Congress, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Israel Must Stay the Course until 2016

Today, four suicide bombers hit a pair of mosques controlled by shiite rebels in the Yemeni capital, Sanaa, ripping bombs through crowds of worshippers, killing at least 137 people and wounding 350 in the deadliest violence to hit the fragile war-torn nation in decades. The attack came during Friday prayers, the most crowded time of the week. Both the Badr and al-Hashoosh mosques are controlled by the shiite Houthis, but also are used by sunni worshippers. Another attempt to attack a mosque was prevented in the northern city of Saada - a Houthi stronghold. Scenes from the two mosques showed devastation, with children visible among the dead. A prominent shiite cleric, al-Murtada al-Mansouri, and two senior Houthi leaders were among the dead, the TV channel reported. The first bomber was caught by militia guards at the mosque entrance and he detonated his device at the outside gates. In the ensuing panic, a second bomber entered the mosque and blew himself up in the crowds, according to the official news agency SABA. Many were injured by shattered glass falling from the mosque's large hanging chandeliers. ~~~~~ The rebels, known as Houthis, who have taken over much of Yemen, now control the capital. They represent 30% of the population and have taken advantage of the vacuum left when the US withdrew its diplomatic and military support forces, leaving the US-allied government almost helpless. This has led to direct fighting between sunni al-Qaida militia and shiite Houthis. ~~~~~ ISIS claimed responsibility online for today's suicide bombings, but this was not independently confirmed. The influence of ISIS, the group that holds much of Iraq and Syria, has spread to Yemen, where a powerful wing of the rival militant group al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula, AQAP, already operates. The ISIS claim of responsibility was posted on the same website where an ISIS affiliate in Libya claimed responsibility for Wednesday's deadly attack on a museum in Tunisia. A spokesman for the Houthis, an Iran-backed anti-government shiite rebel group in Yemen, said his group was not behind Friday's attack. He pointed to earlier statements by Houthi leaders that prohibit striking mosques and markets. AQAP also said it did not carry out the attack. The ISIS branch in Yemen that claimed responsibility for the attack said that the four Sanaa suicide bombers blew themselves up among crowds of Houthis. The online message said the attack was just the first of an "upcoming flood, God willing. We swear to avenge the bloodshed of Moslems and the toppling of houses of God." ~~~~~ In late-breaking news, Yemeni security officials said AQAP has taken control of the southern city of al-Houta, the capital of Lahj province, after security forces surrendered. AQAP seized the security force barracks, the governor's office, and the intelligence headquarters, which houses prisons holding al-Qaida detainees. Forces loyal to deposed president Ali Abdullah Saleh surrendered to the militants without resistance. Those who resisted at the governor's office were executed, according to unnamed officials. Neither the current president Hadi, who supports the Houthis, nor the former president Saleh, who supports al-Qaida, was in the city. ~~~~~ The White House commented Friday, saying that US officials haven’t confirmed ISIS involvement in the Yemen attack. Josh Earnest, White House press secretary, said other groups have made similar claims of responsibility for propaganda value, and that American officials are investigating. “There’s no evidence that there is an operational link” between the attack and ISIS extremists, Earnest said, while acknowledging that extremist groups are trying to capitalize on instability there. US officials also are analyzing information on the massacre yesterday at the Bardo museum in Tunisia, where ISIS militants killed 23 people and wounded many others in a Kalachnikoff attack. ~~~~~ The most significant part of the ISIS statement about its Yemeni attack was its vow not to rest "until we have uprooted (the Houthis), repelled their aggression, and cut off the arm of the Iranian project in Yemen," it said, referring to claims that shiite powerhouse Iran is backing the rebels. While sunnis and shiites have been fighting each other in Iraq and Syria for a long time, today's action brings the leader of the sunnis, Saudi Arabia, and the leader of the shiites, Iran, together in the collapsing ruins of Yemen, the poor, loosely knit tribal country at the bottom of the Arabian peninsula - the Saudi Kingdom's homeland and the site of all Saudi oil. The Kingdom has built a large fence on its border with Yemen, but Iran may be positioning itself for a different run at Saudi oil fields and access to their output. ~~~~~ Bab Al Mandab is the key strait that passes through the Gulf of Aden, linking the Red Sea with the Indian Ocean. It serves as the world’s main oil transit waterway and main shipping lifeline through the Suez Canal. If the Houthis were to secure Bab Al Mandab and the sea in the Al Hudaydah governorate, another strategic waterway, they would control the traffic from the Suez Canal and the Persian Gulf, a sobering prospect for those worried about increasing Iranian influence in the region. And, Saudi Arabia isn't the only country watching the straits at Bab Al Mandab. In February, the head of Egypt's Suez Canal Authority said his country would send troops to Yemen if any group attempts to block the Bab Al Mandab strait. Lieutenant General Mohab Mamish said Egypt "will not accept" closure of the waterway which "directly affects the Suez Canal and national security." Mamish said events in Yemen are under constant review and that the military is ready to intervene if the strait is blocked. Egypt and Saudi Arabia together guarantee access to oil and other commodities for an arc that reaches from Scandinavia to Japan. Their control of the eastern access to the Mediterranean Sea means that if Iran wants to challenge them, it would face not only Egypt and Saudi Arabia but all of Europe, as well as America. Most ships that pass through Bab Al-Mandab are either going to or coming from Egypt's Suez Canal, one of its main sources of income and foreign currency flow. Today's attack by ISIS simply adds more fuel to an already-hot fire. ~~~~~ ~~~~~ Add to this simmering pot the fear and anger bubbling in the sunni Middle East over President Obama's determination to sign a nuclear deal with Iran. With a late March deadline for amthe Iran deal approaching, Saudi Arabia last week signed a nuclear co-operation agreement with South Korea that includes a plan to study the feasibility of building two nuclear reactors in the Kingdom. The Saudis have also signed nuclear co-operation agreements with China, France and Argentina, with the intention of constructing 16 nuclear power reactors over the next 20 years, so the nuclear race caused by Obama's actions has already begun. US Secretary of State, John Kerry, flew to Riyadh earlier this month to reassure Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Arab allies that America would not accept any deal unless it prevented Iran from building a nuclear weapon. Sources say he was told that they find Iran's support for armed shiite groups in regional conflicts as troubling as the prospect of an atomic bomb. Saudi Prince Turki said : "Iran is already a disruptive player in various scenes in the Arab world, whether it's Yemen, Syria, Iraq, Palestine, or Bahrain. So ending fear of developing weapons of mass destruction is not going to be the end of the troubles we're having with Iran." Saudi Arabia is concerned about Iran's backing of Iraqi shiite militias in the fight against ISIS. That role has become more public during the battle over the Iraqi city of Tikrit, where General Qasem Soleimani, commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards' Quds Force, is openly guiding shiite forces. Prince Turki said : "Now it seems that Iran is expanding its occupation of Iraq and that is unacceptable." The Kingdom has also long been frustrated with America's refusal to arm the Syrians against the al-Assad regime, Iran's closest Arab ally. "Inevitably I believe fighting ISIS is fighting Assad," Prince Turki declared. "It's because of Assad's treatment of his people that ISIS has taken advantage of the situation…so the enemy is both ISIS and Bashar al- Assad," Prince Turki, the former Saudi intelligence chief, added. ~~~~~ Dear readers, the Middle East pot is almost boiling -- without any neutral force to turn down the fire. With Obama siding with Iran and its shiite followers, there is no one to support and lead the sunnis, America's longtime allies. The surest conclusion is that no leader for Saudi Arabia and its allied sunnis will appear until the US elects a new President. Until then, a coalition of the US Congress, Israel, Egypt and Saudi Arabia will have to hold the situation together so that it will still be salvagable in January 2017.