Iran - Hezbollah - Saudi Arabia - Israel - President Obama : The Players in the Middle East

At his final press briefing as Secretary of Defense, Chuck Hagel covered many topics, including US cooperation with the Iraq government in its war against ISIS : "The fact is that we have put a particular emphasis on getting the kind of equipment and materiel, ammunition, the needs, the requirements for the Iraqi Security Forces and the Kurds....We have a coalition of over 60 countries that have come together to help Iraq....We are continuing to deploy more American troops for training. And we have three of four training sites now operational in Iraq. We have about a dozen coalition partners who have trainers there, along with our trainers. We'll have a fourth training camp up soon. So, we are doing everything we can possibly do to help the Iraqis." Let's look at the chessboard of players now active in Iraq and the Middle East. ~~~~~ Today, the AP reported that "Hezbollah's ambitions are spreading far beyond its Lebanon home as the militant shiite group appears increasingly bent on taking on sunni foes across the Middle East." Hezbollah's first sent thousands of its fighters to Syria early last year -- and followed up by sending senior military advisers to Iraq, helping shiite rebels rise to power in Yemen, and threatening Bahrain over its abuse of the shiite majority. But, according to the AP, Hezbollah's expanded operations are taking a heavy toll in lives and threatening to undermine Hezbollah's support at home in Lebanon. ~~~~ Has Hezbollah become overstretched? In the latest episode a few days ago in Hezbollah's ongoing battle with Israel, Israel struck first, hitting a Hezbollah unit near the front line of the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, probably to reduce Hezbollah missile capabilities. Among the seven dead were an Iranian general, a top Hezbollah commander and the son of another former commander-in-chief. Hezbollah retaliation on a large scale seemed inevitable, but it was relatively modest - two Israeli soldiers, Major Yochai Kalangel and Sargeant Dor Nini hy'd, were killed and seven wounded. Rather than Hezbollah being overstretched, Israeli and other analysts say that Iran does not want Hezbollah confrontation with Israel to devolve into war -- not while Iran is hoping to get the United States to sign off on a deal that would let Iran move forward with its nuclear weapons program. Also in play is the costly - in terms of men and resources - Hezbollah role in the Syrian civil war. ~~~~~ In a speech last Friday, Hezbollah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, responded to criticism that Hezbollah's move into foreign areas is weakening its appetite for fighting Israel. Nasrallah said Israel had incorrectly thought that "Hezbollah is busy, confused, weak and drained....The resistance is in full health, readiness, awareness, professionalism and courage." ~~~~~ And rightly might the Hezbollah leader brag about his group's health and battle readiness. Yesterday, the Iran Revolutionary Guard Corp aerospace force commander Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh boasted that Iran has provided short- and mid-range ballistic rocket technologies to its allies, including the Palestinians and Hezbollah. Hajizadeh said that, in addition, information and skills to locally produce military rockets were also given to the governments of Syria and Iraq. Iranian semi-official FARS news agency reported that Hajizadeh said : “The IRGC’s Aerospace Force has developed to a stage in the field of missile industries that it can mass-produce different types of short- and mid-range missiles.” ~~~~~ Israel has good reason to be uneasy. Its defense officials have often voiced concerns over the delivery of mid-range missiles to Hezbollah and the Palestinians because they would put all of Israel within striking distance. “The Islamic Republic of Iran has helped Iraq, Syria, Palestine and the Lebanese Hezbollah by exporting the technology that it has for the production of missiles and other equipment, and they can now stand against the Zionist regime, the ISIL [Islamic State group/ISIS ] and other Takfiri [apostate] groups and cripple them," Hajizadeh was quoted by FARS as saying. He also claimed that Iran is developing its own radar and drone technologies that are being exported to other countries. In 2013, according to the Israel Times, Hajizadeh made various claims as to the improved accuracy of Iranian ballistic missiles, including a supersonic anti-ship missile, the so-called Persian Gulf missile, with a range of over 250 kilometers. Israel has vowed to prevent what it calls “game-changing” technologies from falling into the hands of Hezbollah. Several airstrikes in the past three years, attributed to Israel although never acknowledged, were said to have targeted advanced weapons shipments heading to the Lebanese Hezbollah. Further, Palestinians in the Gaza Strip have steadily increased the range of their rocket attacks on Israeli towns and cities. During 2014’s summer operation, in which the IDF battled Hamas, over 4,000 rockets were fired at Israel, including several that reached Tel Aviv and the outskirts of Haifa in the north, and threatened air traffic at Ben Gurion international airport. Last November, Revolutionary Guard Brigadier General Sayed Majid Moussavi said that the Palestinians and Hezbollah had received Fateh-class missiles from Teheran. The Fateh-110 missile has a range of about 200 kilometers (120 miles) and can carry a 500-lb payload. ~~~~~ Iran is rapidly increasing its operational presence in the Middle East -- from Iraq and Syria to Bahrain and Yemen. The removal of Yemen's president by Houthi rebels supported by Iranian Quds militiamen -- the Iran special forces that are a part of the Revolutionary Guard responsible for foreign activities, numbering perhaps up to 50,000 and who report to the Supreme Leader -- and the death of Saudi King Abdullah has led to uncharted conditions in the Middle East. The kingdom has relied on the United States as a protector, but the US rapprochement with Iran has made Saudi leaders uneasy, and made Saudi's own rapprochement with Egypt and the United Arab Emirates for defense cooperation inevitable, given Saudi Arabia's growing distrust of US motives, leadership and maintenance of alliance obligations. One fear in the region is that the transition of Saudi leadership from Abdullah to his half-brother Salman bin Abdul Aziz may reduce the ability of the kingdom to move decisively if challenged by the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels who now control Yemen on the Saudi southern border. The big prize for Iran is the Saudi eastern provinces, where the oil fields are located. The Saudi shiite minority lives in this region and is a further Iran justification for intervention. However, the overarching reason for Saudi Arabia's unease is the US-Iran talks over Teheran's nuclear program. These talks, believed to have been started without informing Saudi King Abdullah, are viewed by Riyadh as a sign of a weakening American-Saudi alliance. US unnamed officials say they have assured the new Saudi king of support and a willingness to contain the civil war in Yemen. One looming question is whether the Saudi kingdom will continue pumping oil at extremely high levels, driving the price per barrel down and forcing Iran, its competitor and enemy, as well as Russia, into an economic slide. With 20% of global oil reserves, Saudi Arabia can tolerate this revenue downturn. Saudi rulers are likely to continue their present overall moderate course of action, perhaps even attempting to buy off the Yemeni Houthis rather than confronting them. But, how will the Iran-supported shiite Houthis respond. If they think the Saudi rulers are hesitant, they may use Yemen as a staging area for an attack on the kingdom. Alternatively, the Houthis could align with ISIS in Iraq and Syria to put additional pressure on the Saudis. This would mix up alliances because Iran - the Houthis' benefactor - is fighting against ISIS in Syria and Iraq. But, the immediate threat to Saudi Arabia comes directly from Iran, whose influence in Yemen is a source of anxiety. With Yemen comes an Iran presence in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Hormuz, so that Iran could control the sea lanes Saudi Arabia depends on for oil exports. In the past, Saudi Arabia could rely on its American ally to protect its regional interests and sea lanes. Today?~~~~~ Dear readers, if President Obama is intent on playing an Iran card - in an effort to defeat ISIS ? - by bending to Iran's nuclear enrichment demands, Saudi options will be limited. King Salman could secure nuclear weapons if Iran is given a green light for making weapons-level nuclear material -- analysts say that a US-Iran nuclear deal will clearly start a nuclear arms race in the Middle East. Or could Iran use its regional influence to broker a deal with Saudi Arabia, one that leaves the US out of the Middle East equation? Highly unlikely, but in the Middle East, anything is possible - while Barack Obama is US President.