Tuesday Is Election Day in Israel

TUESDAY IS ELECTION DAY IN ISRAEL. And, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's, and very possibly Israel's, political future is riding on the results. • • • PRESIDENT TRUMP SAYS IT WILL BE CLOSE. Israel Hayom, a left-leaning Israeli media outlet whose parent company's principal shareholder is the Adelson family, reported on the President's remarks, made at the annual meeting of the Republican Jewish Coalition in Las Vegas. President Trump said the election will be close and also warned that a Democrat victory in 2020 could "leave Israel out there." • Israel Hayom and the Associated Press wrote on Sunday : "Speaking at the annual meeting of the Republican Jewish Coalition, Trump touted his precedent-shredding actions to move the US Embassy to Jerusalem from Tel Aviv and recognition last month of Israeli sovereignty over the disputed Golan Heights, a strategic plateau that Israel seized from Syria in 1967." Leftist media are the same worldwide, with a political position that does not bend for mere facts, such as the historical possession of the Golan Heights, as we discussed last week in a blog. Bur, Israel Hayom did report that President Trump told the Republican Jewish Coalition audience : "We got you something that you wanted” [the embassy move], adding, “Unlike other Presidents, I keep my promises.” The group, backed by GOP donor Sheldon Adelson, supported Trump’s 2016 campaign and is preparing to spend millions on his 2020 effort. The President recognized this : "I know that the Republican Jewish Coalition will help lead our party to another historic victory. We need more Republicans. Let’s go, so we can win everything.” • Israel Hayom said American Jewish voters have traditionally sided heavily with Democrats -- "and are often ideologically liberal" -- but Republicans "are hoping to narrow the gap next year, in part as Trump cites actions that he says demonstrate support for Israel." • The Jewish Democratic Council of America disagrees. It said on Saturday, according to Israel Hayom : "American Jews leaving the Democratic Party are a Republican fantasy. Trump’s presidency has only solidified the fact that the Democratic Party has been, and will remain, the political home of the American Jewish electorate,” JDCA Executive Director Halie Soifer said in a statement. “This is because Trump’s policies and rhetoric are antithetical to Jewish values and because anti-Semitism has increased to unprecedented levels due to Trump’s divisive words, policies, and willful blindness.” The Jewish Democratic Council of America (JDCA), which defines itself as "the voice for Jewish Democrats and the socially liberal, pro-Israel values," was announced in August 2017 and officially launched in November 2017. JDCA was incorporated in Washington, DC, in June 2017. The JDC endorsed 58 candidates including, Michigan’s Haley Stevens, Dianne Feinstein, and Max Rose, and invested more than six-figures in the 2018 midterm elections. They applauded Democrats on their "historic and monumental election win." • BUT, at the Republican Jewish Coalition, President Trump received standing ovations for mentioning the embassy move and the Golan Heights recognition. Before President Trump’s appearance, Israel Hayom reported that people assembled for the event carried signs with “We are Jews for Trump” and “Trump” written in Hebrew. Dozens of men and several women wore red yarmulkes with “Trump” in white that were distributed at the event. The President also noted that he has eliminated hundreds of millions of dollars in aid to the Palestinians and has pulling the US out of several UN organizations -- the UN Human Rights Council and UNESCO -- citing anti-Israel bias in their agendas. President Trump also criticized some 2020 Democrats who have suggested they would re-enter the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, from which Trump withdrew the United States. Israel Hayom said : "The agreement was fiercely opposed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has cheered as Trump reimposed stringent new sanctions on the country that Israel regards as an existential threat. Trump is aligned with Netanayu, who’s seeking to re-election in Tuesday’s national election. Trump predicted that the election is 'gonna be close,' adding it features 'two good people,' seemingly referring to Netanyahu and his chief threat, former IDF Chief of Staff Benny Gantz....Stuart Weil, a Jewish man from Fresno, California, said Americans have traditionally been very supportive of Israel but 'the progressive, liberal wing of the Democratic Party' is changing that. Weil, who wore a blue Trump-style hat that read, 'Making Israel & America Great Again,' says he’s a Republican because of the party’s strong stance on Israel." • However, President Trump still has a lot of work to do with US Jewish voters. Israel Hayom reported : "According to AP Votecast, a survey of more than 115,000 midterm voters and 3,500 Jewish voters nationwide, voters who identified as Jewish broke for Democrats over Republicans by a wide margin, 72% to 26%, in 2018. Over the past decade, Jewish voters have shown stability in their partisanship, according to data from Pew Research Center. Jewish voters identify with or lean toward the Democratic Party over the Republican Party by a roughly 2-1 ratio." • • • THE WASHINGTON INSTITUTE ANALYZES THE ISRAELI ELECTION. The Washington Institute scholars and visiting experts specialize in the Middle East and Israeli affairs. Here is what a panel of TWI political observers havez to say about each campaign and what a victory by either side might mean for Israeli policy. The panelists -- Ehud Yaari, Tal Shalev, and David Makovsky -- addressed a Policy Forum at The Washington Institute last Thursday. Yaari is the Institute’s Lafer International Fellow and an award-winning commentator for Israeli television. Shalev is the chief political correspondent for the Israeli web portal Walla News. Makovsky is the Institute’s Ziegler Distinguished Fellow and director of its Project on Arab-Israel Relations. The following is a summary of their remarks provided by notetaker Basia Rosenbaum at the Forum. (1) EHUD YAARI : "Israel’s April 9 elections are about one thing : a referendum on the leadership of Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, whose weaknesses have become the main strength of his opponent, former military chief of staff Benny Gantz. Rather than presenting a detailed platform of its own, Gantz’s Blue and White Party is running largely on the disgust that many voters feel for the prime minister. Netanyahu’s presumed intention is to see what happens after the elections and, if tasked with forming the next government, try to enact pending legislation (the so-called “French Law”) that would give him immunity from prosecution on a looming corruption indictment. Alternatively, he could seek a plea bargain. To remain prime minister, Netanyahu does not need his Likud Party to win the most votes. More important are the half a dozen right-wing parties teetering near 3.25% of the national vote, the threshold required to enter parliament. If they fall short of that mark, the prime minister’s planned coalition could lose hundreds of thousands of votes. The direction of major Israeli foreign policy issues is not at stake in these elections. Rather, the outcome will determine whether right-wingers can fulfill their intention to reverse the judicial revolution that has recast courts as a check on parliament, a movement instigated by former Supreme Court justice Aharon Barak. The best outcome may be a grand coalition that includes Netanyahu and Gantz, but it is unclear whether Blue and White would be willing to join. Such an alliance would allow more initiative on the Palestinian issue. Netanyahu himself advocated for this result before the pending indictment was announced in February. If a narrow right-wing government emerges instead, Israel will drift further toward a nationalistic approach, including limits on judicial power and unilateral moves in the West Bank and East Jerusalem. For Blue and White to prevail, the party would need to woo at least some right-wing Jewish voters and moderate Arab factions. Much uncertainty persists, with polls indicating that as many as 35% of Israelis still do not know how they will vote." (2) TAL SHALEV : "This election has featured two important developments : the creation of Blue and White and the preliminary indictment against Netanyahu. Neither development appears to have significantly hurt Netanyahu’s chances of winning, however. Gantz’s transformation into a top candidate in three months is impressive, as is his formation of an all-star security team capable of undermining one of Netanyahu’s key strengths. More than any other opponent in recent years, the general has gotten close to being deemed just as 'suitable' for the office of prime minister as Netanyahu. Yet the vast majority of Blue and White voters are from the center-left; few have been pulled from the right. As for the indictment, Netanyahu’s base seems willing to forgive. He has also been strengthened since the previous elections by President Trump’s actions....Many people -- even those who do not support the prime minister -- believe Netanyahu is in a different league from Gantz in terms of cultivating such close relationships with world leaders. Leading up to election day, Netanyahu has been running a vicious but brilliant campaign. Early on, Blue and White stumbled for a couple weeks as its campaign team learned how to work together. The party has since emphasized the need to garner the largest share of the vote and convince left-wing Israelis to choose a centrist government instead of casting ballots for leftist parties. Yet this strategy will be fruitless unless Blue and White can cobble together a bloc with enough seats to form the next government. Party leaders believe that if they defeat Netanyahu’s Likud by more than five seats, then aftershocks will ensue, since it would be the first time in a decade that such a gap has opened. The prime minister therefore has to be careful, closing this gap without wasting votes from smaller right-wing parties poised on the 3.25% threshold. Key things to watch for immediately after the election include the results for Moshe Feiglin, a former Likud member who has become a Netanyahu enemy and has run on a platform of legalizing marijuana, pursuing a harsh libertarian agenda, and rebuilding a temple in a Jerusalem location where mosques now stand. If Netanyahu wins, he will do everything he can to keep Feiglin out of his coalition. The Netanyahu camp is also concerned about President Reuven Rivlin, who is responsible for choosing which candidate gets to form the government after the elections. Usually, this decision is based on which candidate is most capable of assembling a majority coalition, but Rivlin can use a different metric if he so desires." (3) DAVID MAKOVSKY : "The main subtext of these elections is that not many people are moving between the right and left blocs, with the exception of Feiglin. Thus, the large number of undecided voters may not be very significant if these individuals hail from within a given bloc rather than the narrow margin between the right and center. The right/left divide in Israel has transitioned to a right/center divide since the second intifada. In 1992, the two main left-wing parties, Labor and Meretz, won 56 seats, but polls indicate they will win only 18-19 this year. In contrast, the lowest tally for the center-left in recent years was 53 seats, and Blue and White is currently projected to win 58. At the same time, this means that even after forming an all-star team and watching the attorney-general announce a preliminary indictment against Netanyahu, the party has only managed to boost the center-left by five seats. Meanwhile, Netanyahu has refashioned the Likud and eliminated its more liberal elements. Taking advantage of demography and the declining number of secular Israelis, he has broadened Likud’s base by casting it as a coalition of outsiders. Specifically, he has fostered antagonism toward the old elite, particularly the courts; criticized those who sympathize with Arabs; delinked the Palestinian issue from collaboration with other regional states; and permitted West Bank construction outside the settlement blocs. He also has the power of incumbency on his side, along with his proven ability to attract support from powerful foreign leaders such as Trump and Vladimir Putin. In contrast, the center believes that Israel must take steps to preserve the possibility of peace with the Palestinians even if negotiations are impossible at the moment. This includes prohibiting further settlements outside the West Bank security barrier. On that note, the Trump peace plan has a very steep hill to climb regardless of who wins the elections. Even if Gantz prevails, he is unlikely to back any plan that the Palestinians can easily reject, and he will presumably request consultations on the plan’s contents before it is released. If Netanyahu wins, the pending indictment process and the composition of his presumed coalition will make him beholden to the right. Accordingly, if Washington presents its peace plan and Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas immediately rejects it, Netanyahu might push for selective annexations in the West Bank [Netanyahu has since announced that he will annex West Bank Settlements if elected]....The Trump administration could go either way on peace diplomacy. If the President feels his plan is doomed to fail, he will likely stop it from being released. Alternatively, he may decide that releasing it is the best way to help create political space for a grand coalition in Israel. This summary was prepared by Basia Rosenbaum. • • • NETANYAHU AND THE SETTLEMENTS. On Monday, the left-leaning Israeli media outlet Israel Hayom reported on its interview with Prime Minister Netanyahu on Sunday. It represents Netanyahu's last words before Israelis go to the polls. • Israel Hayom wrote : "In an exclusive interview for i24NEWS-Israel Hayom’s joint election special less than 48 hours before Israelis begin casting ballots, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed not to forcefully uproot a single Israeli settler from the West Bank, a move he said would be tantamount to 'ethnic cleansing.' Netanyahu reiterated his vow that if re-elected, he would extend Israel’s sovereignty to settlements in the West Bank, but clarified he has no intention of annexing the West Bank in its entirety : 'I did not say I would annex the West Bank, I said I would apply Israeli law to Jewish communities in Judea and Samaria,' Netanyahu affirmed....Netanyahu has repeatedly rejected relinquishing Israeli military control over territory west of the Jordan River. Israel maintains full security and administrative control over the West Bank’s 'Area C,' which comprises some 60% of the territory. The prime minister’s remarks were criticized domestically as a ploy to appeal to pro-settlement right-wing voters, and internationally as a threat to the two-state solution. Many of Netanyahu’s right-wing political rivals openly call for the annexation of Area C, where most major Israeli settlement blocs are concentrated, while others call for the application of Israeli sovereignty over the entire West Bank where some 430,000 Israeli settlers live among 2.6 million Palestinians." • PM Netanyahu also talked with Israel Hayom about Gaza : "Defending his policy in the Gaza Strip, which has come under stark criticism by his political rivals, Netanyahu said that the trio of former generals heading up the main rival Blue and White party -- Benny Gantz, Moshe Ya’alon and Gabi Ashkenazi 'did not suggest anything different. They have not realized that the main lesson of Gaza is not to repeat it in Judea and Samaria,' Netanyahu said, appearing to champion his own ability to respond in a 'measured way.' He noted that over the last four and a half years, 'not a single Israeli was killed. I do not wish recreate a ‘Hamastan’ that is twenty times the size,' he said, referring to the 2005 Israeli disengagement from the coastal enclave which, following a rift with Fatah led to Hamas’ seizure of power....Netanyahu’s former coalition was thrown into chaos in November when Avigdor Liberman, who served as defense minister, quit the post and pulled his Yisrael Beytenu party from the government over, citing the premier’s policy in Gaza, which has included an agreement to allow millions of dollars of Qatari funding into the enclave in exchange for relative calm on the border. 'There was a possibility of conquering Gaza, but it would draw a lot of blood from our people, but it is not something that I can rule out completely,' he [Netanyahu] said. Netanyahu said he would continue to act 'responsibly' even if that meant there would be a political price to pay. As violence has continued to spill into Israel from Gaza in the form of weekly border riots and rockets and incendiary devices launched across the border, Netanyahu’s rivals have accused the long-serving premier of not doing enough to quell tension and abandoning Israeli citizens in the Gaza periphery region. Pressed on whether he would negotiate with Hamas, Netanyahu clarified that communication with the Islamist organization was 'not about a peace deal.' He said he would, via proxies, focus on returning captive Israeli citizens, slain soldiers and those who went missing in action in the enclave. 'Israel has to defend itself against any enemy. I don’t need international guarantees,' he said." • Israel Hayom also talked to the Prime Minister about the Trump peace plan : "As the date for unveiling a long-awaited and widely-anticipated US peace plan draws near, Netanyahu threw his weight behind his American ally. Saying he believes Washington will take Israel’s interests into account, Netanyahu said Israel should give US President Donald Trump’ so-called “deal of the century” a chance. 'We have to give President Trump a chance. I don’t know what will ultimately be presented, but I believe they respect what I have suggested,' he said. 'My guess is that coming from a friend, they will consider most of what I just said,' referring to his refusal to relinquish power west of the Jordan Valley and over a united Jerusalem. While Netanyahu expressed confidence his staunch American ally would deliver a plan that would align with the interests of the Jewish state and 'include everything we want,' he noted there was a possibility Israel would reject the offer. 'I hope we don’t have to say no,' he said....Touting his leadership capabilities, Netanyahu emphasized the importance of having an Israeli prime minister who is able to stand up to international pressure. 'If you can’t say no, then you become a little province in the corner of Asia,' he said, drawing a comparison between himself and his main election rival Gantz, whom Netanyahu said was 'incapable.' The US peace plan is expected to be released immediately after Israelis go to the polls on Tuesday." • • • PRESIDENT TRUMP MOVES AGAINST THE IRANIAN REVOLUTIONARY GUARD. If the Israel Hayom interview was PM Netanyahu's last pre-election word, President Trump got in one last big word on Monday. World media, including AP and Fox News, reported : "President Trump on Monday formally labeled Iran's Revolutionary Guard a 'foreign terrorist organization,' in Washington’s first such designation for an entire foreign government entity. The announcement, which officials said would put the military organization on the same level as terror groups like Hezbollah and Hamas, is the latest administration step to increase pressure on Iran. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, citing the IRGC's ties to terror plots, said the designation recognizes a 'basic reality. This designation is a direct response to an outlaw regime and should surprise no one. The IRGC masquerades as a legitimate military organization, but none of us should be fooled.' " Fox News reported that in his own statement, President Trump said the unprecedented move “underscores the fact that Iran’s actions are fundamentally different from those of other governments. If you are doing business with the IRGC, you will be bankrolling terrorism. This action sends a clear message to Teheran that its support for terrorism has serious consequences.” • Trump administration officials have said the step will further isolate Iran and make clear that the US won't tolerate Iran's continued support for rebel groups and others that destabilize the Middle East. But the designation may also have widespread implications for American personnel and policy in the region and elsewhere as Iran has threatened to retaliate. • Even before the Revolutionary Guard announcement was released, Israel Hayom analyzed it on Sunday : "The decision, which critics warn could open US military and intelligence officials to similar actions by unfriendly governments abroad, is expected to be announced by the US State Department, perhaps as early as Monday, the officials said. It has been rumored for years....US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has advocated for the change in US policy as part of the Trump administration’s tough posture toward Teheran. The announcement would come ahead of the first anniversary of US President Donald Trump’s decision to pull out of a 2015 nuclear deal with Tehran and to reimpose sanctions that has crippled Iran’s economy. The administration’s decision to make the designation was first reported by the Wall Street Journal. The United States has already blacklisted dozens of entities and people for affiliations with the IRGC, but the organization as a whole is not [blacklisted]. In 2007, the US Treasury designated the IRGC’s Quds Force, its unit in charge of operations abroad, 'for its support of terrorism,' and has described it as Iran’s 'primary arm for executing its policy of supporting terrorist and insurgent groups.' " • Israel Hayom reported on Sunday that : "Iran has warned of a 'crushing' response should the United States go ahead with the designation. IRGC commander Mohammad Ali Jafari warned in 2017 that if Trump went ahead with the move 'then the Revolutionary Guards will consider the American army to be like Islamic State all around the world.' Such threats are particularly ominous for US forces in places such as Iraq, where Iran-aligned Shiite militia are located in close proximity to US troops. Republican Senator Ben Sasse said the move would be an important step in America’s maximum pressure campaign against Teheran. 'A formal designation and its consequences may be new, but these IRGC butchers have been terrorists for a long time,' Sasse said in a statement. • Set up after the 1979 Islamic Revolution to protect the Shiite clerical ruling system, the IRGC is Iran’s most powerful security organization explained Israel Hayom : "It has control over large sectors of the Iranian economy and has a huge influence in its political system. The IRGC is in charge of Iran’s ballistic missiles and nuclear programs. Teheran has warned that it has missiles with a range of up to 2,000 km (1,200 miles), putting Israel and US military bases in the region within reach. The IRGC has an estimated 125,000-strong military with army, navy and air units and answers to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. It is unclear what impact the US designation of the IRGC as a terrorist organization might have on America’s activities in countries that have ties with Tehran, including in Iraq. Baghdad has deep cultural and economic ties with Iran and Oman, where the United States recently clinched a strategic ports deal." • • • DEAR READERS, it is clear that Iran is under President Trump's microscope and will feel more and more pressure to relax its terrorist activities around the world, as well as to provide personal freedoms to all Iranians and end political gulag-politics for those Iranians who dissent from the Ayatollahs who rule Iran with an iron fist. • And, since I'm not the US President -- who has to appear evenhanded about Tuesday's Israle election -- I will say "Good luck" and "Godspeed" to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as he fights to keep Israel on the right path domestically and internationally.