Super Tuesday at Last

Dear readers, please forgive my absence, but I’ve had a bout of flu that left me incapable of thinking, let alone writing, for a few days. But, it’s gone and here is today’s offering.
Finally, we are on the eve of Super Tuesday, that long-awaited day when ten states will hold Republican primaries, and perhaps, at last, a real frontrunner will appear to take the GOP presidential nomination.
Everyone is focused on Ohio, with 66 convention delegates at stake. Rick Santorum was leading in Ohio, a blue collar and rural bastion of American conservatism, often voting for a Democrat, but whom Ronald Reagan brought into the GOP fold in 1980 as Reagan Democrats. In the last days, however, it seems that Mitt Romney is moving up on Santorum and has a chance to take Ohio. Romney’s win in Washington state this past weekend, when everyone thought Ron Paul would win, is evidence of his renewed strength as Republican voters consider who can actually beat President Obama in November.
Surprisingly, Georgia, with 76 convention delegates at stake, will be another very hot property tomorrow. It is Newt Gingrich’s home state so everyone is predicting a large in for him, a win that would save him from the otherwise almost sure end of his presidential ambitions.
The GOP has a way of awarding convention delegates that gives Georgia, with its population of 9.8 million, more convention delegates than Ohio, with a population of 11.5 million. The GOP awards delegates based on population, but then tosses in extra delegates for having elected a Republican governor, senator, and for having more than 50% of GOP congress members. Add to that total the delegates awarded for having a state legislature GOP majority, and those awarded for having carried the state for the GOP presidential candidate in the last presidential election.
So, there you have it…Georgia jumped through more GOP hoops than Ohio and so it has more GOP convention delegates to award in 2012’s Super Tuesday primary than does Ohio.
In addition, the Republican Party recently changed its rules so that most states were not allowed to hold their primaries before March 6. New Hampshire, Florida, South Carolina, Michigan and Arizona each lost half their delegates because they ignored this rule.
Tuesday's contests in Ohio, Massachusetts, Virginia, Georgia, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Vermont, North Dakota, Alaska and Idaho will award 437 delegates, almost 40 percent of the 1,144 needed for a candidate to win the nomination.
The delegate counts for each state on Super Tuesday:
Georgia: 76
Ohio: 66
Tennessee: 58
Virginia: 49
Oklahoma: 43
Massachusetts: 41
Idaho: 32
Wyoming: 29
Alaska: 27
Vermont: 17

So, Super Tuesday is well-named, because with 40% of the convention delegates at stake, if someone wins all or most of the delegates, the contest would be almost over.
But, that is not likely to happen. More reasonably, I expect Romney to take about 275 of the delegates, Santorum 100, and the rest divided between Gingrich and Paul. But, stay tuned, because the GOP race is about to get really interesting.