Mitt, Hillary and the Others...the 2016 Race for the White House Has Begun

As predicted, with the 2014 midterms over, attention has turned to the 2016 presidential battle. ~~~~~ An early October Bloomberg/Des Moines Register poll showed that Iowa will be as troublesome for Hillary Clinton in 2016 as it was in 2008, when she placed third, losing to Barack Obama. The recent poll showed the former Obama Secretary of State trailing former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, with 44% of likely Iowa voters saying they would back Romney in a head to head match-up with Clinton, while just 43% would vote for Clinton. Three other Republicans are also within three points of the former Secretary of State, suggesting a real 2016 battle in Iowa, a pivotal swing state. In a general election match-up among likely 2016 voters, Wisconsin Representative Paul Ryan trails Clinton by one point, at 43%, Kentucky Senator Rand Paul is three points behind Clinton at 41%, and Governor Chris Christie, with 38% backing, trails Clinton by five percentage points, while former Florida Governor Jeb Bush's 39% puts him 7 points behind her. Senators Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz also lag Clinton, by 8 and 10 percentage points, respectively. Clinton's support level indicates political weakness for the former first lady, who has said she will make a decision about entering the race early in 2015. Clinton remains a nationally divisive figure. In the October poll, almost half - 49% - of likely Iowa voters said they have an unfavorable view of Clinton, while 47% rated her favorably. Compare that with the 57% of likely voters who have a positive opinion of her husband, former president Bill Clinton, and 39% who view him negatively. Although Democrats have won Iowa in four of the last five presidential elections, the margins were close and it's expected to be close again in 2016. Some of the support for Clinton and Romney is intertwined with a poor opinion of President Obama, whose 2008 primary victory in Iowa's caucuses anchored his presidential bid. Among all Iowa voters, 18% say they still back Obama but less so, and 7% say they don't support him anymore. Just 27% say their enthusiasm remains the same, with 48% saying they never backed him. A majority - 54% - of likely Iowa voters say they have an unfavorable view of the President, compared with 44% who view him favorably. If the 2012 presidential election were held again today, 41% of the likely voters say they would back Romney while 39% would back Obama. This is reflected in the fact that Americans remain negative about the future of the country, with the poll showing that 67% say America is headed in the wrong direction and only 24% saying it is headed in the right direction. ~~~~~ Doug Schoen, former pollster for Bill and Hillary Clinton, isn't even certain Hillary Clinton can win the presidency in 2016. Appearing Sunday on "The Cats Roundtable" on AM 970 in New York, Schoen told host John Catsimatidis that his former boss doesn't have the "new car smell" that President Obama recently said was needed for a 2016"Democratic candidate. He also said 2012 GOP nominee Mitt Romney would be a "formidable opponent" to Clinton. "We’re in a real barn burner....The race hasn’t even begun, and it’s tied ostensibly between Hillary and Mitt Romney." Schoen noted a November 26 Quinnipiac poll showing Romney ahead of Clinton 45% to 44% in a 2016 race. Former GOP Florida Governor Jeb Bush isn't far behind Clinton in the poll, which showed support for Bush at 41% and Hillary at 46% in a head-to-head test. "We’re in a statistical tie here. It’s anyone’s to be won," Schoen said. But, he added that he believes Clinton, the far-and-away Democratic frontrunner, will run. "The real question is how does she separate herself from Obama, yet not get so far away from him that...she doesn’t alienate his base constituents?" Schoen said Clinton needs to establish her own identity, but will find that difficult since her last four years of public service were as Obama's Secretary of State. Meanwhile, Romney has said publicly he has no plans to run again, although most analysts believe he will if Jeb Bush doesn't. Schoen said that if Romney runs, he "would be a formidable opponent to Hillary....I think much of what Mitt said in the last campaign has been validated. And I think he’s been much better on the stump than he was four years ago." ~~~~~ On the Republican side of the 2016 presidential race, Texas Governor Rick Perry will spend his last month in office meeting with more than 500 major GOP bundlers and donors, as he takes the first steps toward a 2016 presidential campaign. The first of the sessions are scheduled this week in Austin, according to organizers who have announced lunches and dinners at the governor's mansion on Tuesday and Wednesday, reports Politico. But while Perry has always had support from Texas donors for his governor races, analysts say he may have trouble raising funds for a 2016 White House run, because of other potential candidates with powerful ties and because of his own baggage. Perry's competition for Texas money includes former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, whose political family has deep ties in Texas, and Senator Ted Cruz, who is a popular, but polarizing, figure in Texas and nationally. Perry is also dogged by his failed 2012 presidential campaign, when his poor debate performances and speeches brought criticism from the business community and forced him to drop out of the race after finishing fifth in the Iowa caucuses. And after he left the campaign, Perry alienated Republicans by backing Newt Gingrich over party favorite and GOP nominee Mitt Romney. Perry also faces public corruption charges, filed by a Texas district attorney's office because he refused to finance it after the DA wouldn't step down following a conviction for driving under the influence. While he insists the charges are politically motivated, they still hang heavy over his presidential candidacy. And, Governor Perry is leaving office in January, depriving him of his most effective public podium. “If Governor Perry is going to run, he’s going to be better prepared, and he’s going to have the resources necessary to compete,” said Republican national committeeman Henry Barbour, who is helping to plan for a potential Perry campaign and is organizing the donor sessions in Austin in December and January. But some of the major donors who supported Perry in 2012 told Politico they may not back him again in 2016. “I’m a huge fan of Governor Perry’s and would do whatever I could to help, but other stars have emerged in the party, and I want to hear what they have to say,” said GOP lobbyist Matt Keelen, mentioning Florida Senator Marco Rubio and Kentucky Senator Rand Paul as being interesting. But another lobbyist, speaking anonymously to Politico, said Perry "ran a crummy campaign in 2012 and is not showing that 2016 will be any better. None of the DC lobbyist crowd who were supporting Perry in 2012 are planning to support him this cycle...he is a good guy, but Perry's time has passed," said the lobbyist, who told Politico he is considering Governors Bobby Jindal of Louisiana or Scott Walker of Wisconsin, if they run. Another GOP bundler said he is waiting to see if Bush runs, and if he doesn't, "I think it'll be time for a new generation." ~~~~~ Dear readers, I think we can eliminate Rick Perry as a serious 2016 presidential contender. Perry has many good qualities - governorship management experience, employment success, energy knowhow, and tough immigration positions. Unfortunately, his brand of Texas campaigning doesn't transfer well to the national stage. And the indictment is a game changer -- it may be unfair, politically motivated and ultimately unsuccessful -- but no one should run for President with an indictment hanging over his head. That went out with Huey Long. As for Hillary Clinton, while I think she would be a very polarizing and weak President much like Barack Obama -- unprepated to manage the presidency, headstrong, opinionated and isolated by the very left-leaning Clinton inner circle that would run the White House -- I wouldn't tell her not to run because she would be the Democrat candidate most easily beaten by almost any GOP candidate. And as Democrat analysts note, Hillary keeps others from running and also is the Democrat 2016 Anointed One because there are few other possible candidates. The GOP has turned itself around -- in the 2014 midterm state legislature elections Republicans had a net gain of 59 women, while Democrats lost 63 women, and the GOP gained 10 Latinos while the Democrats lost 5 -- while the Democrat Party has been ignored and torn apart by President Obama and his non-party-based inner circle. The victory of a Republican in 2016 would complete the turnaround not only of the GOP but of America, putting the nation back on course to follow the Constitution and bring hope back to Americans by enacting laws that favor job creation, clean up the Obamacare mess, and balance the federal budget.