Monday, January 18, 2016
A Weak Rouhani, Hostages, and Questions about Iran's Nuclear Goals
Some key facts will mark the future US - Iran relationship. ~~~~~ (1). ROUHANI'S ROLE. In public speeches and private meetings, Iran Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei has clearly said the US will remain Iran's enemy. This is key because under Iran's constitution, Khamenei, not President Rouhani, has the last word, and he will back hardliners in their domestic political fight with Rouhani's "moderates." Khamenei constitutionally controls : the Guardian Council that vets laws and election candidates; the judiciary; security forces; public broadcasters; and, foundations that control much of the economy. So, before February parliamentary elections, hardliners will have Khamenei support against pro-Rouhani candidates, who will face mass disqualifications. An unnamed pro-reform journalist told western media : "They will compensate for Rouhani's victory by more arrests of activists and more journalists will be summoned by the courts." In this regard, moderate leaders Moussavi and Karoubi are still under house arrest after mass protests against the allegedly rigged presidential election of Ahmadinejad in 2009. In addition, some analysts say Rouhani, who represented Khamenei at the Supreme National Security Council for 20 years, lacks the will to resist hardliner pressure against social reforms many young Iranians demand. Rouhani has criticized crackdowns but has done little to stop them. So, we can't expect Rouhani to lead a real Iranian move toward moderation. (2). IRAN STILL USES POLITICAL HOSTAGES. It continues to hold two Americans. And Sunday as the Swiss plane carrying the American hostage/prisoners was ready to leave Teheran, Iran tried to prevent the Iranian wife of one American from going with him, despite prior assurances. Iran also has a history of hostage torture. So, Western business people might want to avoid traveling to Iran while random hostage-taking is part of Khamenei's hardline diplomacy. (3). THE NUCLEAR DEAL IS THE FACADE OF IRAN'S NUCLEAR GOALS. Rouhani said Monday Iran will not breach its nuclear deal with world powers as long as the West also honors its commitments : " Iran is morally and religiously committed not to seek weapons of mass destruction." But, the US, the EU and the UN have agreed to a deal under which International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors have access to suspect sites only after 24 days -- time enough for Iran to hide forbidden activities. If Iran refuses access, it faces the possibility of UN sanctions being reimposed. But that's unlikely because it would require EU agreement and it is Europe that's most anxious to re-enter the Iran commercial market. In addition, the IAEA may not want to sanction Iran -- in December, it closed its long-running inquiry into whether Iran once had a secret nuclear weapons program, opting to support Teheran's deal with world powers rather than dwell on its past bad acts. Rouhani will visit Italy and France next week on his first post-sanctions trip to Europe, a diplomatic source said Monday. Rouhani will visit Rome and Paris. On his first day in Italy he will meet Pope Francis. So, it would be foolish to count on Europe to be tough on Iran. ~~~~~ Dear readers, As for White House clemency to seven Iranians convicted or facing trial in the US, or its removal of Interpol detention requests and charges against 14 Iranians overseas, Reuters has identified the clemency cases and the US Justice Department on Sunday confirmed them. Prosecutors also moved to dismiss some overseas cases early Saturday, before the release of the Americans jailed in Iran was announced. What were they convicted of or charged with? -- shipping electronics to Iran / helping Iran launch its first satellite in exchange for a $10 million payment / trying to export US-built marine navigation devices to Iran / helping cyber attacks against a US defense contractor / helping to ship thousands of Chinese parts "with nuclear applications" to Iran / exporting to Iran US-built pressure transducers used in nuclear centrifuges. No Iran nuclear weapons program? You decide. I already have.
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There are rules, no there are honorable expectations that are expected from elected officials. In the matter of Obama, Iranian Nuclear Agreement, and Muslim dealings in particular there is nothing there except secrecy, lies, and treasonist activity
ReplyDeleteA sick feeling ran through my veins as I watched Secretary of State John Kerry announce the Iranian Nuclear Agreement had been implemented. He spoke like the programmed robot we used to see on old science fiction TV shows. As if the words had already been recorded, Kerry’s lips moved in sync while his monotone cadence tried to sell us on this dangerous and impossible-to-enforce agreement. As the ghost of Neville Chamberlain hovered, Kerry tried assuring the world that ending sanctions and providing billions of dollars in relief, releasing the globe’s most terrifying characters from Gitmo and paving the way for the largest state sponsor of Islamic terror to eventually possess nuclear weapons was – a good deal?
ReplyDeletePresident Obama has achieved his greatest fantasy. We should now understand what he meant by his electioneering promise to “fundamentally change America.” That change is driven by his dream of an Islamic empire reborn; a superpower sitting at the same table with the US, China and Russia. He will leave office confident that America, once the powerful beacon of freedom, will be weaker, more divisive and vulnerable. His presidency will end with the world in chaos where despotic maniacal dictators can purchase nuclear weapons on the open market confident America will do nothing about it. Mr. Obama has given them every reason to believe there are no “red lines.” For a man who claims he gives a damn about climate change, one nuclear blast will forever alter it.
Obama and his supporters always argued the only choice was between diplomacy and war. He was wrong. Initially, sanctions got Iran to the negotiating table and would have eventually choked their economy into capitulation. Even if the U.S. were the only country imposing economic sanctions, we would have had the influence and power to achieve a better outcome. Adversaries would have respected our determination. We lack leadership today; that is why the sanctions regime failed.
ReplyDeleteSo here we are, as an apocalyptic regime dreaming of the return of the 12th Imam which can only be achieved by the destruction of all non-believers is applauded as a signatory to a disastrous agreement. As Kerry receives his Nobel Peace Prize and Obama sails off into the sunset of his failed Administration, history will one day record the Iranian agreement as a cataclysmic disaster and one that “fundamentally changed America” – and the world.
Now maybe in the very near future the only choice that will be either more concessions to evil or a war with evil.
Most of America’s Founding Fathers believed the main purpose of government was to protect its subjects from the initiation of violence from any source; government itself prominently included. Rousseau was perhaps the first to popularize the fiction now taught in civics classes about how government was created. That made the U.S. government almost unique in history. And it was that concept – not natural resources, the ethnic composition of American immigrants, or luck – that turned America into the paragon it became.
ReplyDeleteWhat (arguably) makes government necessary is the need for protection from other, even more dangerous, governments. And that friend brings us to Obama and his very unhealthy secret working relationship with Iran unduly elected central government of President Rouhani, its real ruler the Iran Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. But politics does not deal with people as individuals. It scoops them up into parties and nations.
Romanticizing government, making it seem like Camelot, populated by brave knights and benevolent kings, painting it as noble and ennobling, helps people to accept its jurisdiction. But, like most things, government is shaped by its origins.
Obama, Rouhani, and Khamenei are not knights; they are not even compassionate except to their own very misguided self-interests. But because of them and the Iranian Nuclear Accord we will fight yet another massive war in the name of good vs evil government.
The Obama administration is adamant that its sanctions against the IRGC remain in place and that the nuclear deal will not prevent strengthening non-nuclear sanctions against the Guard's role in terrorism and propping the Syrian regime if necessary. What better way than to test this proposition than for Congress to punish those investors who partner with the IRGC?
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