Jeb, Hillary and the November Midterm GOP Wave toward the Future

Republican candidates all over America won office in the November midterm election wave. The GOP swept to a majority in both the Senate and House, as well as in state governorships and legislatures. But according to polling experts, the midterm elections also shifted Americans' political allegiance toward the GOP. A Gallup survey shows that before the midterms, 43% of Americans identified as Democrats or leaned toward the Democratic Party, while 39% identified as or leaned Republican. But a day after the election, Republicans had gained a slight but meaningful advantage, 42% to 41%, representing a net shift of 5 percentage points in the gap, in the poll with a margin of error of plus or minus 1 percentage point. Gallup poll analysts wrote that : "Americans are also now more likely to align themselves politically with the Republican Party than the Democratic Party. The 2014 midterms were an unqualified success for the Republican Party, and that success has caused Americans to view the Republican Party more favorably than the Democratic Party, as well as to say congressional Republicans should have more influence than President Barack Obama over the direction the nation takes in the next year." The Gallup poll called the shift a "bandwagon" effect enjoyed by the winning party, noting the GOP also benefited after the 1994 and 2002 midterm elections, while Democrats benefited after the 2006 election. But not every "wave" election has meant a distinct shift in a party's advantage, according to Gallup, citing the no-shift elections in 1998 and 2010. There's also no clear pattern showing how long the effect lasts, Gallup said : "It is not clear how long these good feelings toward the GOP will last. That could be influenced by what Republicans do with their enhanced power." ~~~~~ These poll results should encourage GOP 2016 presidential hopefuls, and it may be the reason for the number of potential GOP candidates now staking out positions and constituencies and visiting Iowa, the first test of how well they are doing. Newsmax has just published an essay about the pack of GOP presidential contenders trying to become the chosen candidate in 2016. The Newsmax advice is not "jump in...the more the merrier," but rather that it makes sense for the three Republicans often seen as the frontrunners - Jeb Bush, Chris Christie and Marco Rubio - "to let the other guys fight it out for 'Survivalist of the Year' and set [their] sights on the party’s other, broader constituencies : the right-leaning independents and mainline conservatives who fear that a Republican nominee too easily caricatured as extreme will lead the country straight into the embrace of Hillary Clinton." The advice is that they should "unify that voting bloc, more or less, and end up going one-on-one with a candidate like Paul or Walker on Super Tuesday, then you’ve got a very real path to the nomination." ~~~~~ In the midst of the GOP wave, The Hill reports that Democrats supporting Hillary Clinton - and that is almost all Democrats, it seems, because Hillary leads her nearest Democrat rival by 55 points - are focusing on four potential Republican challengers for the White House -- Jeb Bush, Rand Paul, Chris Christie and Scott Walker. Rand Paul is the Republican Senator from Kentucky, whose work to attract Republicans and Democrats to his Libertarian brand of GOP principles has made him someone to watch. But, again and again, according to The Hill, Jeb Bush is the top name everyone mentions. The Hill reasons that the former Florida governor would bring structure to the 2016 campaign, as well as a level of sophistication that Clinton allies think is lacking in the other candidates. And, Jeb Bush, because he belongs to the Bush family, could raise millions of dollars instantly and would have the support of Karl Rove’s super-PAC Crossroads GPS, which could raise millions of dollars for him. He could also bring in Hispanic voters, who have often voted for the Democrat presidential candidate. “You can’t discount a Bush. Not at all,” said one Democratic consultant : "...he could easily carry Florida, a swing state. We would be silly and foolish to dismiss those strengths." Hillary Clinton herself seems to be lying back, just like The Hill advised some Republicans to do, not wanting to announce her candidacy too soon. She is still weeks or months away from launching a presidential campaign, and, according to many analysts, she has yet to make up her mind about a second White House bid. Perhaps her hesitation has something to do with her team's perception of the difficulty she would have in beating Bush, the Republican most feared and respected by Clinton and her team. But, at the same time, according to The Hill, Team Hillary thinks she would beat Bush, who during a Washington visit this week pledged that he wouldn’t run away from his positions on immigration and the Common Core education standards to win a GOP primary. The Hill said some of the other candidates might have advantages over Bush in a head-to-head matchup with Clinton. One GOP strategist said Christie “would be the best match-up in a debate,” because he would be fearless in taking on the former Secretary of State’s record, while Paul could be successful at “hitting Clinton on big spending and her ties to corporations.” However, a CNN poll released this week found that Mitt Romney, the GOP 2012 nominee, remains the front-runner among his party’s voters. He received the support of 20% of voters who were asked which Republican was their preferred nominee. Ben Carson, the retired neurosurgeon, came in second at 10%. Bush and Christie were third and fourth, with the former Florida governor receiving 9% and the current New Jersey governor receiving 8%. But, even some GOP analysts say that Romney ranks first among the contenders simply because of name recognition and because he was a solid candidate in 2012, whose positions and criticisms of Barack Obama have proven to be correct. ~~~~~ Dear readers, I think most political pro's will dismiss Hillary Clinton's cronies wringing their hands about Jeb Bush as simply the effort of the Clinton campaign to try to influence the GOP to nominate someone they think she could defeat, because Jeb Bush and Hillary Clinton are in many ways alike -- members of political family dynasties, expected to make politics their life's work, and catered to because of who they are - the wife of a former President, and the son and brother of others. But, the 2014 midterm Republican wave had almost nothing to do with either of them. They both represent the late 20th century, when liberals of both parties were in fashion and who you were counted. They represent a pre-Obama America where there was nothing happening in the country that forced Americans to come to terms with who they are and where they want to go as a nation. Obama changed all that with his unpopular policies that made Americans decide who they really are. And Hillary Clinton is trying to put distance between herself and Barack Obama not because she disagrees with his policies - after all, she carried them out as Secretary of State - but because she is afraid they will sink her presidential ship by antagonizing the base she needs to win. And, Hillary's base, like Jeb Bush's base, is profoundly rooted in the last century. The last time Jeb or Hillary served in public office was 2008 - the year Obama was elected. And don't buy the Democrat Party's favorite accusation - that the new GOP base is a bunch of wild-eyed right wingers. That is the Democrat effort to try to frighten and shame Americans into turning away from the party that speaks out to represent their best interests. Don't follow the old liberal tax-and-spend divide-and-conquer-interest-group siren song of the only candidate the Democrats seem to be able to muster. Listen to what Romney and Paul and Rubio and Cruz and Walker and Christie have to say because they have been vetted in the 21st-century battle for the future of America. They speak for reasonable, constitutional government that is accountable to its citizens. They understand that America is a privileged nation whose exceptional citizens must be free to build a future for themselves and the world. And they know that the new Republican wave is the voice of America agreeing with the Republican vision for the 21st century.