Iran, Israel -- It's Saturday Emails

It's time for the first Saturday report on your emails. I've received several, and the key topic was Iran, Israel and the Middle East. To summarize, you wrote to ask if the US will actually sign a nuclear deal with Iran and whether that will have a serious impact on US - Israel relations. Let's review the situation. ~~~~~ There is wide concern about the American-led P5+1 negotiations with Iran. Not all is negative, because some analysts agree with President Obama that any control is better than no control at all over Iran's nuclear program. Other analysts, probably a majority, think that easing economic sanctions and allowing Iran to continue operating centrifuges, given its past refusal to grant access to activities at all its sites, will simply give Iran a long window in which to complete its nuclear bomb delivery technology and fuel. It's interesting that no analysts support Iran's assertion that it is not making a nuclear bomb. So, we are facing an Iran determined to have nuclear weapons. That is the concensus. Can Iran's nuclear bomb goal be controlled or prevented? ~~~~~ A government-sponsored investment trade fair just wrapped in the Egyptian seaside resort of Charm-el-Cheikh. Secretary of State John Kerry, who was there on his way to a fresh round to talks with Iran in Lausanne, Switzerland, told reporters it is unclear whether an interim agreement over Iran's nuclear power program is possible : "I can't tell you whether or not we can get a deal, whether we are close....The purpose of these negotiations is not just to get a deal, it is to get the right deal," he said. The P5+1 team -- the US, Britain, Germany, France, China and Russia -- hope to get agreement on a framework by the end of the month. The two sides would then seek to negotiate an accord by which Iran would halt most sensitive nuclear activities for at least 10 years. In exchange, sanctions on Iran would gradually end. Kerry repeated that a letter to Iran last week from Republican senators may have undermined the talks, saying he would assure Iranian negotiators and European allies during the upcoming talks that Congress does not have the authority to change the deal. Kerry was formal that Congress cannot stop the Iran deal: "As far as we're concerned, Congress has no ability to change an executive agreement." This opinion may very well be tested at the US Supreme Court, if a deal is actually signed, a result that Kerry constantly hedges, as he did in Charm-el-Cheikh, adding that "important gaps" still remain between the sides. ~~~~~ And, President Obama and Secretary Kerry have another worry over their goal of an Iran nuclear deal. Earlier this month, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that Obama was negotiating a "bad deal" with Iran. Before the GOP Senators wrote their "Open Letter," House Republicans invited Netanyahu to speak about Iran, without consulting the White House or Democrats. But, Kerry would not be drawn about Tuesday's Israeli elections, saying the United States hoped that whatever the outcome, it would help "push forward the peace process with Palestinians." The last opinion polls permitted before the election show Israel's center-left opposition poised to upset Prime Minister Netanyahu's Likud party. But, the issues driving Israeli opinion are more closely tied to domestic econonics than Iran. Kerry offered again the American preference for a two-state solution : "President Obama remains committed to a two-state solution...he remains hopeful that whatever choice that people of Israel make, that there will be an ability to be able to move forward on those efforts." But Kerry refused to offer a date for resuming the peace talks, which broke down in April 2014 after nine months of Kerry-led negotiations. Kerry met with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas on Saturday on the sidelines of the investment conference in Charm el- Cheikh. The meeting included Jordan's King Abdullah and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi. ~~~~~ However, while Secretary Kerry tries to calm the international waters, President Obama has a much more vocal set of opponents at home. GOP conservatives maintain that Obama is so obsessed by his legacy that he will negotiate any agreement that restrains Iran from becoming a nuclear-armed state. So, according to these critics, Obama is not pushing back against Iranian aggression all over the Middle East. They say Iran is destabilizing Iraq, Yemen, Syria, Lebanon and Bahrain. They insist that the nuclear negotiations have affected US policy decisions in the region. Kerry said at a congressional briefing recently that the White House is "deeply concerned" about Iran's actions : "But if you're concerned about it now, think of what happens...if they had a nuclear weapon." Republicans point to the destabilizing regional activities of Iran -- IRAQ, where Iran-backed shiite militias are fighting alongside Kurds and the Iraqi shiite army in Tikrit; Iranian General Qassem Soleimani, commander of the powerful Revolutionary Guard Quds Force, is directing the battle; US Army General Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, says the US worries that the militia, who are shiite, eventually might turn against sunni and Kurdish Iraqis, further destabilizing the country. SYRIA, where Iran-backed Bashar al-Assad, who has waged an unrelenting campaign against his own people for four years and is fighting against 'moderates' trying to topple him; Teheran has sent al-Assad advisors and billions of dollars in aid, as well as shiite militias from Hezbollah, the Lebanese shiite arm of Iran, and from Iraq. YEMEN, where shiite Houthi militia backed by Iran, seized the capital, Sanaa, from a US-backed leader who supported American drone strikes against al-Qaida figures; Nick Rasmussen, director of the National Counter Terrorism Center, told the Senate Intelligence Committee that Yemen's American-funded army failed to oppose advancing Houthi rebels, and that the government's collapse surprised the US. (Does this remind you of the Iraqi army's collapse?). BAHRAIN, where the US Navy's 5th Fleet is based, is led by a sunni monarchy struggling with shiite protests demanding greater rights and equal treatment; leaders in Bahrain say Iran is helping shiite militia; Iranian leaders accuse leaders in Bahrain of supporting anti-Iranian forces there. Senator John McCain, chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, recently said : "Iran is now in Baghdad and Beirut and Damascus and meanwhile this President and Secretary of State pursue the mirage of a nuclear agreement." Senator Lindsey Graham says if he were President, he would halt all nuclear talks until Iran stops "destabilizing the region and invading its neighbors." Kerry always looks for ways to defend the Obama administration position. Late last year, he told the Senate that the US and Israel tracked and interdicted a shipment of missiles going from Iran to Palestinian militants. Kerry said that the US also helped the Bahrain Coast Guard interdict a ship carrying weapons of Iranian origin bound for its proxy groups. And, Kerry added, late last year, Obama designated the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council as eligible for foreign military sales, meaning they can purchase weapons as an entity in order to lay the groundwork for them to deal with challenges that they feel from Iran. ~~~~~ So, dear readers, to return to the questions -- Will Obama sign a nuclear deal with Iran? Yes. The only way this might be avoided is for Secretary Kerry to convince the rest of the P5+1 that it is a "bad deal," as he and Obama label a negative result. This would be very delicate diplomacy, more like Metternich or Kissinger than Kerry. However, even if a deal is signed, expect some Republicans to use every legal means possible to stop it. Will US - Israel relations be impacted if an Iran deal is signed? No. But...a big but...Israel will continue to have the best intelligence on the status of Iran's nuclear bomb project and if it seems that Iran is close to having a nuclear warhead, you can be sure that Israel will act. Being threatened with nuclear annihilation has a way of concentrating a nation's resolve to survive. ~~~~~ (Hoping to hear from you at casey.popshots@yahoo.com).