Thursday, February 9, 2012

Poor Greece, Again

The Greek government seems to have put together a deal with the banks that hold its debt, but the rest of the austerity program demanded by the European Union, if Greece is to receive the 170 Billion Euros it needs to continue to pay its current bills, is far from settled. The EU says it wants a firm plan in place before it deploys the money.
The Greek people, when asked about more austerity, especially workers and unions, say that another 22% cut in their pay checks is too much. There will be a national union strike tomorrow to make the point.
There really isn't much here that's different from what we've witnessed in the past year, except that this time, the deadline is inching closer than in the past, the unpaid bills are piling up, and the Greek people have been so devastated by the austerity programs already in place that they may be reaching a red line situation.
In addition, European and international financial analysts, and the German financial community, say that even if the banks take the 70% reduction as re-payment of the loans they made to the Greek government, it will not solve Greece's infrastructure problems. I heard analysts today saying that even a 100% reduction - that is, forgiving the Greek debt completely - would not solve Greece's problems.
And, what continues to be stupifying is that the infrastructure problem is being made worse by the very austerity programs that the EU is demanding. It is a cycle of lower wages, fewer jobs, less taxes collected because of lower wages and fewer jobs, and finally, with few jobs and no government tax money to use, the Greek economy is grinding to a halt...there is no recovery in sight and there are no austerity programs that will help.
Further, what the EU seems to want is for Greece to pull itself up by dying and coming back from the dead. Germany and other large EU countries do not want to invest their citizens' money in Greece except as loans, but without large investment, the Greek economy, never very modern or strong, will simply wither and die.
That is why experts are still saying, even if the EU is not listening, that the best road forward for Greece is to default, leave the Eurozone, go back to its Drachma (or a local less valuable Euro used only in Greece) and try to get on with its life as it did in the past, when there were no defaults, no banks being asked to forgive debt and no unusually higher than normal unemployment. That was because Greece controlled its own currency and could adjust its value to suit its needs for capital and its domestic and foreign marketplaces. It is not possible with the centrally controlled Euro.
So, we are no closer to a real solution for Greece's problem than we have ever been. But, sometimes it takes bureaucrats and politicians a lot longer than the rest of us to understand these truths.    

1 comment: