The Syrian Dilemma

Syria is an open sore that needs attention. The question is - what to do??

We are seeing daily images of Syrian military and police attacking demonstrators, using tanks to over-run them, and lately going from door to door in search of opposition leaders and weapons.

It must be clear, even to usually slow-reacting political leaders, that the Syrian regime and its leader, Bashar Al-Assad, have no intention of easing up on their attacks on the demonstrators. They have no intention of beginning a dialogue with them or softening their repressive grip on the country.

Syria is an important stop along the march that began in Tunisia. It must be expected that either the Syrian regime will finally agree to accommodate its dissenters, as was the case in Egypt, or it will fight to the death, as is now the case in Libya.

But, Syria is not Egypt, which had at least a patina of freedom prior to being confronted by its citizens, or Libya, which was and is terrorized by a madman.

Syria is in many ways the key to the Middle East. It supports Hamas and Hezbollah terrorism, but keeps them under control by providing their financing. It consorts with Iran, but does not submit to Iranian hegemony. It detests Israel but usually does not attack it.

If Syria falls, the world would like to be sure that its replacement government will be no worse.

There is the dilemma. While the West and its Gulf partners would certainly like to see democratic reform in Syria, they would also like the reformers to maintain at least the regional status quo - democracy without anti-Semitism or an enlarged role for Iran in the Middle East.

In this respect, Syria is very much like Bahrain drawn large. It is difficult for the West to intervene in Syria for the same reasons it hesitates to intervene in Bahrain. So, we are leaving Bahrain to Saudi Arabia, which has historically supported its minority Sunni royal family.

The problem in Syria is that it is the client state of no one, if not Iran, and leaving Syria’s future in the hands of Iran would spell disaster for the region, and perhaps for the world.