The Unstable Balance of Power in the Middle East

When the finely honed balances of power and interests that hold international groups of allies together are strained beyond the breaking point, many, often unforeseen, consequences result. The best known example is the assassination of Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinand that called in the come-to-aid cards of various alliances all over Europe, resulting in World War I. Many historians argue that WWI was caused by a European arms race, elevated nationalism and territorial aggressiveness. In short, that the assassination of Franz Ferdinand was just an excuse for already-brewing war plans. However we see it, World War I became inevitable when Franz Ferdinand was shot in Sarajevo in June 1914. We may be watching the same phenomenon playing out today. We have not yet seen a trigger event, but there are multiple possible "shots" encircling us. ~~~~~ Let's put aside the Ukraine crisis because the players are easily identified and the result - war or peace - is almost entirely in the hands of Russian President Vladimir Putin because the West has abandoned its cards in announcing that war is not a possibility. So, the world is dancing with the Bear. Will the Bear offer champagne or maul? We can only wait warily for an outcome over which we have little control. ~~~~~ That brings us to the Middle East, the world's most volatile and violent region. Again, many historians have long predicted that the next world war will be fought in the Middle East. All the major powers are present in the region -- Russia and China allied and separately; the US and its European allies, now being called a coalition by Obama; the various political and religious alliances among regional powers and the militias and terrorist organizations they support. What is thus far missing, mercifully, is the "shot" that turns sparring encounters into a conflagration. But, the hotspots are increasing in number and the nerves of all cardholders are frayed. Here are some of the circumstances that could snap into a general war. ~~~~~ The US and Iran are inching toward a nuclear deal that's not good for anyone but Iran. By stonewalling a weak set of P5+1 negotiators, Iran is at the brink of being able to complete the development of its nuclear bomb under the auspices of a US-led Western accord that no one has been willing to call a preventive to an Iranian bomb. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says any pact short of totally dismantling Iranian programs with weapons-making potential is wrong. His planned speech to the US Congress March 3 is his most high-profile opportunity to date to make his case. America's - read that Obama's - approach is to degrade Iran's program so as to extend the time Iran would need to make a nuclear weapon from the present several months to a year. Obama officials say this would be sufficient warning time for the international community to do what it takes to stop Teheran. The Obama plan relies on inspection, a questionable approach, considering the sad history of other inspection programs. And an Iranian nuclear weapon would further tilt the already unstable Middle Eastern strategic equation toward irreversible ends -- an out-of-balance relationship between Saudi Arabia-led sunnis and Iran-led shiites; a nuclear arms race in the Middle East between sunnis and shiites; and a future for Israel even more fraught with the danger of annihilation than it is now. ~~~~~ After the Friday killing of a prominent sunni tribal leader, Sheikh Qassem al-Janabi, and the kidnapping of a sunni member of parliament the night before, Iraq's two main parliamentary lists including sunni lawmakers suspended their activities in protest. Sheikh Qassem al-Janabi and his son were shot dead along with at least six guards after gunmen stopped their convoy in south Baghdad. The sheikh's nephew, parliamentarian Zayed al-Janabi, was detained by the malfactors but later released. "The Iraqiya Alliance and the National Coalition announce they are suspending their participation in sessions of the Council of Representatives as from today," lawmaker Ahmed al-Massari said in a statement broadcast on local TV. The boycott would include all the 75 lawmakers in the two lists, including some shiite members. The statement blamed Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi and his ministers of defense and interior for "the breakdown of security and letting loose killers and outlaws to commit crimes of ethnic cleansing." Questions are being raised about the Iraqi government's ability to secure Baghdad, where safety measures were eased last week despite the increase in rival armed groups. The attack also threatens to worsen the sectarian tensions undermining Iraq's response to ISIS insurgents who seized about 1/3 of the country's north and west last year. Sunni politicians and tribal leaders have accused shiite militias organized under the government-run popular mobilization committee, Hashid Shabi, of killing civilians and destroying their homes in sunni districts recaptured from ISIS. Abadi, a moderate shiite islamist who seeks reconciliation between Iraq's shiite and sunni communities, and Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, Iraq's senior shiite cleric, have denounced such actions. No group has claimed responsibility for Friday's attack, but Deputy Prime Minister Saleh Mutlaq called for the eradication of the shiite militias, which operate freely all over Iraq and have spearheaded the battle against ISIS insurgents since the army nearly collapsed last summer. "We must get rid of the militias, and weapons must be in the hands of the state," he said, calling the militias outlaws who want to bring down democracy in Iraq. This situation highlights the plight of the sunni tribes in Anbar province who want to drive ISIS out of their region but who need weapons not being provided by the Obama administration, which fears angering Iran as the nuclear negotiations reach a climax. Thus, not only is Iran a grave problem in its own right, it is also seriously destabilizing Iraq. ~~~~~ After Jordan launched a sustained aerial attack on ISIS targets in Iraq and Syria because of the death of its captured pilot burned alive by them, Egypt has launched its own air attacks against ISIS targets in neighboring Libya after the terrorists posted a video of militants beheading a group of Egyptian Coptic Christians. This month, US forces killed a former Taliban leader in southern Afghanistan who had sworn allegiance to the ISIS weeks earlier. The Pentagon said the ISIS presence in Afghanistan was nascent but an indication of its global aspirations. Signs of ISIS have emerged throughout the Middle East -- in the Sinai, where militants swearing allegiance to ISIS battle the Egyptian government; in Tunisia and Algeria where groups affiliated with ISIS have surfaced; and in Mali where ISIS is being confronted by French forces. The beheadings and burnings that have shocked the West have finally angered some Middle East governments into opposing ISIS extremists who massacre their nationals. The territorial expansion of ISIS and its growing violence can have two consequences -- either shiite and sunni countries will unite to destroy ISIS; or because of the decentralized nature of the ISIS organization, Saudi-led sunnis and Iran-led shiites will pick and choose among local ISIS groups to serve as their proxies in the undeclared Saudi-Iran war. ~~~~~ Finally, there is another undeclared war in the Middle East - the animosity between President Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. A report Sunday by Israeli TV news indicated that the Obama administration had cut all communications with Israel about the Iran talks. The report was denied by White House spokesman Alistair Baskey. Sources said that Philip Gordon, the Middle East director for President Obama’s National Security Council, would see Israeli national security adviser Yossi Cohen and other senior officials on Monday. The discussion would include Iran policy, but US officials would probably not share the latest details of the Iran nuclear negotiations because the White House believes that Netanyahu's office leaked Obama negotiating positions to the media, something Netanyahu's office denies. While Israeli leaders and media decry the war between Obama and Netanyahu and warn against Netanyahu's speech before Congress, they are wrong to worry that either will destroy the US - Israel relationship. But what the bickering could do is lead Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas or ISIS to attack Israel, thinking it is vulnerable absent its American shield. That in itself could lead to disaster for the Middle East. ~~~~~ Dear readers, as we consider the Middle East, several things come into focus. A nuclear Iran is toxic for the region. ISIS has the capacity to either unite sunnis and shiites or drive them further into proxy wars. Israel and America must remain united. The US must be a strong unifying voice and force - does Barack Obama inderstand this, or care?