Europe and Russia Refocus the Need to Act in Syria

World attention has refocused on Syria, largely as a result of the wave of Syrian migrants and refugees flooding into Europe. The goal is to stop the flow by finding a way to bring peace to war-torn Syria. ~~~~~ US and coalition forces carried out 11 air strikes on the ISIS in Iraq on Sunday, as well as four strikes targeting ISIS in Syria, according to a statement released on Monday. Attacks in Iraq were scattered, hitting tactical units and destroying vehicles and weapons. An air strike near Tuz destroyed 49 ISIS fighting positions, as well as four tunnels and a weapons cddache, according to a coalition statement. The attacks in Syria were near Raqqa, Mar'a and Tamakh, hitting a staging area and tactical unit, and also destroying five excavators used by ISIS. The air strikes killed at least 16 militants, including five foreign jihadists. Islamist insurgents bombarded central Damascus, killing one civilian and wounding others, according to al-Assad state TV. Meanwhile, because of an ISIS surge, the al-Assad regime has lost "the last oilfield in Syria," according to the Syrian Observatory, which tracks the conflict in Syria through a network of sources on the ground. Social media comments said fighting had surged in the last two to three days and the rebels had taken the oilfield on Sunday, located northwest of the rebel-held ancient city of Palmyra, close to Syria's main natural gas fields and multi-million-dollar extraction facilities. The army, which has been fighting to retake the city and surrounding areas, secured the oil field's perimeter in June. ~~~~~ And, out of step with the world's renewed seeking a Syria peace, Russia has sent a military advance team to Syria and is taking other steps the US fears may signal that President Vladimir Putin is planning to vastly expand his military support for Syria's President Bashar al-Assad, as reported by Obama administration officials Friday. The Russian moves -- the recent transport of prefabricated housing units for hundreds of people to a Syrian airfield and the delivery of a portable air traffic control station there -- complicate Secretary of State John Kerry’s efforts to enlist Putin’s support for a diplomatic solution in Syria. The Russians have also filed military overflight requests with neighboring countries through September. Greece has received a request from the US to deny Russia the use of Greek airspace for aid flights to Syria, a spokesman for the Greek foreign ministry said on Monday, adding that the request was being examined. Russian newswire RIA Novosti earlier said Greece had refused the US request, citing a diplomatic source. American officials acknowledge that they are not certain of Russia’s intentions, but some say the temporary housing suggests that Russia could deploy as many as 1,000 advisors or other military personnel to the airfield near the Assad family’s ancestral home. The airfield serves Latakia, Syria’s principal port city. The Russian Foreign Ministry denounced on Monday as "falsifications and fabrications" media reports that it is changing its stance on the war in Syria or on the future of President al-Assad, whom it has shielded throughout the conflict. The Russian ministry statement said : "We don't appoint or dismiss foreign presidents, neither on our own or in cahoots with anyone else." Russian officials have not confirmed recent media reports of Moscow increasing its military assistance to al-Assad, saying only that it has long been supplying Damascus with arms and training to help it fight Islamist radicals, and will continue to do so. ~~~~~ While Russia appears to be upgrading its presence in Syria on behalf of al-Assad, the United States is reviewing its options for battling ISIS in Syria, the New York Times reported on Monday. The Pentagon is looking into moving more fighters into safer zones with greater popular support, providing better intelligence, increasing the number of trained rebels and improving their skills. The classified options are circulating among top Defense Department officials, the NYT reported, citing sources who spoke on condition of anonymity. ~~~~~ But, despite the growing search for a Syrian peace, recent analysis has reinforced the view among Syria experts that there is no solution in sight, with one of the biggest obstacles an unbridgeable international divide over President al-Assad's future, leaving Syria looking forward to ever greater fragmentation into territorial enclaves, with only one of them the fiefdom of al-Assad - a diminishing Damascus-based state where he appears confident of survival because of backing from his Russian and Iranian allies. While some Western officials say even al-Assad's allies now accept that he cannot win back and stabilize all of Syria, Russia's support for him is even stronger. Russia's foreign minister recently repeated the Russian view that al-Assad is a legitimate leader, rejecting the US position to the contrary as "counterproductive," and comparing the West's approach to Syria to its failures in Iraq and Libya. Russia also confirmed that it continues to supply al-Assad with weapons. A Syrian military official told Reuters there has recently been a "big shift" in Russian military support, including new weapons and training : “Our ties are always developing but in these days a qualitative shift has happened. We call it a qualitative shift in Arabic, which means big." The New York Times says American intelligence analysts told it that Russia had sent a military advance team to Syria. Secretary Kerry expressed his concern about the reports of an increased Russian involvement in a telephone call with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Saturday. The logjam over al-Assad remains the biggest obstacle to breaking a diplomatic impasse around peace efforts and it is a big complication in the fight against the ISIS group, which has flourished in the chaos caused by the Syrian conflict that has killed a quarter of a million people and driven another 11 million from their homes. ~~~~~ In addition the recent flurry of diplomatic activity followed the conclusion of Iran's nuclear deal with world powers and included high-level meetings between states with a stake in the conflict, with Russia taking the lead. "There is no real peace solution because of the unlimited support from Russia and Iran," said Bashar al-Zoubi, head of one of the biggest rebel groups fighting al-Assad in southern Syria, speaking to Reuters via Whatsapp from Syria. Al-Assad has rejected the idea of imminent political progress, saying the war would only be near its end when states "conspiring against Syria" cease doing so - a reference to Saudi Arabia and Turkey.Iranian officials travel to Damascus frequently, underlining Teheran's support for an ally who has protected its interests in the Levant in alliance with Hezbollah, the Lebanese Iran-backed jihadist group fighting alongside al-Assad's forces in Syria. Moscow and Teheran's backing for al-Assad is supported by the fact that they see no alternative leader who can guarantee their interests. Al-Assad may control only 20% of Syria, but they see him as the cornerstone of what remains of the state. including the military and security forces which many Syria experts believe would fragment were he gone. Russia is pushing for the Syrian government to be included in international efforts to fight ISIS. Saudi Arabia is one of the states rejecting the idea. A senior Russian diplomatic source told Reuters :"Proposals by our partners for the change of regime in Damascus are illegitimate. To he replaced by what? I don't think they have any idea. There used to be no terrorists in Iraq, the same in Libya. And now the Libyan state has fallen apart and the terrorists are roaming there." The new US special envoy for Syria Michael Ratney, gave the opposite view after his August 28 visit to Moscow. A US statement said : "We are cognizant that Assad’s continued tenure fuels extremism and inflames tensions in the region. That is why a political transition is not only necessary for the good of the people of Syria, but an important part of the fight to defeat the extremists," While insisting al-Assad must go, US officials are not specific about when or how. That leaves open the possibility of a transition that begins while he is still in office - an almost impossible idea for the rebels fighting him. In any case, Russia has rejected the idea of any prenegotiated exit for al-Assad. In comments closest in weeks to outlining what Moscow might see as an acceptable way forward on dealing with al-Assad, Russia said on Friday the Syrian president was ready to hold early parliamentary elections and share power with moderate opposition. ~~~~~ Dear readers, we continue to go round and round diplomatically while millions of Syrians flee to Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey and Europe. Nothing related to Syria is even close to being resolved -- and won't be until President Obama decides to act.