Osama bin Laden's Last Tape

An American official who spoke on condition of anonymity, has said that the last tape made by Osama bin Laden several days before his death raises some questions.

The tape apparently supports the Arab Spring revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt but doesn’t mention any of the others. The official said this seems strange to US analysts, especially since bin Laden detested Colonel Qadhaffi but seemed not to support, or at least not to care about, his overthrow.

In addition, it seems odd that bin Laden would support any Arab Spring uprising at all, given that these popular and spontaneous revolutions against Arab tyranny would surely cut into the power of Al-Qaida to rally young Arabs to its cause of terror and violence. And, if the Arab Spring succeeds in Syria, Al-Qaida would lose an important partner in its effort to replace current Arab despots with even worse ones loyal to Al-Qaida.

US Secretary of defense Robert Gate said as much recently when he was quoted as saying, “It [the Arab Spring] basically gives the lie to Al-Qaida's claim that the only way to get rid of authoritarian governments is through extremist violence.”

The tape may also support another idea that many analysts have offered - that bin Laden was not interested in small, local terrorist acts, like those of the Al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), whose acts are regional and aimed at bombing any available local target, or kidnapping small groups or individuals held for ransom.  

That bin Laden did not mention AQIM, together with the fact that he often wrote to his circle of Al-Qaida leaders to always target Americans and in large numbers, may be the signal that Osama was growing out of touch with the regional groups he spawned.

This inevitably raises the question of his successor. Will it be someone like him who hates America, or will it be someone who can pull together the regional groups to fund and carry out terrorist acts wherever and whenever possible, in America or elsewhere.