Wednesday, March 7, 2012

Super Tuesday Lessons

It came and went - Super Tuesday - and we are still asking, who is the Republican candidate going to be, finally.
Well, I for one, think what we learned on Super Tuesday is that none of the opponents snapping at the heels of Mitt Romney have the power to bring him down. He held off Rick Santorum in Ohio to bring in the one crucial state available last night for any GOP presidential hopeful. Romney's power in Ohio cities made him the winner over the conservative vote in the rural areas that went to Santorum. Romney will need to work hard to win in Ohio in November, but at least he can now say that he has already one victory there. And, Romney's Ohio win may give him a leg up on Santorum in his home state of Pennsylvania, right next door, where the demographics of the GOP are very similar.
For the rest of Super Tuesday's wins and losses, there were no surprises, with the possible exception on Tennessee, where Romney may have left chips on the table by not being there often enough. Georgia was always going to go for Gingrich, their long-time GOP national figure. That Romney took Alaska's caucuses may say something about the fading influence of Sarah Palin, who backed and voted for Gingrich in her home state, because the newly elected Senator, who is not a friend of Palin, supported Romney and brought him home a winner last night in Alaska.
For the rest of March, Mitt Romney has a lot of tough cards to play. The states holding primaries are mainly in the south and southwest, not favorable to his moderate views. But, these states cannot eliminate him either, because he's now too far ahead of Santorum and Gingrich and Paul in the convention delegate count to be overtaken in March.
I think the most important lesson from Super Tuesday's results may lie ahead. The race will be long and bitter, and the GOP conservatives are not going to accept Romney without a fight. But, finally, they will realize that he's going to get the nomination and grudgingly support him. The fallout from the bitter internal GOP struggle ahead and the lackluster support of the conservative wing of the GOP for Romney is that President Obama must now be considered the likely winner in November. Once more, the GOP is in the process of shooting itself in the foot instead of marching together to victory. Sad but true.
I am still wondering whether Donald Trump, Chris Christie, Jeb Bush and a few other GOP wise heads can save the day somehow. I would like to believe it is possible but my political instincts tell me that we are looking at 1964 all over again. The ideologues on the right will take defeat rather than accept the truth - politics is a game of compromise and give-and-take. No drastically right of center ideology can win, not even the 2012 variety.

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