Friday, November 26, 2010

The Two Koreas

As if the North Korean bombing of a South Korean island, complete with civilian and military casualties, weren't enough, we now have the United States and South Korea preparing to engage in war games near the North Korean coast, if journalists are accurate in their reporting. And, China is calling for everyone to calm down and get back to the table - which table, I'm not sure. But, if it's the six-party table, the US says now is not the time.
In a sense, the United States is right. Now is not the time. The time was long ago, when, in 1953, General MacArthur told President Truman he could take over the North Korean territory. The President blinked, fired MacArthur, and the rest of the story is well-known. The 17th parallel has become one of the most tightly controlled borders in the world.
The United States is treaty-bound to defend South Korea in the event of an attack by the North. War games are not defense, they are muscle-flexing, to a lesser degree than the flexing the North did when it launched rockets at the South. What good does it do? Not much, unless the South Koreans are sleeping better at night, something I doubt.
And, why is China being so diplomatic? Because it is the only "friend" North Korea has, and because it has a political system that, while more modern, closely resembles the terrorist family affair that is North Korean politics. Perhaps China knows that the North will not advance toward the South. Perhaps China knows that the US will not attack the North, no matter what it does. Perhaps, like all of us except the North Korean dictators, China knows that this will all end with a UN Security Council meeting and a few speeches. Everyone will then go home and the North Koreans will have learned that their irrational activities have just won them a little more space and time in which to plan the next step in their mindless search for legitimacy.
But, at the bottom of all this, the lonely voice of Douglas MacArthur rings loud and true. He was right to want to stop the North while it still could be stopped. We could add to his voice that of General Patton when he was fired for wanting to stop the Soviets from taking over Berlin. We could also add the voice of General Schwartzeneger, who wanted to end the Iraqi regime in 1991-2. 
What do generals know? That politicians do not have the will power, unless they are backed up against the final wall, to deal with "rogue" nations. Politicians talk and lament and threaten and meet. They do not, for the most part, act. Generals act.
Firing a few rockets may not seem the stuff to launch a war, but what if those rockets had carried nuclear warheads. What if today, instead of lamenting and meeting, we had a nuclear attack and its casualties on our hands.
And, lest we forget, the same drama is playing out in Iran. They will dodge and parry until their nuclear weapon capacity is ready. Then, who will respond when Israel is bombed with nuclear weapons? Not the Security Council, not China, not Russia who has made the nuclear arming of Iran possible, and not most of the rest of the world.
If President Obama is serious about protecting everyone and making the world safer, he ought to concentrate on the present nuclear capacity of North Korea and the potential nuclear capacity of Iran. That would do a lot more for the world than all the current dithering while the rogues build their nuclear arsenals.

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