel pressures the rest of the EU to back Russian economic sanctions in the Ukraine crisis. And for the past year, Italy has been left alone to handle thousands of migrants landing on its southern shores in flimsy boats -- which hasn't kept Germany from criticizing Italy’s failure to fingerprint new arrivals, who can therefore seek asylum elsewhere in the EU, often Germany. Now, Merkel is talking about a mini-Schengen no-passport zone -- Germany, Austria, Belgium, Luxembourg, France and the Netherlands -- to teach Italy and Greece a lesson. Renzi has decided that Italy, the easygoing major EU state, will fight back. He says Italy has made progress with reforms and now German-led austerity must be replaced, or eased, to create jobs badly needed in Italy and all over the EU, except in Germany. Italian ministers privately say some powerful EU states interpret EU rules to benefit themselves, and that Italy should also have this flexibility -- especially for its 2016 budget. ~~~~~ With Italian finesse, on Friday, Renzi made Merkel an offer she couldn’t refuse -- give Italy more financial flexibility and Italy will stop slamming Germany and bashing the EU. So simple. With the refugee crisis deepening, the UK preparing to vote on leaving the EU, and multiple economic pressures, Merkel can’t afford an open fight with Italy. Just as Renzi can't afford more austerity. Even with reform, Italy has the highest EU debt after Greece, at 133% of GDP. Under EU fiscal rules, Italy should adopt more austerity. But Renzi, regarded as Italy’s best, maybe last, hope for meaningful reform, wants "flexibility.” That is : cut Rome some slack with its numbers. Renzi’s Merkel trump card is the refugee crisis. She's politically exposed by her deal with Turkey to keep Syrian refugees from heading to Europe. The deal's glue is €3 billion for Turkey, which Renzi is blocking. The agreement was signed in November, but Turkey won’t act until it's paid. Without the Turkey deal, Merkel’s refugee strategy will collapse. Because Greece has not succeeded to secure its sea borders with Turkey, Turkey must hold the refugees in its territory. Renzi holds the money and also notes Italy's mediation between eurosceptic Britain and europhile Germany and France. Italy would benefit from reduced German/French domination. If its mediation helps avert a catastrophic exit by the UK -- the EU’s #2 economy and one of its two major military powers -- then Italy may say it helped save the EU. A deal Merkel can't refuse. And perhaps an Italian EU leader-in-waiting.
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I am not a proponent of anything like an EU. Collectivism of societies, of governments is nothing more than socialism at all it's worse. To be all things to all people is an impossibility. It's us as the title of a book said .."Return to Surfdom."
ReplyDeleteBut in 2016 the start of the unpeaceful, the economic failure, the collapse of the EU by outside forces is possibly the most unhealthy happening the rest of the truly free searching world could encounter.
So if Renzi is a leader in waiting, one with ideas for the EU that are more widely acceptable than the road that Ms. Merkel is traveling with only her native Germany in mind -bring him on.
The economic and immigration problems of the Merkel regime are about to implode the EU and along with it out others outside the EU in peril. Governments and economies can not be turned on and off by the flick of a switch. Europe can not be the EU tidY and some 30 individual countries again tomorrow morning.
It's like the United Stares recovery from Obamacare/ACA it can't and won't be done over night, and reversal back to a Europe without the governing of the EU from Brussels and the Euro currency is also impossible.
There is a void of leadership all over this world right now.
ReplyDeleteThe United States is being misled and taken further and further down the road to Socialism by Obama The EU just keeps making mistake after mistake with Immigration and recognition of governments that only want their downfall.
Greece and another 5-6 EU countries are financial disasters due to leadership. Great Britian is about to leave the EU all together and undoubtedly that will fister other such moves.
And it's all because of leadership that are unequal to the task at hand - protecting and preserving the country they took an oath to do.
It matters not why thus is/has occurred. What matters is what the people are going to dye to reverse the trend. And the quickest, most effective method is to vote, and vote for the right person not the right party affiliation.
Purely from the sidelines I think the EU is suffering most from 3 very intertwined and closely related problems: the stagnating euro zone economy, the Ukraine/Russia crisis, which could be as the gravest threat to continental security since the Cold War ended, and the risk that Britain will quit the European Union
ReplyDeleteEuro zone weakness is one reason the EU is reluctant to take action against Russia. GDP growth, already anemic, ground to a halt in the second quarter. The inflation rate has fallen again, to just 0.3 percent, and the unemployment rate is stuck at 11.5 percent.
The euro zone cannot easily withstand another shock which helps explain why the EU is taking such a softly line to stepping up sanctions against Russia. Italy and France also need to accelerate their structural reforms. There are some positive signs. Matteo Renzi last week took measures to reform Italy’s dysfunctional civil justice system, which is a big drag on the economy. Meanwhile, Francois Hollande reshuffled France’s government, kicking out hard-liner socialists who had been arguing against reform. But it is still unclear whether either man fully appreciates the urgency of the situation.
And if or when Britain does quit the EU, what is known as a “Brexit,” Europe’s power and ability to stand up to Moscow would be diminished. The UK is, along with France, the EU’s strongest military power. It is also active in diplomacy. Following a Brexit, the EU would be even more dominated by Germany’s non-interventionist predilections. Eurosceptics say this argument is nonsense because Europe’s security has always rested on the American-led NATO alliance, which holds a summit this week in Wales, not on the EU. What’s more, EU foreign and security policy has been an embarrassment – as the weak responses to the Ukraine, Iraqi and Syrian crises show.
To deal with this triple challenge, Europe’s leaders are going to have to raise their game substantially. The EU needs to reform itself to become less bureaucratic and become more competitive, principally by completing the single market in services and capital. This wouldn’t just be good for growth in the long run; it would also give Britain more good reasons to stay in the EU.
The road to prosperity and the vision of what the EU was to be is as the Beetles sang … “A Long and Winding Road.” And maybe there is no leader on board to handle the job of its leadership. But if Renzi is available, then maybe now it is time to change to someone that might have a clearer vison of what needs done rather than Merkel. She has lost sight of what the EU should be and swapped it with what she wants it to be.
ReplyDeleteMerkel’s message has been that being part of the European club (EU) is also about adhering to what she and other socialists see as humanity norms and acting together to right these wrongs.
ReplyDeleteEurope is under severe geopolitical strain: in the east with the war in Ukraine and in the south with the fallout of Syrian conflict and strife in Africa.
Decisively, this also boils down to information. What people are told and how events are communicated will define perceptions and, more often than not, policymaking. The distribution of information is very one sided. Confronting the risk of European fragmentation over the refugee crisis is as much a battle for minds as it is a negotiation between governments.
And as in the United States with people now understanding the lies of the Obama administration, Europeans must start to act on the reject the lies of their leadership.., the ballot box is their strongest weapon.
On the 28th of this month France welcomed the President of Iran into their country to kick off talks on trade. Thus is the first visit to France by any leader of Iran in 16 years..
ReplyDeleteTo me thus raises one and only one question ... "Is this demonstrated leadership? Or is this simply the leader of France looking to get his hands on some of the $200 Billion dollars of embargo monies that Iran will be receiving from Obama!s ill-advised nuclear agreement and stoppage of embargoes aganist the leader in state sponsored terrorism.
If France or any other country in the EU will not demonstrated better self protection judgement, they can't expect when they cry "wolf" for anyone to listen.