Merkel, Hollande and Obama Are So Far No Match for Putin in Ukraine

Ashton Carter, incoming US Secretary of Defense told the Senate yesterday : “I very much incline in that direction because I think we need to support the Ukrainians in defending themselves.” That direction? According to insiders, the Obama administration is considering sending arms to help the Kiev government fight the heavily armed, Russian-backed separatists. President Barack Obama has opposed sending weapons, but sources in his administration say that position could change. Carter told a US Senate committee yesterday that he supports the new White House position - a move that could anger Russia’s government, but one Carter indicated Wednesday he favors. The lethal weapons would include anti-aircraft missile systems, radar systems and other equipment and munitions, according to Representative Adam Schiff, ranking Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee. Ukraine is in chaos militarily and diplomatically. And President Obama's shift in position, supported by his new defense secretary, may have added to the chaos. ~~~~~ MILITARY CHAOS IN EASTERN UKRAINE. Fighting in eastern Ukraine between Russia-backed separatists and Ukrainian forces ballooned in January - even though technically there is a ceasefire in effect - raising the death toll to over 5,300 people killed since April. Three civilians were killed overnight in shelling in Donetsk and five servicemen were killed and 29 others wounded in the east in the last 24 hours. NATO defense ministers in Brussels were ready to boost the military alliance's forces in response to the fighting in Ukraine and Russia's increased military force, which US Secretary of State John Kerry says includes Russian tank movement. Top NATO commander US Air Force General Philip Breedlove says that in August Russia pushed the eastern frontline westward toward Kiev, the capital of Ukraine. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg says NATO is considering bolstering its rapid response force in eastern Europe from 13,000 to 30,000 in light of Russian actions in Ukraine. Russia has consistently denied backing the rebels with troops and weapons, while acknowledging that some Russians are fighting with the separatists. Western military experts dismiss the Russian denial. General Breedlove said today that Russia continues to supply the separatists with heavy, state-of-the-art weapons, air defenses and fighters and that NATO simply cannot supply Kiev with sufficient armaments fast enough to stop Russia if it decides to advance again, as it did in August. This may be the first hint that NATO is preparing to step into the fight on the side of Kiev, although in his State of the Union address, President Obama said that because Ukraine is not a member of NATO, its intervention in Ukraine is not possible. Obama did say, however, that NATO could go to the aid of Ukraine's eastern European neighbors who are NATO members. ~~~~~ And, at that point the military chaos begins. The United States now seems ready to supply lethal weapons to Ukraine. Kerry said in Kiev today that with its present armaments, Ukraine cannot defend itself against Russia. But, Germany and other European nations remain adament in their opposition to sending arms to Ukraine, with German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier and others reiterating that position again today. "By throwing more weapons on the bonfire, I don't believe, unfortunately, that we will solve the problems in Ukraine," Danish Foreign Minister Martin Lidegaard said in Copenhagen, urging more sanctions against Russia to force the rebels back into peace talks. And, indeed, European Union foreign ministers will be talking Monday about increasing EU sanctions against Russia for its actions in Ukraine. And, even General Breedlove, the American at the head of NATO who might be expected to favor Obama's position, sounded European today as he warned that any move to give Ukraine lethal defensive weapons must take into account a possible angry reaction from Russia -- even though he also says that Ukraine cannot defend itself against Russia. ~~~~~ DIPLOMATIC CHAOS. The military chaos, great as it is, pales in comparison to the diplomatic chaos swirling around the West's position about Ukraine. Today, Ukraine President Petro Poroshenko gave US Secretary of State Kerry a warm welcome to Kiev. In a joint news conference with Poroshenko, Kerry urged Russia to show its commitment to a peaceful, diplomatic solution to the conflict in eastern Ukraine by ceasing its military support for the separatists and bringing them to the negotiation table. Kerry said he was not asking Russia to do anything that it has not already promised to do. Kerry said : "Our choice is diplomacy," making no mention of providing Ukraine with lethal military aid. Instead, Kerry brought $16.4 million in new humanitarian aid to Ukraine. ~~~~~ That may sound good. But -- wait. In a new peace initiative, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President François Hollande arrived in Kiev today and will go on to Moscow tomorrow with a secret proposal to end the fighting in eastern Ukraine. The surprise move seems aimed at halting US considerations of giving Ukraine lethal weapons, something Europeans fear could spark even greater hostilities. A senior French government official said Hollande and Merkel decided Wednesday night on the trip without consulting American officials. But, Kerry tried to cast the new European initiative as part of unified Western efforts to support Ukraine. Kerry said the visit to Kiev by Merkel and Hollande "underscores that, together, the United States, France, Germany and the rest of our international partners stand united with Ukraine in calling on Russia to take the steps that I just outlined." The high-level diplomacy comes as increasing fighting in eastern Ukraine is threatening Europe's overall security. France and Germany are searching for a peace formula that both Ukraine and Russia can agree to. Hollande spoke to reporters earlier today in Paris, saying that he and Merkel would take to Moscow a proposal "based on the territorial integrity of Ukraine." Hollande did not mention the US in any context, saying that the two European nations have special historic, cultural and economic ties with Russia. Hollande said : "For the Russians who are worried...we have to settle this problem among Europeans. We are on the same continent." Hollande actually inferred during his remarks that the initiative was his idea but that he had unsisted on Merkel's participation as a sign that Germany and France are "side by side." And, whether she knows what's in the proposal or not, Federica Mogherini, the EU's foreign policy chief, backed the French-German peace effort, saying "there is no military solution to the crisis in Ukraine." ~~~~~ Russia - undoubtedly as Putin played the Cheshire Cat smiling at the disarray in the West - welcomed the EU initiative. In Moscow, Putin adviser Yuri Ushakov said Russia was "ready for a constructive conversation" aimed at stabilizing the situation, establishing a dialogue between the Ukrainian government and the rebels and rebuilding economic ties between eastern Ukraine and Kiev. Ushakov said the Kremlin expects that Merkel and Hollande have taken Putin's own nine-page peace proposal into account, but wouldn't offer any details. Merkel and Hollande have probably altered the Putin proposal to fit what Ukraine and the Europeans want, such as some autonomy for eastern Ukraine with special protections for language, culture and local taxes. But, Hollande's divisive "we are on the same continent" comment was praised by Ushakov, who said it reflects "a pragmatic approach, which the Kremlin welcomes." ~~~~~ Dear readers, amidst the horrors of an undeclared war against Russia that bears a strong resemblance to David and Goliath, Ukraine's economy has been devastated. Its currency, the hryvnia, slid 46% today against the US dollar, prompting the government to raise a key interest rate by a huge 5.5 percentage points to 19.5%. The move eased some pressure on the currency. Meanwhile, President Poroshenko says Kiev is spending up to $8 million a day on fighting the Russian-backed rebels. We all know that David beat Goliath -- but David wasn't burdened with friends like Obama, Merkel and Hollande. Perhaps the history lesson that fits Ukraine better is Julius Caesar's "Divide and Conquer" axiom. And since Obama, Merkel and Hollande are doing the dividing for him, all Putin has to do is conquer. And don't be surprised if the best that the West's Brain Trust - Obama, Merkel and Hollande - can do is to agree to a partitioned Ukraine, with even the Kiev side barred from NATO membership.Chamberlain, like Jacques Brel, is "alive and well and living in Paris."