Turn the Peshmerga Loose on ISIS

There are several related stories focusing on the Middle East today. ~~~~~ The Wall Street Journal, and most US media, are reporting today that President Barack Obama secretly wrote to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the middle of October and described a shared interest in fighting ISIS militants in Iraq and Syria, according to people briefed on the correspondence. Obama’s Letter to Iran has made Congress nervous. The letter seemed to be aimed both at buttressing the campaign against ISIS and nudging Iran’s religious leader closer to a nuclear deal. The same sources say Obama stressed to Khamenei that any cooperation on ISIS was largely contingent on Iran reaching a comprehensive agreement with global powers on the future of Tehran’s nuclear program by a November 24 diplomatic deadline. The October letter apoears to be at least the fourth time Obama has written Iran’s powerful political and religious leader since taking office in 2009, when he pledged to engage with Tehran’s Islamist government. The existence of the letters underscores President Obama's view that Iran is important - whether constructively or negatively - to his emerging military and diplomatic campaign to push ISIS from the territories it has gained over the past six months. Obama and senior administration officials have recently said the chances for a deal with Iran are only 50- 50. US Secretary of State John Kerry is set to begin intensive direct negotiations on the nuclear issue with his Iranian counterpart, Javad Zarif, on Sunday in the Persian Gulf country of Oman. For the first time this week, a senior administration official said negotiations could be extended beyond the November 24 deadline. Also, the White House will know after Mr. Kerry’s trip to Oman whether a deal with Iraq is possible, as well as whether a negotiation extension will be required and under what terms. USA TODAY reports that the US-led air campaign against ISIS fighters began in August, while Iranian-backed shiite militias and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps began fighting the group on the ground much earlier this year. The Obama letter can also be seen as part of his effort to round up a coalition of nations to join in rolling back the militants from positions in Iraq and Syria. But, White House and State Department officials have stressed that US forces are not coordinating with Iran in the fight against the militants, although they are concerned about Iran's military role in Iraq. Part of Obama's message to the Iranian Ayatollah was that US military operations in Iraq and Syria aren't aimed at weakening Teheran or its allies, USA TODAY reported. Republican Senator Mark Kirk, who co-sponsored legislation to increase sanctions on Iran if it does not agree to a deal, told USA TODAY in a statement that "America's strongest move to stop a nuclear Iran isn't sending secret presidential love letters to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, it's passing the Menendez-Kirk legislation to get a real nuclear deal with Iran." The White House had earlier successfully lobbied Democrat Senators to avoid a vote on the sanction bill, but now that the GOP controls the Senate, this may change. ~~~~~ AP published a report on the current status of ISIS in Iraq and Syria today. The ISIS force built its reputation on an aura of momentum and invincibility, but ISIS is now dealing with a series of military setbacks in Iraq and a prolonged stalemate in the small Syrian border town of Kobani. ISIS can no longer sweep into areas on Iraq and Syria and subdue them with relative ease. Its new problems, including a loss of oil revenue, raise questions about the extent to which it will be able to continue recruiting fighters who want to be with a winner, according to AP. ISIS has waged "a very successful psychological campaign to intimidate rivals and attract support and recruits," Faysal Itani, a resident fellow at the Atlantic Council, told AP. But now, he said, the need to maintain its reputation is limiting the group's options. This is especially true in Kobani, where a pre-emptive ISIS withdrawal in the face of US-led bombings from the sky and ethnic Kurdish fighters on the ground could be very costly. "They have invested a lot in this battle, and people are noticing. They will soon start asking what's going on?" said Ayed, a Turkey-based Syrian activist who travels back and forth to the group's stronghold in the Syrian city of Raqqa. AP says that the prolonged Kobani battle has distracted ISIS from more strategically important areas in Syria and Iraq where the militant extremists are already stretched on multiple fronts. Nearly two months after ISIS launched its lightning assault on the Kurdish-dominated town near Turkish border, it is bogged down in an increasingly dug-in and costly battle. Syrians and Kurds estimate that nearly 600 ISIS fighters have been killed - its heaviest losses since taking over large parts of Syria and Iraq in the summer blitz. Kurdish residents of Kobani told AP that the group appears to be struggling with personnel, bringing in inexperienced fighters and new recruits to reinforce the town. These include members of the ISIS police force known as Hisba, reassigned from ISIS-controlled towns and cities, such as Raqqa and Manbij. Hiisba groups have left Raqqa in the past two weeks, telling people they were headed to Kobani," Ayed said. "They are not fighters." Kobani residents say recent US Kobani airstrikes targeting ISIS have inflicted heavy damage. "Their bodies are left for days rotting in the street without anyone picking them up," said Farhad Shami, a Kobani-based activist. In a move interpreted as a sign of weakness, ISIS recently released a video showing a captive British photojournalist "reporting" from a place identified as Kobani, saying the battle for Kobani "is coming to an end" and ISIS is "mopping up." But despite seven weeks of fierce fighting, with reinforcements on both sides, positions around Kobani remain the same as they did several weeks ago, with ISIS controlling about 40% of the town, according to Syrian and Kurdish activists and observers. And, last week Iraqi forces recaptured the town of Jurf al-Sakher. ISIS also recently lost Rabia, Mahmoudiyah and Zumar, a string of towns near the Syrian border. Besieged Iraqi troops have also maintained control of Iraq's largest oil refinery outside the town of Beiji north of Baghdad, despite numerous attempts by ISIS to capture it. ISIS' troubles are in part a result of the fact that it already controls so much of the territory populated by minority sunnis. It would be much harder to conquer areas populated by shiites. But even in sunni areas, ISIS is having to contend with dissent. Over the past few days, the group has massacred more than 200 sunni tribesmen from the Al Bu Nimr tribe in what is apparently revenge for the tribe's siding with Iraqi security forces. The killings, in which the militants lined up and shot the men, suggest IS fighters now view them as a threat. ~~~~~ Meanwhile, the Defense Department is working to establish a program to train and equip moderate Syrian opposition forces, the Pentagon press secretary said Tuesday. The curriculum and training sites are being prepared and instructors are being lined up, Navy Rear Admiral John Kirby told reporters. Trainers for the program will be contributed by nations from across the coalition, not just from the United States The process by which opposition forces will be vetted is still being codified, as well as resolvinf a number of issues, including which nation will take the lead in vetting and training the forces. Kirby said : “There's still some additional work that needs to be done...And we're all mindful of the importance in getting it - the program - getting it established and getting it running. It's more important to get this right than to get it fast, because the stakes are so high and because it matters so much - that we can deliver on helping develop a trained, moderate opposition in Syria that has the requisite leadership and military skills to actually go ahead and defend territory inside Syria. We're looking forward to getting this train and equip program up and running so that we can train a moderate opposition to better defend their citizens, their towns or villages, to go against ISIL and to work towards a settlement inside Syria.” I wonder if the trainees are going to West Point????~~~~~ Dear readers, I offer the US military and President Obama a few suggestions. First, forget about schmoozing Iran's Ayatollah - it will accomplish nothing and the GOP Congress will not look kindly on secret letters from Obama to Khomenei. Second, put your training program on hold until Obama actually has a coalition. He obviously doesn't have one yet. And third, you don't need a moderate Syrian militia anyway -- just have the courage to tell Turkey to suck it up while you arm and support the Kurdish peshmerga. They will get rid of ISIS.