Thursday, January 23, 2014
Will the Gentle Giant Klitschko Be Able to Tame Yanukovich?
UPDATE UKRAINE : *KIEV - Demonstrations against pro-Russian President Yanukovich and his allies intensified outside the capital, Kiev, as protests grow increasingly violent this week. Opposition leaders have given Yanukovich a deadline of Thursday evening to make concessions or face renewed clashes. But protesters in Kiev, attempting a temporary ceasefire, put out the barricade fires that had filled the capital in black smoke and the president called for a special parliament session next week, telling the parliament speaker : "The situation demands an urgent settlement." But there was no indication that the move was an indication of a Yanukovich compromise, since the president's backers hold a majority of seats. The protests became violent this week after Yanukovich pushed through harsh anti-protest laws, rejecting protesters' demands that he resign and call new elections. *THE WESTERN UKRAINE. - Support for Yanukovich is almost non-existent and most residents want closer ties to the 28-nation EU. Thursday, hundreds of activists stormed the office of regional governor Oleh Salo, a Yanukovich appointee, shouting "Revolution!" and singing Christmas carols. They encircled Salo, demanded that he sign a letter of resignation, then ripped it out of Salo's hands and lifted it up while the crowd cheered. Meanwhile, hundreds of protesters smashed windows and doors and stormed the governor's office in Rivne, shouting "Down with the gang!" - a common reference to Yanukovich's government. Once inside, they sang the national anthem. Angry crowds also besieged government offices in other western cities. *REPRISALS - Anger spread after a video was released online that appears to show police abusing and humiliating a naked protester in what looked like a location close to the site of the Kiev protests. The man, wearing only socks, is forced to stand on the snow in freezing temperatures, while a policeman punches him in the head and others force him to pose for photos. Yanukovich apologized for the "impermissible actions of people wearing police uniforms" and launched an investigation into the incident. Two other protesters have been shot dead and another protester's body was found in a woods near Kiev, showing signs of torture. *PRIME MINISTER AZAROV - On Wednesday, riot police moved to dismantle barricades erected next to a nearby government district and two people were fatally shot in the ensuing clashes. Azarov said on Thursday that the two men's wounds were caused by hunting rifles, which the police do not possess. The Interior Ministry said they could have been killed in order to escalate the crisis. Azarov has maintained a tough stance, calling the protests an attempted coup d'état. Authorities reported that 73 protesters had been arrested, 52 of them charged with "mass riots" - a new criminal charge that carries a prison sentence of up to eight years. *INTERNATIONAL REACTION - EU Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said Thursday that the situation in Ukraine must stabilize, otherwise, the EU "would assess possible consequences in its relationship." Barroso said Yanukovich has given him assurances that he does not see the need to impose a state of emergency. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said this is not the time to consider sanctions against the Ukrainian government but added that it must comply "with its obligations to secure fundamental democratic rights." Merkel said Germany is "appalled" by the way new laws are being "pushed through" that raise questions about fundamental freedoms. Russia, in turn, accused the West of meddling in Ukraine's affairs, according to President Vladimir Putin's spokesman, Dmitry Peskov. *NEGOTIATIONS - Protest leader Virali Klitschko was planning to hold talks with Yanukovich on Thursday. Klitschko urged both protesters and police in Kiev to withhold the use of force until he reports back. He has three main demands : a snap presidential election, the cancellation of the new anti-protest laws and the resignation of the government. Addressing protesters on Wednesday, Klitschko said the president could end the stand- off "without bloodshed." Otherwise," he added, "we will go on the attack." Azarov said opposition leaders should be "more humble" and "move away from the language of ultimatums." ~~~~~ Dear readers, the breaking news as I post this blog is that Vitali Klitschko has emerged from his meeting with President Yarukovich and told the crowd that he believes chances are "high" for a peaceful settlement of the Ukrainian protests. There are no details available, but Klitschko says talks will continue. We can only hope that the gentle giant of a boxer and the thuggish Ukrainian president can find the path out of the spreading civil unrest that threatens the future of Ukraine
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The demonstrations that shook Ukraine throughout November and December 2013 reached a critical turning point on December 17th, when the country’s embattled president, Victor Yanukovych, struck a surprise deal with Vladimir Putin in which Russia bought $15 billion in Ukrainian bonds and slashed the price on natural gas by a third.
ReplyDeleteThe main difference from previous protests, such as the Orange Revolution of nine years earlier, was the sense that no one political leader could provide a quick solution to Ukraine’s troubles, and that people themselves must be responsible for working and organizing for a better future. The average age of those on the square was thirty-six—the younger generation, concerned about the lives their children and grandchildren will lead. Those who had been the idealistic students of the Orange Revolution were now more hardheaded about how to achieve something real and lasting in a society based on European values of dignity, trust, tolerance, honesty, and hard work.
Whether all of these aspirations will be fulfilled remains to be seen. But it seems clear that the civic and political players in this process have had an experience that can only be called mind-altering. The Euromaidan has brought the opposition leaders closer to average citizens than they have ever been. The vision of a Ukraine in Europe has not only become something to fight for, but also something to live for, in a daily struggle against illegitimate authority that is likely to build even when it is not in the headlines of the international press.
The demonstrators must remember one thing … A government can only take from its citizens that which that are willing to give up.
No doubt there were provocateurs among the pro-European protesters. The violence could open a worrying and potentially dangerous chapter in Ukraine's anti-government movement.
ReplyDeleteUnlike previous clashes, there was police restraint, despite attacks from protesters. But it is quite unlikely that the riot police take no action, if violence esclates in the coming days. Moreover the "anti-protest" legislation, which has helped spark these confrontations will serve the government as an extensive legal tool to arrest and detain people.
One thing was clear: political leaders on both sides of the divide are incapable of ending the standoff.
To dismiss the importance of Putin in this equation is a serious misjudgment. Putin will not be shamed on the International Scene over the occurrences in Kiev or at the slightest hint of terrorism at the Winter Olympic Games in mid-February.
ReplyDeletePutin is a most unpredictable soul. His upbringing in the KGB has made him a master of vengeful retaliation. He will have his KGB and state police at the ready. Any person, who could be proud of being the puppeteer of the evil puppet Assad, is in himself an evil player. It would take a document in excess of 100 pages to discuss the what if’s, the possibilities, and the expected endeavors that Putin will put into play if necessary over the next month plus.
The demonstrators in the Ukraine must be careful to move forward with great resolve and mindful of whom they actually up against – and it’s not the puppet in Kiev.
It seems that from late evening news reports that the protests have spread to other municipalities. This is not good news at all. Had the demonstrations stayed located in one area it would have retained the identity of "demonstrations”. Now it has a whole new identity, which could bring upon the protesters a whole new set of restrictive forces. But then again these aren’t about the price of a newspaper – there is a much higher level of seriousness here.
ReplyDeleteWill Klitschko be able to able to negotiate with Yanukovich is any bodies guess. Does Putin and Russia get fully involved? Let’s hope they don’t. If the Russians behind Putin get actively in the picture it will go from “demonstrations” to 2 against 1 civil war, and spreads into neighboring countries possibly.
Are we ready for that scenario? I don’t think so
Russia does not lack political cohesion and its authoritarian plutocracy is tightly controlled. Russia is calling the shots in Ukraine, and over the past few years has infiltrated agents into the both the SBU and armed forces of Ukraine. Expecting local police units to rebel when they are led by foreign officers is wishful thinking, especially since their salaries have been raised.
ReplyDeleteThe opposition is up against a well-financed machine which has a plan for Ukraine continuing to be a "captured state". The opposition is fragmented and has no plan to govern Ukraine other than being opposed to Eunuchovych and his mafia. Until the opposition unites and formulates a well-thought out program and plan that appeals to the citizens of Ukraine no matter which oblast they reside in, the regime will continue to rule in the interests of the oligarchs.
Regrettably, the oligarchs either do not understand that they themselves are under threat by Tsar Putin, or they have transfered so much of their wealth abroad, that they simply don't care and can move out of Ukraine to live comfortably elsewhere. If they cared about Ukraine, they themselves would depose Eunuchovych and install someone who is more palatable to the citizens of Ukraine.
As the resort to unconstitutional laws has shown, the regime will leave no stone unturned to stay in power. There may be no presidential election in Ukraine in 2015, and if Eunuchovych deigns to hold such an election it will be neither free nor fair. They have already declared that vote-buying is legal and allocated funds to buy votes.
Without a strong and united opposition, and a critical mass of people who are willing to do all that is necessary to depose those who have captured their state, Ukraine will remain a "captured state". The events of the last few months have shown that there are many willing to fight against the regime, but the numbers are still too small to constitute the critical mass necessary to achieve victory. Unfortunately, the struggle will continue indefinitely. We can only hope that ultimately the forces of good will triumph over evil.
Bear in mind that what we're watching all came about spontaneously. I think that within a year, the opposition will be even more organized and active than it is now, and will reach further and further into all geographic areas of Ukraine.
ReplyDeleteNo less worrisome is the possibility of continued resistance. Ukraine is a big country and at least two-thirds is populated by people who detest the occupation regime. Imagine that the crackdown in Kyiv succeeds. Is Yanukovych ready for the emergence of small-scale, hit-and-run actions in the provinces? If destroying the physically compact Maidan in Kyiv is a challenge, just imagine how much more difficult it will be to put an end to resistance in hundreds or thousands of cities, towns, and villages? The sultan does have an enormous security apparatus, but will local militia men be willing to kill their friends and neighbors? And what will local Regionnaires do when they and their property become the targets of local resistance movements?
What's already been put into play will not be easily dismantled.