France's Mali and Lebanon Connection

Lebanon and Mali. Two countries with very different economc and political histories and levels of recognition by the world. So, why should Lebanon and Mali share the same blog. For several important reasons -- both are Muslim countries with substantial minorities (sunnis, shiites, Christians), both have a history of weak to non-existent governments, both are the crossroad for regional powers (Lebanon in the Syria-Iran effort to rule the Middle East and Mali in the always volatile West African Maghreb), both are rife with terrorist group activity, and perhaps most important, both are historically French in language, politics and cultural background. We can see this today in Mali as France, alone among western powers, is assuming an increasingly important role in Mali's northeast Sahel region. Unnamed sources in Paris say that France held secret talks with US officials in Paris on Monday, in a French effort to organize international military action to help Mali's weak government win back the northern part of the country from al-Qaida-linked rebels. France and the UN have stated that any invasion of Mali's north must be led by African troops. But France has six hostages in Mali and French citizens are reported to have joined al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), and therefore France must take an increasing role in Mali. Many in the West fear that northeast Mali and the Sahel srmi-desert could become the new Afghanistan, a no-man's-land where Islamists can train, impose charia law and plot terror attacks. The same unnamed Paris source said that France will withdraw two surveillance drones from Afghanistan by year's end and put them in northeast Mali. The long and continuing French leadership in the Maghreb and the large number of Maghrebi residing in France, make it impossible for the French government to ignore what is happening in Mali and the French have an additional incentive - to keep the AQIM and its terrorist activities from taking root in France itself, a result that is a legitimate concern in France and Europe. Look at a map of North Africa,dear readers, and you will see how easy it would be to place AQIM operatives on French soil in much the same way that illegal Maghreb immigrants flow into Italy by boat in the thousands every summer. ~~~~~ At the same time that France is beginning what could be a slippery slide into long term military engagement in Mali, it must be intently watching events in Lebanon, a country whose capital, Beirut, is often called the Paris of the Middle East. Because simmering just below the surface in Lebanon are the same forces that devastated the country during its 1975-1995 civil war, with sectarian anger still dividing Muslims and Christians, sunni and shiites, and secular and fundamentalist political groups. Outside forces are still in place, militias are still armed and the country is still on the verge of tearing itself apart. The Friday car bomb assassination of Lebanon's intelligence chief is threatening to destroy the fragile political balance in Lebanon, a country plagued by strife and dominated politically and militarily by Syria. Armed gangs roamed Beirut streets on Monday as the Lebanese military dismantled roadblocks and set up check points with armored personnel carriers and machine guns. But, this time, as in Mali, the uneasy local political balance is being disrupted by a power game being played by Syria and Iran and their al-Qaida allies to win the immense prize of domination in the Middle East. The pro-Syria shiite Hezbollah may be in the process of becoming Iran's most important ally in the Uranian push to destabilize and conquer the Middle East. But Syria is a crucial supply route. Without it, Hezbollah will struggle to get money and weapons. So, Lebanon is more important as an extension of Iran's logistics base and as a home for Hezbollah than as a player that could make a difference in the Syrian civil war. If the Lebanon agitation becomes a battleground for jihadist terrorists, France would be hard pressed not to intervene. This would stretch France militarily along a terrorist fault line stretching from the westetn Mediterranean shores facing France to the doors of Iran.