Friday, November 19, 2010

Finding a Thread

It's one of those days when everything I hear or see about the world points to a dangerous jumble.
President Obama arrives in Lisbon for the NATO meeting, with the top agenda item seeming to be whether 2014 is the year when Afghanistan can start looking out for itself. European leaders hope so, because their citizens are increasingly unhappy about any European military role in Afghanistan except for training missions. Americans are not far behind when it comes to dissatisfaction about our military presence in the country. Many Americans would like to see us pull out as soon as it can be done with some semblance of control and "mission accomplished" aura.
Then, there is yesterday's not very veiled threat made to France, whose five citizen-hostages have been in the hands of the North African El-Qaida group for several months now. The terrorists have told France that it will have to negotiate directly with Osama bin Ladin in order to gain the release of their citizens - that is, after France pulls all its troops out of Afghanistan. The newly appointed French Foreign Minister has predictably responded that no foreign elements will dictate French policy.
The backdrop to all these unsettling military situations is the confusion and near-panic in Europe over the Irish bank debt problem that threatens to sink the European bond market if a solution is not found soon. The Euro itself is holding up rather well in the face of all this, and the European Central Bank Chairman has said that Ireland will be saved and the European bond market will be fine.
The problem is that Ireland is reluctant to be "saved" because it means giving up a large chunk of its sovereignty to the European Central Bank and Germany, who will undoubtedly be the ultimate insurer of the Irish bank debt. Other European financial ministers are also not happy with Germany's insisting that some semblance of fiscal order and austerity be accepted by Ireland and the rest of Euorpe that is still in a financial black hole caused by the 2008 worldwide financial crisis. America, again, is not far behind, with Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke having to go to Congress yesterday to explain why his QE2 approach of throwing money at the black hole is the only way to fill it. German Chancellor Merkel is not any more pleased with Mr. Bernanke's approach than she and Germany are with the European debtor nations.
So, there we are. The entire world is in Afghanistan while most of the world's citizens believe the country is an unsolvable political black hole and wish Afghanistan would just step up and take responsibility for itself.
The entire world is still in the grip of a financial crisis not seen since the 1930s and most world citizens are afraid that it may still drag all of us into a financial black hole. 
Oh yes, one entity seems to be stepping out of its personal black hole - GM. Is there room for hope there? We'll soon find out. 

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