Wednesday, February 8, 2012

What Did Romney Learn Last Night?

Well...Rick Santorum, the man without a campaign office, except for a post office box, and very little money, has won three "beauty contest" primaries, if we accept their characterization by Romney's PR guru. A beauty contest in this case is a primary in which no GOP convention delegates were officially won. So, it is as if last night's caucuses and elections in Minnesota, Missouri and Colorado were never held. That's a lot of money for no result, I'd say.
But, the trick here is that Santorum didn't spend much money - so, in a sense, he got what he paid for - Nothing.
Colorado, however did award delegates last night and they were distributed pro rata to the candidates, with Santorum getting 40% and Romney 35% to match their vote counts. This was the best result for frontrunner Romney last night. In Minnesota, some delegates were awarded, and Romney placed 3rd with 17% of the votes, behind Santorum with 45% and Paul with 27%. In Missouri, Santorum got 55% of the vote to Romney's 25% and Paul's 12%.
On the other hand, neither Romney nor Paul nor Gingrich spent much money in any of these states.
Gingrich, who came in last or tied for last in all the races, barely showed up in any of the 3 states, saying he was taking the night off. He didn't even make his usual "non-acceptance" speech afterward in order to castigate the other contenders. So, at least last night we won in one way - we didn't have to sit through a Newt tirade.
As for Paul, he was second in Minnesota, so his barnstorming campaign style paid off yesterday. He says he is happy as long as he is collecting delegates, and last night's second place will yield delegates when the Minnesota GOPers caucus and award them.
Romney? His campaign spent little on mass media TV ads, because Minnesota, Missouri and Colorado don't lend themselves to this strategy. He was present, but had trouble convincing the conservative GOP voters in the 3 states that he is really the conservative they're looking for. He lost and it is at least a big bruise to his campaign staff's ego. But I doubt Romney or his staff were really surprised by the outcomes, because they had already on Monday started to put out signals that he was not going to win. 
So, what happened? 
Romney ended the night with 115 delegates, compared to 38 for Gingrich, 34 for Santorum, and 20 for Paul, according to CNN's count.
The seriously religious and socially conservative Republicans of the Middle West got their day in court. They sent the message, loud and clear, that they want a conservative GOP standard bearer this Fall. They also offered a look at the future because in 17 days, the GOPers in Super Tuesday primaries, mostly in the conservative GOP South, will give their opinion on the subject. And, before Super Tuesday, the Maine caucuses will be held - this coming Saturday. Only Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich have spent much time in Maine, but most analysts think Romney will win because of his New England base.
John McCain gave an interesting view of yesterday's results to CNN reporter John King:

"I think this really was very small numbers of people that turned out and I respect their views, but I don't believe they are representative of the broad majority of Republican voters,...I really believe that when you have 1% of the registered voters turning out that that's not a very good indicator."
There is one matter that is worrisome and it is not Romney's losses. It is his continuing effort to be more conservative in order to collect GOP primary votes. He is a natural moderate conservative Republican, and that is what makes him the greatest danger to Obama in November because it will attract independents to him. His position on the economy and the national debt and budget is far more important than where he stands on birth control or abortion and, in fact, moving too far right on these issues will cost him the female vote he garnered in Florida, as well as the independent vote and conservative Democrat vote that helped form the Reagan coalition. Romney's positioning vis-à-vis abortion and birth control are not wise. He should stick to his values here and let the chips fall, because after Super Tuesday's elections, the rest of the GOP in half the states will get its chance, and here Romney's moderately conservative views will serve him well.



1 comment:

  1. I'm moderately conservative and I'd like to elect someone who is moderately conservative because I am not voting for someone who is excessively conservative nor minimally conservative just moderately conservative.

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