Obama, Congress and Cuba

President Barack Obama's approval rating is below that of three out of four of America's last two-term Presidents at the same point in their presidencies. A new Gallup Poll shows that Obama, whose average job approval rating among Americans in December was just under 43%, places him above only George W. Bush in the same period in their second term. The Gallup poll found that Obama's approval rating falls below three other two-term Presidents during the sixth year of their two terms, with President Bill Clinton at 67% despite the Lewinsky affair and ongoing impeachnrnt proceedings, President Ronald Reagan at 48% while under fire in the Iran Contra scandal, and President Dwight Eisenhower at 57% with no scandal but simply down from earlier ratings around 70%. Only President George W. Bush's approval rating falls below Obama's at a similar point in his second term, with 37% approval. Obama's 2014 rating has hovered around the 40% mark, and, Gallup notes, this is not likely to improve. "Given that Obama's ratings over this year have been very stable, the normal trend would be to see his ratings continue in the 40% range going forward. But that's simply a default estimate based on current performance and by no means a prediction," according to Gallup : "In short, we have a portrait this year of a public whose evaluation of the President has become immune to substantial ups and downs - a public whose opinions of the President have settled into a pretty stable low-40% range." However, a CNN/ORC December poll shows Obama's approval rating up to 48%, a 20-month high point for him, and the highest since May of last year. CNN/ORC, like Gallup, cites recent increases in the economy, the stock market's record performance and Obama's actions on Cuba and immigration as likely causes. However, the CNN/ORC poll reveals that Obama's gains are due to increased support among women, independents and millennials, whereas among men, Republicans and those between 35-49, his approval fell. And, finally, AOL News -- while agreeing with Gallup and CNN/ORC about Obama's slightly higher approval rating in the current poll probably being caused by his action to ease sanctions against Cuba, improvements in the economy and his stance on the Ferguson riots -- speculates that Obama's recent appearance on the "Colbert Report" may have increased his approval ratings, due to the "Colbert Bump" in approval noted among other politicians who have appeared on the show. A comic twist to a low approval rating for President Obama. ~~~~~ If Gallup and the other pollsters are right in concluding that President Obama's stable to slightly increased approval ratings are in part because of his December 17 announcement that he would exchange prisoners and re-establish relations with Cuba, the pollsters forgot to ask the US Congress, where his new Cuba policy is encountering serious obstacles. Congress' new session starts tomorrow, and questions related to Cuba's human rights record and the promised release of Cuban detainees will most likely inflame anti-Cuba passions on Capitol Hill even more. Both the House and Senate are expected to hold hearings soon after the new session begins. The tone of the hearings will almost certainly show that benefits from Obama's scrapping of the half-century US isolation of Cuba will not be seen soon. The hearings will generate impassioned debate over political suppression in Cuba today, ranging from the total suppression of freedom of political speech to long periods of imprisonment without trial for political dissenters. Regime leader Raoul Castro's statement in a recent speech to the Cuban parliament that the regime will continue to suppress dissent has not helped his cause with Congress. Further, in late December, the Cuban government detained more than 50 activists, according to dissident leaders, who say the arrests were meant to prevent a planned gathering in Havana's Revolution Square. The crackdown was sharply criticized by the US State Department, and all those detained have been released, dissidents say. Another serious US concern is when 53 people whom Washington considers political prisoners will be released and on what terms. A senior Obama aide said after the December 17 announcement that Cuba had agreed to free them as part of the deal to restore diplomatic relations and that an unspecified number of them had already been released. Raoul Castro actually referred to Cuba's freeing of a group of persons the US "has shown interest in" when he announced the Obama deal but didn't mention how many. Cuban dissident groups say that most of the political prisoners remain in some kind of detention. For an inexplained reason, the White House has refused to release the names of the 53 and has not shared the list with the dissident groups. A source with knowledge of the agreed prisoner release told Reuters the delay stems from lack of a final deal about where the prisoners will go - to the United States or Europe, or staying in Cuba. The Cuban government has routinely preferred that such prisoners leave the country when released, but some may be insisting on their right to stay in Cuba to take up their fight for political rights. All of these issues energize congressional critics of Obama's Cuba policy, and they have said they will seek to slow or block renewing relations with Cuba. Senator Marco Rubio, the Florida Republican who is considering a run for President in 2016, says the Castro regime's latest acts of repression against political dissidents "make a mockery of President Obama's new US-Cuba policy....The fact that the regime continues to violate the human rights of Cubans like this shows that it has even less incentive to change its ways" after Obama's deal with Castro. The first congressional fight with the President over his Cuba policy will probably come when Congress considers funding for the Department of Homeland Security, whose budget was made effective only until February 27, because conservative Republicans want to clamp down on Obama's executive orders on illegal immigrants. Now, congressional aides say they expect lawmakers opposed to the Cuba policy to use the DHS funding bill to eliminate any funding for Obama's Cuba plans. Arturo Valenzuela, the State Department's top official for Latin America in Obama's first term, recently told Reuters : "It's clear to me that what the Cubans want is perestroika [reform of the Communist Party], but they don't particularly want glasnost [making the society more open]....It's too early really to tell how this is going to work itself through, and it's probably going to take longer than some people maybe expect." And, while some US lawmakers of both parties vehemently oppose normalizing relations with Cuba, many legal experts, and the White House, say Obama has broad executive powers to ease restrictions on commerce, transportation and banking, as well as to open a US Embassy in Cuba - even if Congress objects. ~~~~~ Dear readers, if President Obama's approval ratings are low at around 40%, those of Congress are lower at around 15%. How these ratings trend in 2015 will in large part depend on how the coming battle between Congress and the President plays out. Obama has said he will veto any bill he disagrees with. This could be most bills -- because the Republican Congress leadership 2015 action list includes trimming Obamacare, tax reform, budget growth control and immigration. Meanwhile, Gallup polls show that Democrats' optimism has dropped, with only 60% saying they expect 2015 to be a better year. But Independents and Republicans didn't change their outlook much, the poll showed, with Independents' outlook dropping by 1% and Republicans outlook climbing by 1%. Still, Democrats are more optimistic about 2015 than Republicans - only 34% of GOP voters said they expect the new year to be better than 2014 was. And, a new year Pew poll showed that only 26% of Americans overall said they are satisfied with national conditions, and 71% are dissatisfied. And overall, just 49% said 2015 will be better than 2014, but 42% said it will be worse. In the US, 2014 proved to be a difficult year, with the rise of ISIS, racial division and protests over police shootings, and Ebola. Americans are feeling down, but the real "downer" is Europe, where recession, looming deflation, new Greek troubles, and a weak Euro are weighing heavily. If the GOP can keep the US economy on the mend and hold off Obama's penchant for tax-and-spend policies, America may be able to lead Europe back to economic health. But a large dose of small government GOP-type parliaments in Europe would help immensely.