Egypt Is Voting, Iraq Will Vote in April - Don't Count the Middle East Out Yet

It may not feel like a "normal" election in a Western country, but it is an election nonetheless. Today and tomorrow, Egyptians are voting on a new constitution in a referendum that will lead to a likely presidential try by the nation's top general, military chief General Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi, who ousted Islamist President Mohammed Morsi in a sweeping turnaround of the Egyptian government last July supported by the vast majority of Egyptians who demanded it, then. And who support it massively, it seems, now. The vote is expected to result in the approval of a military-backed political roadmap for new elections for a president and a parliament to replace the radical islamist Moslem Brotherhood - Mohammed Morsi government ousted in July. Egypt, the Arab world's most populous nation and a leader in religious and political thought in the Arab world, has been sharply divided between a small but often violent group of Brotherhood supporters in one camp, and the military, security forces and their supporters on the other. AP reports that the voting is marked by 'paranoia', with authorities, the pro-military media and a significant segment of the population showing little or no tolerance for dissent. Those who campaigned for a "no" vote risked arrest by the police, and Egyptians who voiced their opposition to the charter, even just parts of it, were quickly labeled as traitors or close supporters of Morsi. Some 160,000 soldiers and more than 200,000 policemen have been deployed across the nation of 90 million people to protect polling stations and voters against possible attacks by militants loyal to Morsi. According to AP, cars were prevented from parking or driving past polling stations and women were searched by female police officers. CNN showed military helicopters hovering over Cairo and other major cities. A bomb exploded at a Cairo courthouse, with no casualties, in the densely populated neighborhood of Imbaba - a Brotherhood stronghold. Four people were killed as clashes broke out between pro-Morsi protesters and security forces in the south. In the Cairo working class district of Nahya, pro-Morsi protesters shot and hurled rocks at a polling station before closing all entrances with chains, scaring away voters and locking election officials inside, Mohammed Seragedeen, the judge in charge of the station, said. This week's referendum is the sixth nationwide vote since Hosni Mubarak was toppled in a popular uprising in January, 2011, with the five others widely considered the freest elections ever seen in Egypt, including the June 2012 balloting won by Morsi, but afterward tainted by criticism that many of the freedoms won in the anti-Mubarak revolution vanished. After millions of Egyptians took to the streets to demand that the military remove Morsi, el-Sissi led a fierce crackdown on the Moslem Brotherhood and its sharia-based constitution. The new constitution is a heavily amended version of the Morsi islamist constitution that was ratified in December 2012 with 64% of the vote but with a nationwide turnout of just over 30% that made it suspect as representing the political will of the Egyptian people. BUT there are major changes in the new constitution -- it is backed by the military, would ban political parties based on religion, give women equal rights and protect the status of minority Christians. It also gives the military special status by allowing it to select its own candidate for the job of defense minister for the next eight years and empowering it to try in military courts civilians who attack military installations or personnel. And the military has carried out a major PR campaign, supported by threats to deal harshly with anyone who attempts to interfere with the referendum vote, in an effort to have a bigger "yes" majority and larger turnout to win undisputed legitimacy and a popular mandate for military chief General el-Sissi to run for president this year. The pro-military media have portrayed the balloting as the key to the nation's security and stability. Hundreds of thousands of fliers, posters, banners and billboards have urged Egyptians to vote "yes." People have been arrested for posters and campaigns calling for a "no" vote. El-Sissi has yet to say directly whether he plans to seek the nation's presidency, but his candidacy appears likely. After voting in Cairo's upscale Zamalek district, a woman told AP that the new constitution isn't perfect : "But we need to move forward and we can fix it later." Long lines of voters began to form nearly two hours before polling stations opened in some Cairo districts, including Imbaba, where the courthouse blast promptly whipped up anti-Brotherhood sentiment with chants and shouting against the Islamist group. The mood was generally upbeat, hostile toward the Brotherhood and hopeful that the constitution would bring better days. In one women-only line in Cairo, voters sang the national anthem together as well as patriotic songs dating back to the 1960s. "El-Sissi is my president," they chanted as some jubilantly ululated in the fashion of Arab women. Another AP interview was with Manal Hussein, who comes from a village below the Giza Pyramids plateau west of Cairo. She wore a dress in the red, black and white colors of the national flag. Her daughter wore an Islamic veil in the same colors. "This vote brings to an end the era of the Brotherhood, who divided us and turned family members against each other," Hussein said. At a nearby polling station, a 67-year-old voter said that Egyptians have consigned Morsi and the Brotherhood's yearlong rule to the past. "To the world and to those who hate Egypt, we say we want to get Egypt back on its feet," he said. The Moslem Brotherhood is now officially a terrorist organization in Egypt and Morsi is standing trial for treason. The unprecedented security surrounding the vote follows months of violence blamed on islamic militants, including an assassination attempt on the interior minister and deadly attacks on key security officers, soldiers, policemen and provincial security and military intelligence headquarters. Morsi's supporters promised massive demonstrations and labeled the draft constitution a "constitution of blood," but protests in several parts of the country drew only several hundred supporters. Most Egyptian political parties support the new constitution - the Salafist Nour Party, the liberal Dustour Party, Wafd Party and Free Egyptians Party, and the Popular Current and Tamarod (Revolt) movements. But others - the Strong Egypt Party, 6 April Youth Movement (which led protests against Hosni Mubarak and Mohammed Morsi), Revolutionary Socialists movement, and No To Military Trials movement - are against articles that preserve some of the military's wide-ranging powers. Some groups say they cannot participate in a process set up by what they call the "coup authorities" - a reference to Morsi's ouster. The pro-Moslem Brotherhood National Alliance to Support Legitimacy (NASL) plans to boycott the referendum. NASL is a coalition of islamist parties who say they want to "protect the revolution" and "defend the legitimacy" of the Morsi constitution. As expected, most of Egypt's minority Coptic Christians, who make up about 10% of the population, have backed the removal of Morsi and the new constitution in hopes of winning religious freedoms. Nassif, a 70-year old Christian from Assuit, a stronghold of Islamists and home to a large Christian community south of Cairo said : "Anyone born and raised in Egypt will vote for this constitution." ~~~~~ And that, dear readers, sums up this odd but popular constitutional referendum. Despite the media doomsayers, we must remember, we who have become blaisé in the face of hundreds of years of uneventful elections, that all democracies begin in revolt, chaos, warring factions and an unpredictable transition period. Popularly supported self-government is a human right, but it is a right that must be won. And it does not come cheap. We can't expect perfection, but we can support Egypt's effort and the popular Egyptian military, which, despite its tough tactics, has kept Egypt out of the hands of islamic extremists and on track for constitutional self-rule. And in another good sign, Iraq will hold parliamentary elections in April. Shi'ite Arabs, Sunni Arabs and Kurds, the main Iraqi groups, will field slates : Shi'ite Arabs will be split between prime minister al-Maliki's faction and one other. The secular/sunni Iraqiya coalition will be split between former prime minister Allawi's faction and one other. Iraq's Independent High Electoral Commission approved 276 political entities to run in the elections. They will appear on the ballot as part of a "coalition" (kutla) and under the Iraq constitution, the head of the largest coalition has the first call to become prime minister. So, even in Iraq, tentative democratic tendencies are visible. Let's not despair just yet.