Monday, March 19, 2012

The Illinois GOP Primary

On Tuesday, we will know if Mitt Romney won the Illinois primary, as current polling numbers are predicting. It would be a significant win, because Romney already has more than 500 delegate votes, almost half those he needs and more than double the combined delegate votes of his opponents.
In an unexplained move, Rick Santorum left Illinois today, abandoning the idea of campaigning on the last day in a critically important race for him - because Santorum needs Illinois, badly. His poorly organized operation will cost him some delegate votes, no matter what happens on election day, because his people didn't get him registered in some counties.
And now that he has pulled out of the Illinois campaign, it may be that Rick Santorum is having a reality moment. Has it finally sunk in that he will not ever gain the delegate vote count he needs to be nominated at the GOP Convention? Or, has he run out of serious money? Or have heavyweight GOP pols been on the phone to him, asking why he wants to reduce the GOP's chances in November, and perhaps suggesting that if he bows out now, he could still receive an important position in a Romney administration. Santorum isn't talking. So we don't know.
But, my bet is that both he and Newt Gingrich will bow out a some point after the next round of southern state primaries, that will include Louisiana. They may want to thank their workers by toughing it out in these states where they will do well. They may even think that a miracle might save their futures as candidates. but, deep down, they know that it's over. Mitt Romney is about to move into the more liberal end of the primary season, and his vote count will only increase while Santorum's and Gingrich's stagnates.
So, get out the Romney for President buttons. I think I hear Anne Romney saying "we've got lift-off."

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