Monday, September 7, 2015
Happy Labor Day -- and a Thank You to Donald Trump
It's Labor Day in America, and I haven't had better news for the last holiday of summer since 2008. ~~~~~ Donald Trump, according to a surprising new poll from SurveyUSA, beats Hillary Clinton in a general election, 45% to 40%, with 16% of voters undecided. He wins a big share of the Democrats’ non-white base -- 25% of African Americans, 31% of Hispanics and 41% of the relatively small Asian vote. It is better than Republican presidential candidates do with these important constituencies and that is probably disconcerting news for the GOP establishment who are wary of Trump. But in contrast to the GOP establishment that likes to wring its hands over demographic trends that shrink the GOP voter share, Trump stands by a border wall, some form of repatriation program for millions of undocumented migrant workers, and new curbs on middle-class outsourcing to the roughly 700,000 guest-workers used by Fortune 500 companies. Trump’s labor-supply reform would probably do what he is promising -- create jobs for Americans, raise wages, and lower profits, all of which might somehow boost his support among lower-wage, often-jobless Americans. In 2012, the GOP’s establishment candidate, former Governor Mitt Romney, won only 27% of Hispanics and a mere 6% of blacks, who are hit hardest by the bipartisan support for cheap, government-dependent migrants. Now, Trump must win over the large undecided vote, which the poll says is at 16%. The SurveyUSA poll of 1,000 Americans, including 900 registered voters, on September 2 and 3, also shows that Trump reverses the long-standing sex-gap to +10% in his favor. That’s the combination of a 15-point advantage among men, and only a 5-point disadvantage among women. In contrast, Romney had a 7-point advantage among men, and a 11-point disadvantage among women, resulting in a - 4-point sex-gap. Clinton wins people younger than age 35 by 19%, but Trump wins the three older demographic groups by roughly 15%. Trump wins four-year college grads by 8%, and people with some college by 13%, leaving Clinton to take the high-school-only voters, 44% to 35%. Trump wins swing-voting moderates, 42% to 38%. Clinton wins the West by a scant 2%, and the Northeast by only 4%, but Trump wins the very important swing-voting Midwest by a huge margin -- 49% to 31%. Trump beats the Democrats’ B-team -- Senator Bernie Sanders by 44% to 40%, Vice President Joe Biden by 44% to 42%, and former Vice President Al Gore by 44% to 41%. And Trump hasn’t spent a penny on campaign advertising so far. ~~~~~ Dear readers, a poll like this will "make my day." Think about the African American and Hispanic poll percentages for Trump. What many of us have long believed is true -- the Republican Party is the natural ally of all Americans who want ethical values, a good education, a fair chance at jobs and homes, and a small government that leaves enough Dollars in their pockets to achieve those goals for themselves and their children. All it takes to bring them home to America is a GOP that sincerely reaches out to them. Thank you, Donald Trump. ~~~ Wishing everyone a Happy Labor Day.
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People should not to let anger at both parties and government, cloud good judgement. The Donald is a populist playing to that anger. The Donald will claim that he has evolved on some these positions, but actually very few. Tariffs are not conservative principles, and neither are increased taxes on the wealthy...do remember that hedge fund's make the funds possible for co like Apple...which grows the economy and provides jobs. With every action there is an equal and opposite reaction....this should be a cautionary tale: be careful what you wish for....or vote for.
ReplyDeleteFriends we have been here in this exact position in 2008 & 2012, and elected Obama … and look at what it has got us.
I am not opposed to Trump. But when the campaign rhetoric turns to serious questions and policies I hope that Trump can hold his own against all the Washington double talk that the likes of Clinton & Sanders can and will throw around.
Early I know but maybe we should start to ask who the Trump administration will contain, or a Clinton or a Sanders administration? No more ‘pigs in a poke purchases.’
The comparisons between this election and nearly(maybe all) most other presidential elections are very few. this whole slate of potential candidates are as unique as possible.
ReplyDeleteBut for someone who was up until some 5 plus months ago never considered to be on the radar screen of of American politics to be in such a commanding position in both the Republican Party and one on one against ALL the Democratic party hopefuls is to say the least unique and mind-boggling.
Right now none of us have any concrete evidence as to what is going happen in the next 10 months prior to the 2 party;s conventions. Who is left standing and who falters and why still has a great deal of influence on the outcome of the Presidential General Election of 2016.
But it's a soothsayer of little experience that counts Donald Trump out at this point.
Donald Trump is without a doubt a phenomenal. In early April of this year he wasn't even a candidate. Now he is leading the GOP nomination battle with a 12% lead over his closest republican rival. And a lead over his democratic potential opponents by a varying margin of 2 to 5 %.
ReplyDeleteCongrats to Mr. Trump.
Is this startling circumstance due to Trump's political experience? Not really. Is it due to the announced democrats? Again not really.
It just might be due to the lack of control and leadership of the Republican National Committee and its lack of anything close to control or leadership.
Now certainly Donald Trump has single handed developed this lead be now has. A lead that is beginning to look insurmountable even at this early stage. But not have a national committee conducting a winning strategy for their favorite candidate has made the path to where Trump is right now a less "Long and Winding Road." But it's been only Donald Trump that has ceased the moment.
Hillary Clinton had the nomination sewed up and was being hailed the winner of the general election. And now she has stumbled all over herself and is playing second candidate to again a political unknown just as she did in 2008 to Obama.
Lightning can strike twice in the same place - hasn't it?