The Israel Election : What You Need to Know

Even before Israel's unexpected election campaign gets off the ground, most analysts see the election of a coalition that supports Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as the clear outcome. And the first poll taken after Netanyahu's decision shows that when asked who would be the most suitable prime minister, 31% said Netanyahu, well ahead of Labor’s Isaac Herzog, in second place at 19%. The same poll showed Netanyahu's Likud Party taking 22 Knesset seats, with the second taking 17. But, Haaretz -- the leftist daily newspaper heavily criticized for being pro-Palestine because it is the only Israeli paper permitted by the Palestinian Authority to have reporters on the ground in the West Bank -- is offering 15 reasons why Netanyahu could lose. Two of the reasons have a certain ring of political possibility : (1). After 9 years as prime minister, Netanyahu may simply be facing voter fatigue, as he did in 1999 when "Anyone but Netanyahu" was a campaign slogan. (2). Netanyahu's approval rating polls are in freefall, going from 77% to 38% in the past year. But, as with all political contests -- and especially in a parliamentary democracy like Israel, where coalitions come together to create a bloc of parliamentary votes that form a majority -- the outcome is decided by the deals made by leaders who control voting blocs. And in Israeli politics, there is no shortage of voting blocs and their ambitious leaders. Let's try to sort out who and what are going to play key roles. ~~~~~ Benjamin Netanyahu is the leader of the Likud Party, the major cobservative political party in Israel. It was founded in 1973 by Menachem Begin. Likud's victory in the 1977 elections was a major turning point in the country's political history, marking the first time the left had lost power. In addition, it was the first time in Israe that a right wing party won the plurality of the votes. Now, Netanyahu wants a mandate for a fourth term as prime minister by increasing support for Likud, securing a popular vote that shows a strong majority for a "national bloc" that includes his traditional allies of ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties : (1) Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman's nationalist Yisrael Beitenu faction, and (2) the hard line Jewish Home party, led by Naftali Bennett, which is strongly linked to the West Bank settler movement. The Netanyahu bloc tends to take a hard line in peace talks with the Palestinians. ~~~~~ In the last vote in 2013, the Netanyahu parties earned a combined 61 out of 120 seats in the Knesset (parliament). The one-vote majority made it impossible for Netanyahu to rule effectively and so he was forced to reach out to two centrist parties : (1) Yesh Atid - founded and led by Yair Lapid, a former journalist, in 2012; Yesh Atid seeks to represent what it considers the center of Israeli society, the secular middle class, and focuses primarily on civic, social, and governance issues. In 2013, Yesh Atid placed a very surprising second in the general election, winning 19 seats, far more than polls had predicted. Today's poll shows it losing seats and falling to 9 Knesset members in this election; and (2) Hatnuah, a center-left party describing its issues as social and liberal, formed by Tzipi Livni, who took over the remains of the Hetz party, also inheriting the NIS 1.8 million in the party's bank account and its 7 Knesset members, all of whom were allies of Livni; on 1 December 2012, former Labor leader Amram Mitzna joined the party, followed by former Labor leader, Amir Peretz, on 6 December. Livni became Justice Minister in the 2013 Netanyahu coalition. While Yesh Atid and Hatnuah shored up his majority, Netanyahu's feuds with then led to his current decision to call a new election. ~~~~~ As the March 2015 election nears, neither Yesh Atid nor Hatnuah seem poised to be key players. But, Israeli analysts are tapping a former ally of Prime Minister Netanyahu as possibly the biggest potential challenge to his re-election. Moshe Kahlon was the most popular Cabinet minister in Netanyahu's previous government, having wide appeal because of his working-class background and for pushing daring reforms. But prior to the 2013 election he abruptly quit politics over differences with Netanyahu. However, he's now back with a new centrist party that could successfully lead those seeking to topple the longtime Israeli leader. Kahlon responded swiftly to Netanyahu's call for elections, officially announcing the new party Wednesday in a speech to university students : "I am returning to the political arena. I used to be in a very strong political framework, but I decided to establish a new framework and this is for our children." He gave no details about his political platform, but he has historically taken hard line positions toward the Palestinians, although more recently Kahlon has expressed support for a territorial compromise that would establish a Palestinian state. However, his agenda focuses more on economic and cost-of-living issues. If Netanyahu can't find a majority on his own, according to Avraham Diskin, a political scientist from Jerusalem's Hebrew University, Kahlon's "in great shape." Early opinion polls predict that Kahlon will win a solid 10 to 12 seats, even before announcing a platform or fellow party members. He appears poised to take a big chunk out of the elusive "center" of Israeli politics - an electorate reportedly tired of the traditional Likud and Labor parties. Yesh Atid's Yair Lapid was the big winner in 2013 after tapping into economic concerns among this group. It may be Kahlon's turn in March 2015. Political commentator Nehama Dueck said a lot depends on what kind of people Kahlon surrounds himself with. "He appears ready to recruit a "dream team" of military, economic and social figures to help him reach a larger audience. parliament," said Dueck. "In Israel, we have this 'thing' about multiple parties and we're always looking for the new, fresh party that offers hope. Kahlon is the next big thing." ~~~~~ Dear readers, all these alternatives to Benjamin Netanyahu are silent on two major themes - military security, and national survival in the face of the Iranian nuclear threat, Hamas/Hezbollah/ISIS and an increasingly hostile Europe. None of Netanyahu's potential rivals can claim credentials coming close to the current Prime Minister's in these critical areas. Benjamin Netanyahu will be elected Prime Minister once again. Everything points in that direction. Israelis may be tiring of Netanyahu, but they know that there is no one who can compete with his national security credentials. And there is no battle-trained general like Yitzhak Rabin or Ehud Barak to once again sweep the Labor Party to power. Tzipi Livni was foreign minister, but her day has passed. Labor’s Isaac Herzog and Yair Lapid have not sat in any ministerial position focused on defense or foreign affairs, a prerequisite to electoral victory. ~~~ AND, there is another far more interesting coalition crying out to be created. Naftali Bennett, the vocal leader of the far right of Likud, tough on dealing with Palestine, and a former Netanyahu chief of staff, wants to be Defense Minister. Only a Prime Minister Netanyahu can make that happen. Following his election to the Knesset, Bennett had to renounce his US citizenship, which he had acquired through his parents. But he is well-connected in Washington. And as a result of the 2013 elections, Bennett served as Minister of the Economy, Minister of Religious Services, Minister of Jerusalem and Diaspora Affairs, and a Member of the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee. As a senior Cabinet member, he plays a major role in financial, political and security affairs. The March 2015 kingmaker will most likely be Naftali Bennett. He and Benjamin Netanyahu think alike, are tough-minded practical conservative politicians, and understand what is required to keep Israel safe. They are natural allies. It remains to be seen if their bigger-than-life personas can find a way to do business together. Stay tuned.