President Trump Takes on Europe, Iran, South America, and China

EUROPE IS NOT HAPPY WITH THE UNITED STATES. But, then, Europe hasn't been happy with the US since January 20, 2017, when their nemesis Donald Trump was sworn in as President of the United States. The unhappiness stems from the obvious style and tone differences between President Trump and the de-facto European leader, German Chancellor Angela Merkel. But, the real unhappiness comes from unhappiness President Trump's determination to instill some sense of self-discipline in European leaders. The Trumpian self-discipline is based on his firm commitment to conservative principles -- in continental Europe conservatism is usually called "populism" or "the far-right" -- especially control by citizens of the government that is elected by them. We have seen the fights break out over NATO financial support and trade fairness and global warming. But, right now, the issue is Iran. • • • PRESIDENT TRUMP TIGHTENS PETROLEUM SANCTIONS ON IRAN. TheHill reported on Monday that the Trump administration has moved "to increase its pressure campaign against Iran. In the latest move, the administration will not renew waivers that allowed eight foreign governments to buy Iranian oil without getting sanctioned." • White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders released the statement that read : "President Donald J. Trump has decided not to reissue Significant Reduction Exceptions (SREs) when they expire in early May. This decision is intended to bring Iran's oil exports to zero, denying the regime its principal source of revenue." • TheHill stated that Secretary of State Mike Pompeo a short time later also made the announcement from the State Department's press briefing room : "We're going to zero across the board. With the announcement today we have made clear our seriousness of purposes. We are going to zero. How long we remain there at zero depends solely on the Islamic Republic of Iran's senior leaders." • TheHill noted that : "Sanctions on Iranian oil purchases were reimposed in November as part of Trump's decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal. But amid concerns over roiling the international oil market, the Trump administration granted sanctions waivers to eight governments : China, India, Japan, Turkey, Italy, Greece, South Korea and Taiwan. The waivers are due for renewal May 2. Three of the places -- Italy, Greece and Taiwan -- have already stopped importing Iranian oil and so did not need their waivers renewed. But the others have not. It is unclear whether China, India, Japan, Turkey and South Korea will immediately be sanctioned May 3 if they do not stop importing Iranian oil by then, with officials sidestepping the question Monday." • The effect on oil prices was immediate, according to TheHill report : "Oil prices spiked Sunday after reports of the Trump administration's decision emerged and stayed high Monday. Brent crude futures, the international benchmark for oil prices, rose to as high as $74.31 per barrel Monday, a 3% increase and the highest price since November. Francis Fannon, Assistant Secretary of State for energy resources, brushed off the increase, saying, 'There's lots of reasons for what affects oil markets.' " AND, as reported by TheHill, the White House statement said : " 'The United States, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, three of the world's great energy producers, along with our friends and allies, are committed to ensuring that global oil markets remain adequately supplied. We have agreed to take timely action to assure that global demand is met as all Iranian oil is removed from the market.' Secretary Pompeo said the Saudis and Emiratis have assured 'they will ensure an appropriate supply for the markets,' but said he'd 'leave others' to discuss what specifically the two countries have agreed to." • The President's congressional supporters were happy. Senator Ted Cruz (R-Texas), who pushed Pompeo about the waivers at a recent hearing, applauded Monday's announcement as an "important step in finally ending all American implementation. This decision will deprive the Ayatollahs of billions of dollars that they would have spent undermining the security of the United States and our allies, building up Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programs, and financing global terrorism," Cruz said in a statement. Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Jim Risch (R-Idaho) agreed with the action : "I welcome the administration's announcement that the United States will no longer entertain exemptions for countries importing Iranian oil. Oil supplies make up a significant portion of the regime's revenue, and I support denying it the financial resources needed to pursue its malign agenda. Currently, market conditions are strong and we have confidence that other nations can and will fill any future gaps in the global oil supply." • Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, said TheHill, praised the decision as being "of great importance for increasing pressure on the Iranian terrorist regime. We stand with the United States' determination against Iranian aggression and this is the right way to stop it," he tweeted in Hebrew. However, China denounced the decision, saying : "Our cooperation with Iran is open, transparent, lawful and legitimate, thus it should be respected. Our government is committed to upholding the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese companies and will play a positive and constructive role in upholding the stability of global energy market." NATO ally Turkey was also not pleased. TheHill said that Turkey had been lobbying Trump for another waiver : "The #US decision to end sanctions waivers on #Iran oil imports will not serve regional peace and stability, yet will harm Iranian people. #Turkey rejects unilateral sanctions and impositions on how to conduct relations with neighbors," Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu wrote in a tweet in which he also tagged Pompeo and the State Department. • The Associated Press reported that : "Asian stocks were mixed on Tuesday while oil prices soared to their highest level since October after the US said it would soon impose sanctions on all buyers of Iranian oil....The European Union is criticizing the US decision to impose sanctions on countries that buy Iranian oil and warns that the move could damage an international effort to stop Iran developing nuclear weapons. European Commission spokeswoman Maja Kocijancic expressed 'regret' Tuesday over the US decision and that it 'risks further undermining' the Iran nuclear deal. US President Donald Trump pulled out of that pact last year, saying it does nothing to stop Teheran developing missiles or destabilizing the Middle East. Since then, the EU has put measures in place to side-step US sanctions on Iran, including a way to keep financial supply lines to Teheran open and protect European businesses operating there." • • • THE EU EFFORT TO CIRCUMVENT THE TRUMP SANCTIONS ON IRAN. DW (Deutsche Welle) reported on January 31 that Europe had set up a transactions channel with Iran : "Germany, France and the UK have set up a payment channel with Iran called INSTEX, to help continue trade and circumvent US sanctions. Washington has cautioned EU nations against such actions....The channel, set up by Germany, France and the UK, is called INSTEX -- short for 'Instrument in Support of Trade Exchanges.' " • German foreign minister Heiko Maas told reporters in January : "We're making clear that we didn't just talk about keeping the nuclear deal with Iran alive, but now we're creating a possibility to conduct business transactions. This is a precondition for us to meet the obligations we entered into in order to demand from Iran that it doesn't begin military uranium enrichment." DW said : "The payment channel allows for European countries to continue trade with Iran but could put them on a collision course with Washington....According to media reports, INSTEX will be based in Paris and will be managed by German banking expert Per Fischer, a former manager at Commerzbank. The UK will head the supervisory board. The European side intends to use the channel initially only to sell food, medicine and medical devices in Iran. However, it will be possible to expand it in the future. 'This is an important step and a political signal by E3, who feel duty bound to uphold the Iran nuclear deal as long as Iran fulfills all its obligations as set out in the treaty,' German government sources told DW, referring to the three EU countries. 'The E3 have emphasized their aim of facilitating legitimate trade relations with Iran.' Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told state television it was 'a first step taken by the European side...We hope it will cover all goods and items.'....the US State Department said it was 'closely following' reports on the European mechanism. 'As the President has made clear, entities that continue to engage in sanctionable activity involving Iran risk severe consequences that could include losing access to the US financial system and the ability to do business with the United States or US companies,' the State Department said in a statement. Trump pulled the US out of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal and reimposed sanctions last year. Along with fellow signatories Russia and China, the EU maintains that Iran has not broken its side of the deal and should be allowed to trade....'The lifting of sanctions is an essential dimension of the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), the Iran nuclear deal. The instrument launched today will provide economic operators with the necessary framework to pursue legitimate trade with Iran,' said a statement from Mogherini's office." • • • WHAT HAPPENS NOW? The Washington Institute's Patrick Clawson wrtoe in a "PolicyWatch 3111" on Tuesday : "The arguments for ending the waivers are certainly understandable. Firms in at least two of the countries receiving them -- Greece and Italy -- have not used them at all, so canceling those would have no significant economic impact. South Korea and Japan were already adjusting to the prospect of no Iranian oil last year, so ending their waivers should not disturb markets. Indian, Chinese, and Turkish firms have good alternatives to Iranian oil. So why extend these exemptions, even temporarily? The challenge in letting all waivers expire immediately is how to preserve crucial political cooperation with the affected countries, particularly the latter three. Among the many issues that Washington wants their help with, each country is positioned to facilitate the US agenda on Iran: Turkey by cooperating with restrictions on Iran’s use of the US dollar, India by preventing the regime from using Chabahar [port] to skirt restrictions on other Iranian ports, and China by strictly monitoring nuclear material used in Teheran’s redesigned Arak facility. In July 2018, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s official website expressed support for President Hassan Rouhani’s warning that 'if Iran’s oil is not exported, no regional country’s oil will be exported.' Specifically, Rouhani’s words were described as 'important remarks that reflect the policy and the approach of [Iran’s] system.' Rouhani then repeated the warning in December. US officials should take note of such threats, carefully reviewing plans for the unlikely possibility Iran tries to make good on them. Besides the military component, those plans could include making up for potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz by releasing 4 mb/d from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and helping Persian Gulf countries urgently expand their pipeline capacity. Currently, Gulf oil exports total 15 mb/d (5.9 mb/d Saudi, 3.4 Iraqi, 2.3 Kuwaiti, 2 Emirati, .25 Qatari, .20 Bahraini, and 1 mb/d in overall natural gas liquids), but pipelines carry only 7 mb/d of that amount (4.8 Saudi, 1.5 UAE, .7 Iraqi)." • The Washington Institute offers some advice : "The waiver for the Iranian port of Chabahar has been almost completely off the radar screen, but it requires careful handling. Located in eastern Iran on the Arabian Sea, Chabahar is less than 600 miles from the Afghan border, which is closer than any major Iranian city. In announcing the exemption for the port and a proposed railroad to Afghanistan last November, the State Department spokesperson said, 'This exception relates to reconstruction assistance and economic development for Afghanistan,' the exact language in section 1244(f) of the Iran Freedom and Counterproliferation Act. The exemption is of particular interest to India. The company India Ports Global Limited manages Chabahar port, and New Delhi is investing $500 million to develop it as a route for trade with Afghanistan. Indian officials have also pledged to donate 1.1 million tons of wheat to Afghanistan, and seven deliveries have already been made through Chabahar. A waiver to permit such food trade certainly serves US interests, as would allowing Afghanistan to import refined petroleum products from Iran. Pakistan has long used its central role as a transit country to Afghanistan as a lever for pushing Washington to ignore its tacit support for the Taliban. Helping India broaden the transit options would likely feed Pakistani paranoia about its enemy’s ambitions in Afghanistan and curtail assistance to the Taliban. So far, Chabahar is little used for Iranian trade; last year, it handled only 2.1 million tons, or 2% of the country’s overall trade, while its maximum capacity is only 8.5 million tons. Yet Chabahar has a fifty-four-foot draft, making it the lone Iranian port suitable for the 250,000-ton ships used so widely for international trade. Thus, Washington should consider locking the door before the horse bolts, specifying that the waiver is restricted either to the port at its present size or to Afghan trade alone. As with the nuclear issue, the debate about energy and port waivers would be better informed if all of them were published. While the current waivers have served U.S. interests, they would work better going forward if they were appropriately revised. Ending the oil waivers runs some risks in terms of keeping energy markets stable and ensuring continued international cooperation on other areas of Iran policy. As for the Chabahar port waiver, it should be restricted so that it does not become an escape valve for Iran. Finally, Baghdad’s gas and electricity waivers should be tweaked to fit within a tight timetable for Iraqi energy independence." • • • AND WHAT ABOUT EUROPE? The Gatestone Institute published an article on April 13 by Judith Bergman. The full article is available at < https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/14006/eu-collusion-iran >. • Bergman states : "The main purpose of the Instrument in Support of Trade Exchanges (INSTEX) is to ensure that Europe -- and potentially third countries -- can continue doing business with the mullahs in Iran without risking US penalties for contravening US sanctions. EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini seems strongly committed to ensuring that Iran -- and Europe -- continue receiving economic benefits from the illegal, unsigned, and unratified Iran nuclear deal." • For Bergman : "INSTEX....was designed to preserve the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the Iran nuclear deal, after the US left the deal in May 2018 and reinstated -- as well as broadened -- US sanctions on the country in November 2018. The main purpose of INSTEX is to ensure that Europe -- and potentially third countries – can continue doing business with the mullahs in Iran without risking US penalties for contravening US sanctions....Mogherini said recently, 'Our collective security requires a solid multilateral architecture for non-proliferation and disarmament. This is why the European Union will continue to work to preserve the nuclear deal with Iran,' said Mogherini, who insisted that Iran is complying with the JCPOA. It is not. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, referring to documents seized by Israel, stated that the nuclear deal was 'built on lies.' In addition, the head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, Ali Akbar Salehi, in a recent interview with Iran's state-owned Channel 2, made it clear that the flimsy 'nuclear deal,' initiated by then-US President Barack Obama, has done nothing to stop Iran from making advances in its nuclear program, according to Iran expert Dr. Majid Rafizadeh. '[T]he latest reports on Iran's nuclear progress,' Rafizadeh wrote, 'also indicate that Iran is on the threshold of modernizing its mechanism for producing highly enriched uranium, which can be utilized to build a nuclear weapon.' " • BUT, says Bergman : "EU member states such as France, Germany and the UK continue to claim that Iran is complying with its agreements: these countries evidently want to continue doing business with the mullahs. Official figures by Germany's Federal Statistics Office revealed that German exports to Iran grew by 4% to 2.4 billion Euros in the first 10 months of 2018, and monthly export volumes are expected to average 200 million to 250 million Euros a month in 2019. In October 2018, German goods exported to Iran totaled almost 400 million Euros ($455 million), representing a surge of 85% from the previous October and the highest monthly volume since 2009, according to Reuters." • Bergman quotes a German intelligence report that noted : "Iran has continued unchanged the pursuit of its ambitious program to acquire technology for its rocket and missile delivery program." Bergman states that Fox News reported in 2017 : "Much of that activity has evidently taken place in Germany : Iran's efforts to develop its nuclear and missile programs resulted in '32 procurement attempts...that definitely or with high likelihood were undertaken for the benefit of proliferation programs,' in the state of North Rhine-Westphalia." Fox News recently said : "Germany is now refusing even to disclose Iranian attempts to obtain nuclear weapons and missile technology, and claiming that it no longer keeps such statistics." • Bergman correctly brushes aside the EU's loud declarations that it "is based on a strong commitment to promoting and protecting human rights," saying : "When it comes to Europe's relationship with Iran, none of those lofty principles appears to matter at all. According to Amnesty International's 2017-2018 country report on Iran : 'The [Iranian] authorities heavily suppressed the rights to freedom of expression, association and peaceful assembly, as well as freedom of religion and belief, and imprisoned scores of individuals who voiced dissent. Trials were systematically unfair. Torture and other ill-treatment was widespread and committed with impunity. Floggings, amputations and other cruel punishments were carried out. The authorities endorsed pervasive discrimination and violence based on gender, political opinion, religious belief, ethnicity, disability, sexual orientation and gender identity. Hundreds of people were executed, some in public, and thousands remained on death row. They included people who were under the age of 18 at the time of the crime.' Women, it seems, were especially subjected to abuse. According to the report : 'Women remained subject to entrenched discrimination in law and practice, including in access to divorce, employment, equal inheritance and political office, and in family and criminal law...The authorities failed to criminalize gender-based violence....The legal age of marriage for girls remained at 13, and fathers and grandfathers could obtain permission from courts for their daughters to be married at an even younger age. All 137 women who registered as presidential candidates were disqualified by the Guardian Council. President Rouhani included no woman ministers in his cabinet, despite civil society demands. Compulsory veiling (hijab) allowed police and paramilitary forces to harass and detain women for showing strands of hair under their headscarves or for wearing heavy make-up or tight clothing..." • Lastly, Bergman raises the issue of Iran being the world's leading state sponsor of terrorism : "After all, Iran plotted four terrorist attacks on European soil since 2015 alone, according to the Dutch government. It alleged that Iran committed two assassinations in the Netherlands, and plotted one attack in Denmark and another in France -- the latter at a rally of dissidents. In fairness, the EU has produced the tiniest of pathetic gestures to pretend that it cares about Iranian terrorism : It imposed sanctions on Iran's intelligence ministry and two Iranian nationals. But has a little state-sponsored terrorism come between Iran and the EU in doing business -- professedly to preserve an illegal and unsigned Iran deal? Dream on. No amount of human rights abuses, however atrocious -- or terrorism, even against its own citizens; or cheating to acquire deliverable nuclear capability to unleash on Israel, the US and eventually threaten the entire West -- will, it seems, deter the EU from its criminal collusion with Iran. Europe seems determined to wade into its own destruction with its eyes wide open." • • • TRUMP SEES A GLOBAL THREAT AND TAKES A GLOBAL APPROACH TO IT. If the EU is chafing at President Trump because his determination to bring Iran under control interferes with Europe's commercial activities, European leaders ought to pause to consider what happens if Iran finally decides that rather than negotiating to keep Europe on its side, it simply tries to take over the EU. That is not so far-fetched a notion. Europe has no armies worthy of the name with the exception of France and the presumably exiting UK. France cannot hold Africa together against the al-Qaida and defend Europe as well. And, when the nuclear warhead and ICBM -- that the EU insists Iran does not have or want -- become operational, who will protect Europe against Iran's threat of using it as a commercial negotiating tool? The growing Middle Eastern Moslem populations in Europe would provide a sort of internal destabilizing prop for Iran. Europe's only protector is the United States and its military arm in Europe, NATO. Otherwise, Europe is defenseless. President Trump knows that -- and so does Europe. Consider its endless talk about developing a pan-EU army because it can no longer 'count on' the US as a defense partner. The EU is whistling in the dark on a suicidal scale when it chooses to side with an aggressively terrorist Iran against the democratic US, and on the fateful day, Europe will turn yet again to America. • If that is President Trump's reasoning, and it makes a lot of sense, he is sending Secretary of State Pompeo on several other regional missions. • American Thinker reported on April 12 in an article by Silvio Canto, Jr. that : "Secretary Mike Pompeo has announced that he will travel to Chile, Paraguay, Peru, and Colombia. His trip to South America is a step in the right direction, as Ana Quintana [she leads The Heritage Foundation's efforts on US policy toward Latin America] wrote : 'The four countries Pompeo will visit this week are leading international efforts against Maduro’s dictatorship. In the history of Latin America, this sort of cooperation and consensus is unprecedented.' There is symbolism attached to the trip as well. Three of the four countries -- Chile, Paraguay, and Peru -- have known oppression firsthand. All were formerly governed by dictatorships and are now democracies. The State Department is highlighting how their democratic transitions can serve as an example for a post-Maduro Venezuela. Chile today can boast of being Latin America’s most prosperous nation, based on per capita income. This year marks the 30th year anniversary of the plebiscite that started Chile’s transition to democracy....Paraguay is a dynamic example of a small country punching above its weight. This landlocked South American nation has overcome a history of political instability and dictatorships and is now emerging as a free-market-oriented democracy....Peru suffered through decades of military and authoritarian rule, yet the last two decades have seen an emergence of stable, democratic governance. After more than a generation of armed conflict with the narco-communist Shining Path insurgency, the fighting has finally calmed down....The final stop on Pompeo’s trip is Cucuta, Colombia. This border town is the primary crossing point for Venezuelans fleeing Maduro’s dictatorship. Since 2015, over 3 million Venezuelans have left their country. Nearly 2 million have resettled in Colombia, while 700,000 have resettled in Peru. Also, these four countries have serious leadership. During the Obama years, Latin America never received the attention it deserved. The Obama administration was only interested in 'Latinos' who wanted to walk into the US illegally. It's nice to see that the Trump administration is supporting democracies and also standing up to Maduro. Good move and another demonstration that Secretary Pompeo was a brilliant choice." • The US has always neglected South America and it is past time for that to change. If the obvious diplomatic reasons of regional cooperation and development are not sufficient, then the appearance of China and Russia in Venezuela and other South American countries should be. • Despite the world's jitters and outright opposition to President Trump's China trade position, it is working. Again we look to American Thinker to point this fact out. On April 18, Chriss Street wrote : "US West Coast container import traffic plunged by 19% in the first quarter of 2019 as Trump’s Trade War hammered China’s export economy. Drewry Maritime Research reported that US West Coast ports suffered from a 'tariff hangover' effect as transpacific container imports were down 19% from the previous quarter and down 3% from the same period last year. President Trump was hammered by Democrats and the mainstream media for the 11% jump in US exports from China during the last three quarters of 2018. But Drewry highlighted that container ship volumes and rates have tanked by 20% since January as Chinese exporters tried to front-run President Trump’s ratcheting up tariffs : 'Now that the sugar rush, caused by the threatened tariffs on Chinese goods, has passed, the market is readjusting to much slower volumes and prices.'....Bill Clinton’s globalist doctrine essentially provided 'socialism for capital and free markets for labor.' Trade economist Paul Krugman would win the Nobel Prize for supporting Clinton’s globalist New World Order that he called, 'an issue whose symbolic importance is much larger than its direct economic implications.' Clinton’s radical New World Order economic doctrine... precipitated 1994 Mexican peso crisis and the 1997 and the Asian financial crash. Clinton responded to the crises by doubling down on his doctrine by supporting US government-sponsored international bank bailouts and lobbied the Congress to pass China’s permanent recognition by the World Trade Organization as a tariff-free 'Most Favored Nation' in March 2000. After 43 years of balanced trade stability, the US monthly balance of trade relentlessly expanded to a record monthly deficit of -$67.8 billion by August of 2006. After a short recovery, a new plunge in the trade balance kicked off the 2008-2011 Great Recession. Clinton’s policies caused US domestic manufacturing employment to crash from 15.4% of US employment when he took office to 8.5% when President Trump took office. The obvious winner was China, that saw its balance of trade surplus spike from $18 billion when Clinton took office to $376 billion when Trump took office....Paul Krugman, who warned during the 2016 election campaign that Donald Trump’s MAGA policies would create a global recession, now claims the 'Trump Boom' record employment and fastest manufacturing job growth in three decades is unsustainable. BUT, it is China that is panicked about sustainability, as the Red Dragon has been slashing lending rates and offering subsidies to purchase new cars and appliances to counter the contracting growth of its tax collection that fell 12.4% last month." • President Trump's effort to bring China under the same economic playing field that the US is expected to use is bearing fruit. China knows this better than anyone. • • • DEAR READERS, since April 23 is William Shakespeare's birthday, let's tie together our blog today with this. In Julius Caesar, Cassis, trying to convince Brutus to join in the conspiracy to murder Caesar, says of Caesar : "Why, man, he doth bestride the narrow world Like a Colossus, and we petty men Walk under his huge legs and peep about To find ourselves dishonourable graves." Shakespeare turns that phrase meant to deride Caesar into praise in Antony and Cleopatra, when Cleopatra says of Marc Antony : "His legs bestrid the ocean : his rear'd arm Crested the world : his voice was propertied As all the tuned spheres, and that to friends; But when he meant to quail and shake the orb, He was as rattling thunder." • For those who would like to stop President Trump from bringing economic and democratic order to the world, he is Caesar, and those who would stop him can only "Walk under his huge legs and peep about." But, for those who support President Trump and wish him success, he is "rattling thunder," and they wait for his next move in a world full of "petty men" who cannot find either method or means to prevent his merited success.