Tuesday, January 4, 2011

Punjab Governor Killed

Punjab Governor Taseer has been shot and killed by one of his bodyguards. Taseer was one of the most powerful of Pakistan's governors and his death will create political backlashes for the government.
Why was he shot?  The BBC reporters breaking the story say he was one of the few Pakistani politicians who stood up publicly in support of the Christian woman who has been sentenced to death for blasphemy.
Taseer said such laws have no place in the 21st century. The result? He was assasinated. The man who shot and killed him will apparently be hanged automatically under Pakistani law.
The wild west nature of the murder reminds me of another woman. She is Sakinah, the woman sentenced to be stoned to death in Iran for adultery. She has been tortured according to Iranian sources, after which she confessed to various parts of the government's charges, and later threatened to bring lawsuits against German reporters who had mentioned the possibility of torture. She awaits her fate in an Iranian prison while the Iranian "justice" system tries to decide what to do in light of the large international reaction.
Then, we have the Copts of Egypt, who were killed by a terrorist bomb in Alexandria while they were celebrating Christmas mass. They have since rioted in defense of their right to practice their religion. Egyptian Muslims have supported the Copts, but not the rioting.
All of these affairs have been attributed either to Al Qaida and the Taliban, or to Islamic law and custom.
And yet, as to Islamic law and custom, there are Muslim voices who protest and try to be advocates for change. But, Governor Taseer's violent death reminds us just how dangerous such a position can be for Muslims.
I do not believe that Islam is violent. But, it is hard to see the way forward in the near term. What can we of other faiths or customs do to help our brothers and sisters in Islam take control of their lives and their religious practices? Very little. It must come from them. Until the followers of Islam decide for themselves that enough is enough, we will have to watch act after act of vengeance and violence, against women, journalists, Christians, and anyone else daring to be the outsider in the political regimes in which intolerance and terror in the name of religion are used as a means of gaining and maintaining secular power.
What a sad beginning to 2011.

Monday, January 3, 2011

China and Spain

China's vice premier announced, just before his trip to Spain later this week, that China has confidence in the Spanish government's handling of its economy and will continue to invest in Spain's government bonds.
This is in contrast to the international financial community, which has repeatedly predicted that Spain will eventually need the kind of bailout that the European Union has already offered to Greece and Ireland.
China's determination to invest in Spain raises some interesting questions.
Is China willing to roll the dice on Spain because it is seeking a relatively inexpensive entry point into the Eurozone decision-making process? If this is the case, China must believe that the Euro is going to survive in some form and will be useful as a "weapon" in its ongoing battle with Washington concerning the relative value of the Chinese vs American currencies. Being able to influence European Central Bank decisions about where and how to support the Euro could be an indirect way for China to try to select the yen-USDollar relationship in China's favor.
Or, is China simply looking for another trading partner of a size to be competitive with the longstanding China-America trade partnership. If this is so, China could be in for a surprise as it more fully understands that Germany is the key to European export trade (and China already has a good trading relationship with Germany). There is probably some room for increasing the China-Europe trade but not of a magnitude that would replace the American purchase of Chinese goods.
Perhaps China is looking for the thing it lacks and most needs - agricultural land. Spain is a perfect partner for some types of agriculture but does not have the climate or water necessary for grain, rice or cotton production. Does China want beef? The meats most consumed in China are pork and chicken. So, I cannot believe that at bottom, China sees Spain in the same light as Brazil, where it is steadily increasing its agricultural interests.
Surely, China does not want Europe per se. China is not an aggressive territorial expander. But, one is tempted to think that China could be positioning itself long term in expectation of the eventuality that Europe weakens to the point that it will need a knight on horseback to save it from being picked apart economically or territorially.
Maybe China just likes flamenco and bull fights, but I doubt it.

Sunday, January 2, 2011

Obama's Decision to Govern by Regulation

With the 112th Congress about to take its seats, we are going to see quite a show, one not seen since 1995 when President Clinton and the Republican Congress locked horns over the direction America should take.
 In 1995, it all ended with a debt ceiling and budget stalemate that left the country without money to function while the opponents fought it out.
This time, it appears that President Obama will take another approach. Government by Regulation. Instead of hitting the moderate-conservative wall in Congress, he will ask his federal departments to issue regulations to cover the items he will not be able to get through Congress.
So, if you thought that voting for tea partiers and conservative Republicans would put a stop to the hi-jacking of America by Obama’s leftist goal of re-making the USA into a nation modelled on European socialism, think again.
Watch these areas and be prepared to act : energy, health care, the environment.
Medicare has recently and quietly issued a regulation calling for “end of life counselling” during annual welfare visits. The death squads that Sarah Palin warned about while being ridiculed, now exist under an executive department regulation. The new Congress can do something about this, but they need to be pushed by letters, e-mails and phone calls. Don’t let this reversal of the defeat of death squads in the original Obamacare legislation go by unnoticed.
Watch the Environmental Protection Agency. It has just passed regulations making some wilderness areas off-limits for oil drilling. It’s another Democratic-Obama bill that died in Congress because of America’s desperate need to use its own petroleum resources,  but is alive through administrative action. The EPA is also working on cap-and-trade regulations. Congress balked, so Obama has directed his EPA Secretary to carry on as if nothing ever happened in Congress.
Sound as if a pattern is emerging??
Don’t be fooled by the President’s December show of bipartisanship. He needs the center to win re-election and he will play us all for fools in public while in private he pushes on with his leftist program.
Pay attention. Get your message out to your Representative in Congress and your Senators as soon as you see something that’s out of line with the country’s November mandate to Mr. Obama.
Democracy is not a gift. It is earned every single day.

Saturday, January 1, 2011

The Year 2011

As we celebrate the end of 2010 and the beginning of 2011, I can't help but wonder which of today's problems will still be with us at the beginning of 2012. Here are my thoughts.

Ivory Coast - the problem will not have been satisfactorily resolved; sporadic fighting will still be seen in the streets of Ivory Coast as various would-be "leaders" and "saviors" try to assert their positions; the people of Ivory Coast will struggle; many will have fled the country, becoming refugees to be fed and sheltered by the international community, which caused the problem in large part by ordering instead of negotiating.

Khodorkovsky - as the Russian presidential election approaches, his legal battles will continue and he will still be unjustly imprisoned; perhaps 2012 will find him liberated if he chooses to leave Russia as the condition; he will refuse.

Afghanistan - the allies of America will continue to wind down their efforts; America will try to withdraw, making the most of its "accomplishments" but the Taliban and Al Qaida will be stronger and more entrenched than they are today; and American troops will openly take up positions in Pakistan to try to prevent its nuclear capability form falling into Al Qaida and Taliban hands.

Iran - will announce the pending test of its first nuclear warhead, which will deliver a big message; the international community will continue to posture but will still have no solution to Iran's political situation.

Palestine - Israel will put its armed forces on a war footing and more serious skirmishes with Hezbollah and Hamas will occur; this will force Palestine will make some sort of separate arrangement with Israel and Palestine itself, coming under overt attack by the two groups, will be defended by Israel. 

North Korea - will return to the bargaining table and an agreement will be reached, under which the two Koreas will once more try to live in peace.

The World Economy - sovereign debt issues will continue and become the main economic rock around the world's neck; one or two other Eurozone countries will join Greece and Ireland in defaulting and German voters will be louder in protesting the lead role of Germany in saving the Eurozone; we will see the beginning of the effort to solve the Eurozone crisis by splitting the Euro into two de facto currencies - this will be covered over by talk about two Eurozones whose economic needs are different.

Happy New Year, and may most of my predictions be wrong !!