Europe Is Fragile and Putin Knows It

We are inclined to think that all the world's problems are in the Middle East, and, indeed, some of our greatest challenges and horrors emanate from the region. But there are serious troubles much closer -- in Ukraine and western Europe. ~~~~~ In rebel-held Donetsk, in eastern Ukraine, civilians are being killed on both sides as heavy fighting continues for control of the key town, with the Kiev government and Russia-supported rebels fighting over key rail and road junctions. The main rebel stronghold, Donetsk, is being pounded by heavy artillery, including multiple rocket launchers and heavier artillery coming from the direction of the airport, a constant battlefield. A Reuters cameraman in Donetsk reported seeing six bodies. CNN had similar figures, reporting 12 confirmed deaths today. Downtown Donetsk looked like a bombed-out WWII European town in CNN video. Not only Donetsk but also nearby towns are under fierce attack, with rebels encircling government garrisons and cutting off water and electricity supplies. Eight civilians were killed in rocket attacks Thursday. Kiev's military said five of its servicemen had also been killed and 23 wounded in fighting in the past 24 hours, describing the situation in the conflict zone as "hard." "They are repeatedly using Grad missiles, artillery, mortars, tanks and rocket launchers," a spokesman said in a televised briefing. In Debaltseve, east of Donetsk, seven civilians were killed on Friday by separatist shelling of their homes, a regional police chief said in a Facebook post. He also reported another seven civilians killed in and around the town in the previous 24 hours. The heavy fighting in eastern Ukraine torpedoed peace talks set to begin today in Belarus. In fact, the talks were aborted before they began. Rebel delegates flew to the Belarus capital Minsk, only to announce that no talks would take place on Friday and they were flying straight back to Moscow. The past week has been the worst fighting since the ceasefire was signed five months ago, with rebels announcing an offensive that Kiev says amounts to a repudiation of the truce. NATO and Kiev accuse Russia of sending thousands of troops, heavy weapons and tanks to support the rebel advance. Moscow insists it is not directly involved in fighting over territory that the Kremlin refers to as "New Russia." The immediate fear of Kiev and its NATO allies is a looming rebel offensive on Mariupol, a town of 500,000 people, by far the biggest government-held city in the east. It was hit by shelling last Saturday, killing 30 civilians, according to Kiev. The rebels have denied that Mariupol is a target for now. The rebels have said their principal aims currently are to push government guns out of range of their cities and make their positions more secure by "straightening out the front" -- choking off government-held areas and thus making existing rebel areas more defensible. This would nake sense if, as many Western countries suspect, Russia's aim is to achieve a stable "frozen conflict" in eastern Ukraine. The leaders of France and Poland called for EU relations with Moscow to be "rethought." ~~~~~ And, not satisfied with the havoc he has wreaked on Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin has again launched fighter jets over the EU. Great Britain summoned the Russian ambassador to explain why two Russian long-range bombers flew over the English Channel on Wednesday, flying dangerously close to passenger planes. The British Typhoon fighters were scrambled to escort the long-range Russian Bear planes - which are capable of carrying nuclear weapons - out of the UK's “area of interest.” The Telegraph reported that its sources said the Russian planes were flying without their transponders turned on, making them invisible to civilian aircraft. Some inbound flights were diverted to avoid potential disaster. The incident was part of an "increasing pattern of out-of-area operations by Russian aircraft", according to the British Foreign Office. A British government source told the Telegraph the move was viewed as "a significant escalation" on the part of Putin because Russian aircraft had previously only dared to fly close to Scotland. The British said the manoeuvre in the English Channel could have been designed to. ‘probe the RAF speed of reaction’ - raising fears that the Russians were looking for weaknesses in the British fighter force. Within seconds of the bombers deviating from their usual flight path, the British quick reaction alert (QRA) jets were scrambled. A defence source said the RAF always‘maintains the highest level of readiness’ just as in the days of Battle of Britain. The Typhoons flew so close to the Russian planes - roughly 1,000ft away - that they could signal to the pilots. A QRA is launched to intercept aircraft that cannot be identified by any other means. In this case, the Russians would either not have filed a flight plan, not transmitted a recognisable surveillance radar code, or failed to talk to air traffic control. ~~~~~ And if we thought that France was one family united against jihadists, we need to rethink. It was bad enough when France learned that the minute of silence for victims of the January Charlie Hebdo massacre, nation's deadliest terror attacks in decades, was not respected by all students. Some children contested it. Some walked out. But when an 8-year old Muslim boy proclaimed, "I am with the terrorists," the alarm bells sounded at full strength. The boy's cry brought into stark relief the divide between mainstream France and a portion of the Muslim population, often from neglected neighborhoods. But the official reaction - hauling the boy into the police station for questioning - also triggered debate, with many seeing it as a sign of mounting hysteria. Put in context, perhaps the French reaction can be understood. More French have embraced jihad in Syria and Iraq than in any other European country - over 1,000. Dozens of these fighters have returned, feeding fears they could turn their battle skills on France. In early January, those fears were realized, as three Frenchmen with links to Islamic extremists went on their rampage. The French government is determined to prevent more bloodshed. This week, it started a "stop jihad" website that mimics the media tactics of ISIS, which lures youth to the battlefront - while, crucially, adding a dose of real-life warnings about what the siren calls from Syria can mean. They range from being killed far from home to having a role in massacres of children. President Francois Hollande held a day-long emergency meeting on Thursday with school officials, associations and mayors of poor suburbs with crime-infested housing projects - widely believed to also be filled with potential jihadists. The government is trying to devise a plan to bridge the divide between the haves and have-nots and bring the values that define French citizenship, notably equality and secularism, to this parallel world. The incident of the 8-year-old boy illustrates how the issues that divide may be seeded long before adolescence. ~~~~~ More? A survey of French adults taken last week by IFOP pollsters for left-leaning magazine Marianne showed that far-right anti-EU znti-immigration Marine Le Pen, leadet of the Front National, would win 29 to 31% of the vote -- up from 26% in the previous survey and more than Hollande -- in the first round of the 2017 presidential election, based on people's current voting intentions. The survey showed Hollande winning 21% and not making it to the second and final round. Former President Nicolas Sarkozy and ex-prime minister Alain Juppe, both of the conservative UMP party, and Hollande's prime minister Manuel Valls would all do better than Hollande, with 23% in the first round, the survey of 983 voters showed. However, Le Pen would not be elected president even in a head-to-head against the weak Hollande, with a highest predicted score of 45% in a second-round run-off, the poll showed. ~~~~~ Dear readers, we have already seen an anti-EU anti-immigration, far left party come to power in Greece. The EU economic stranglehold drove Greek voters to the far left. And today, we saw EU deflation, led by German figures, worsen. Unemployment at an EU 11.5% average, deflation, a devalued Euro making urban political leaders talk about even higher taxes, and genuine fear about the homegrown jihadist menace in their midst, Europe is fragile. The political scene, full of far right and far left parties offering nationalism instead of the EU and an end to most immigration, are challenging mainstream parties in France, Germany, Belgium, The Netherlands, Greece and Britain. The time, reminiscent of the 1930s, should make everyone uneasy. Putin is not playing war games. His target is Europe.