Iran, China, North Korea : The Dark Circle of Illegal Nuclear Weapons Development

As President Barack Obama begins his Asian trip, his most powerful days may be behind him but his most difficult problems may lie ahead. In Asia, Obama has never been seen as a player of the hardball diplomacy that marks Asian leaders. And with his party defeated in the midterm elections, making Democrats the minority in both chambers of Congress, his Asian counterparts will factor this into their meetings with Obama. In a significant move, Chinese state media criticized Obama prior to his visit : "Obama always utters 'Yes, we can,' which led to the high expectations people had for him," said an editorial in the English-language Chinese Global Times. "But he has done an insipid job, offering nearly nothing to his supporters. US society has grown tired of his banality." In fact, Obama's first meeting in Beijing was not a tour-de-force but a sit-down with President Joko Widodo of Indonesia, where Obama lived as a child. According to the AP, Obama was 'effusive,' calling Widodo's election an "affirmation of the full transition Indonesia has made to a thriving democracy and a model for the kind of tolerance and pluralism that we want to see all around the world." Obama will meet with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, but he has already announced a relaxed US visa policy for Chinese. When Obama visits Myanmar and Australia, leaders will be wondering whether Obama's Asia-Pacific ambitions have been sidetracked by costly crises in Ukraine, Africa and the Middle East. ~~~~~ The news before Obama left on Saturday focused on Asia, where North Korea released two American detainees after Obama's spy chief made a secret trip to Pyongyang to secure their freedom. The North Koreans had let it be known that if a high-ranking US official went to NK, they would release the two Americans. So, Obama sent his Director of National Intelligence James Clapper, who returned to the US on Saturday with the two Americans in tow. Clapper met with North Korean security officials, but not leader Kim Jong Un, according to an unnamed official traveling with Obama to Asia. The senior official said North Korea's decision to free the men does not indicate a change in the US position regarding NK's human rights record or its disputed nuclear program. Many analysts suggest that the NK conciliatory moves, after years of warmongering, were caused by pressure over a recent UN report documenting rape, torture, executions and forced labor in North Korea's prison camps, and accusing NK of "widespread, systematic and gross" human rights violations, underscoring an international resolve to act, including a pending UN resolution to refer North Korea and leader Kim Jong Un to the International Criminal Court. However, China, North Korea's benefactor, is likely to block any UN prosecution of Kim. Others see the releases as a sign that North Korea wants to open a dialogue with the US. Joseph DeTrani, who was Clapper's North Korea mission manager and now leads an intelligence contractor trade group, said : "They are going through a bad patch. The last two years have been a disaster. They are more and more of an isolated state. We're seeing an outreach - the leadership in Pyongyang is saying, 'we've got to change course, it's not working.'" ~~~~~ But President Obama's problem is that there may be a more dangerous reason for NK's rapprochement. The Obama administration is now facing its last chance to sign a deal to curb Iran's nuclear program -- not just to meet a November deadline, but to conclude an agreement before Republicans control Congress next year, becoming able to scuttle a deal with Iran, a regime they fundamentally distrust. On Sunday, US Secretary of State John Kerry, Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif and EU senior adviser Catherine Ashton met in Oman as the November 24 agreement deadline looms. A deal could ease Mideast fears about Iran's ability to build a nuclear bomb, but Israel, Saudi Arabia and Egypt are not reassured. For Obama, an Iran nuclear deal would be the elusive foreign relations triumph he desperately wants as part of his legacy, after being berated by both Republicans and Democrats over his handling of the civil war in Syria and the growth of ISIS in Iraq. Those same critics want to halt US-Iranian negotiations, or shut them down completely, once the GOP becomes the congressional majority on January 3. "The Obama administration needs to understand that this Iranian regime cares more about trying to weaken America and push us out of the Middle East than cooperating with us," Republican Senators John McCain, the incoming chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, and Lindsey Graham said in a statement last week. ~~~~~ Why are both Republican and Democrat Senators so skeptical? Because they fear that Iran will secretly enrich enough uranium to build nuclear weapons, even after a deal is reached. For years, Iran hid some nuclear facilities and blocked inspectors' access at others, raising widespread alarms about its intentions. Penalties imposed by the US, EU and UN Security Council have punished Teheran for its covert nuclear weapons program, a program Iran insists is purely peaceful and necessary for medical and energy demands. Last week, Kerry, a former Senate Foreign Relations committee chairman, said that any Senate move to interfere with negotiations would need overwhelming support to be approved. In fact, if a deal is reached before December 31, lawmakers may have only limited ability to undo it, according to experts who believe most US penalties against Iran's financial and oil markets can be suspended, if not lifted entirely, by presidential authority. But with no agreement after January 3, Congress could enact new sanctions and impose new penalties that would tie Obama's hands. A plan to strengthen sanctions if the negotiations expire without a deal has gathered strong backing from Senators of both parties. Administration officials say new sanctions might violate negotiating terms and free Iran to restart its production of enriched uranium. But if the negotiations drag on, the White House thinks new sanctions with delayed triggers could appease lawmakers, while pushing Iran to conclude an agreement. ~~~~~ And, the real danger in the Iran nuclear deal is that even if it is signed, Iran and North Korea may use loopholes that could render the agreement meaningless. Teheran could outsource the completion of a bomb to its ally, North Korea, which is the only country known to have tested nuclear bombs since India and Pakistan performed underground tests in 1998. Despite wide condemnation, NK has made three nuclear tests - in 2006, 2009 and 2013. In 2010, North Korea switched nuclear fuels, moving to a uranium-enrichment program that would fit in well with Iran's. Iranian officials reportedly flew to NK for the February 2013 nuclear test. Nuclear collaboration suits both countries -- North Korea and Iran are close allies with decades of weapons deals and mutual hatred of America, and Iran has oil needed by North Korea, which in turn has weapons needed by Iran. North Korea has supplied missiles and missile technology to Iran since the 1980s, when NK hosted visits by Hasan Rouhani (now Iran's president) and Ali Khamenei (Iran's supreme leader since 1989). North Korea and Iran were both part of Pakistan's notorious A.Q. Khan nuclear proliferation network, which shared nuclear blueprints and material among its clients until it was exposed by the US a decade ago. ~~ And, to close the dark circle, Chinese nationals, undoubtedly with state support, are accused of running a sanctions-violating international procurement network based in China that has sold Iran both missile and nuclear-related materials. Since 2006, the US has repeatedly and unsuccessfully asked China to shut down this network. Another concern in negotiating with Iran is that North Korea can provide Iran with advanced centrifuge technology -- the P-2 centrifuge that is much more efficient than the P-1 centrifuge Iran uses, and better than the IR-2m centrifuge Iran is trying to develop. The Daily Beast reported in January that North Korea has 10,000 P-2 centrifuges. And the Daily Mail said a year ago that North Korea is developing the Hwasong-13 ICBM that military analysts predict will have a 3,500 mile range. It is part of North Korea's ballistic missile development program, under which NK sells missiles and missile technology to countries such as Iran and Pakistan, as spelled out in a 2013 Pentagon report that confirmed US intelligence agencies' conclusion that Iran will test an ICBM as early as 2015 - a prediction which should be a warning for Obama. ~~ So, dear readers, the North Korea release of the two American detainees probably has less to do with human rights or NK isolation and more to do with Iran and China telling their NK client state to be nice to Obama so he hurries to sign the deal, freeing Iran to continue its nuclear weapons development with little US/UN interference.