The Arab Spring Is Working , but It Will Take Time

The Arab Spring is changing the Middle East and North Africa. No one can doubt it. But, perhaps the hourly TV images and reporting has led us to believe that the whole process would take a couple of months. Sadly, and realistically, it isn’t so.

Let’s make an accounting.

Tunisia - started off swiftly. Ben Ali left in a matter of days, and the democratic revolution was in full swing. But, last week, the interim government announced a postponement of elections originally scheduled for July. The reason? Too many street fights between the democrats and fundamentalists, who want to seize the process and take over the presidency. Is it better to wait and get a better result? Probably, but hopes of a quick conversion to democracy have suffered a blow.

Egypt -  started off with little violence, after the first shock troop tactics by the army, which quickly joined the freedom fighters. But lately, there have been signs of tightening military control, with renewed demonstrations against any army takeover. The good news? The new constitution was approved in a referendum and Anwar Sadat has been detained for investigation, albeit in a hospital instead of a prison, where his two sons are now in residence. Egypt will be all right, but its democrats need international support and encouragement.

Libya - the most-televised popular uprising in history. Qadhaffi will finally lose, because the international community has put its name on the line, but after how many lives have been lost? No one knows.

Yemen - protests against the president continue, but so does the push back from loyal security forces, resulting in many deaths. The Yemeni president may think that he is protected by America, because of her interest in eliminating the Yemeni arm of Al-Qaida. Needed : a clearer voice of America telling President Saleh to find a way to exit and give democracy a chance.

Bahrain - nothing here is easy. Saudi forces have crushed the Shiite majority and are now helping the Bahraini security forces to round up and jail anyone who looks like a demonstrator. Needed : difficult to say. Change will come to the Arabian peninsula, but not until the Saudi Arabian king realizes that to secure peace it will take more than paying money to its citizens and backing up the payments with troops.

Syria - Libya II, but without an international component. Yet. Follow the comments of Hillary Clinton to understand that America is gearing up to take a stand against President al-Assad’s unending brutality, and America will bring the rest of the world with her. When? Stay tuned.