The Middle East Black Hats Are No Match for President Trump and His Team

TODAY IT'S TIME TO PAY ATTENTION TO THE MIDDLE EAST. And forget about the Fake News ProgDem catterwalling over Trump's No Evidence Russian "collusion." The real news for America and the world right now is in Syria, Iran, and Israel. • • • IRAN THREATENS US TROOPS. CNS News' Patrick Goodenough reported on Tuesday that former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander Mohsen Rezai -- who is now secretary of the Expediency Council, a body that advises Iran’s supreme leader, and is wanted by Argentina in connection with a deadly 1994 bombing in Buenos Aires -- has responded to President Trump’s fiery warning tweet by issuing a veiled threat against 50,000 US troops within range of Iranian weapons, while another regime spokesman reminded President Trump of the rise and fall of empires, and a media mouthpiece envisaged the President facing divine retribution for threatening a country whose laws are based on Allah’s commandments. • While the official Iranian reaction to the Sunday speech of Secretary of State Mike Pompeo merely accused him of interfering in Iran’s internal affairs, there was no official reaction to Pompeo’s allegations of financial corruption against named senior officials and ayatollahs, including supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. • BUT, the Iranian regime is all over President Trump for his tweet late Sunday night warning President Hassan Rouhani never again to threaten the United States. Trump was responding to a speech in Teheran earlier in the day, in which Rouhani advised Trump not to “play with the lion’s tail” and said that a war with Iran would be “the mother of all wars.” It was Mohsen Rezai, former commander of the IRGC and 20-year secretary of the Expediency Council that advises Khamenei, who took the shot at US troops : “Iran’s sword is hanging over the heads of more than 50,000 of your troops, and you are threatening this madly. You be cautious.” • US military personnel are deployed in a number of countries in the region, with the largest contingents stationed in Afghanistan, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and Iraq. • CNS states : "Rezai is one of several senior Iranians wanted by Argentinian authorities -- and the subject of an Interpol red notice -- on suspicion of involvement in the worst terror attack in that country’s history : the 1994 suicide truck bombing of the AMIA Jewish community center in Buenos Aires, which cost 85 lives." • But, Rezai wasn't alone in pushing back againstthe Trump tweet. Foreign Minister Javad Zarif, also on Twitter, and pointedly also using upper case for some of the tweet, wrote : "“COLOR US UNIMPRESSED: The world heard even harsher bluster a few months ago. And Iranians have heard them -- albeit more civilized ones -- for 40 yrs. We’ve been around for millennia & seen fall of empires, incl our own, which lasted more than the life of some countries.” Zarif ended by mimicking Trump: “BE CAUTIOUS!” • And, according to CNS : "In an unsigned commentary Monday Kayhan, a hardline paper whose editor is appointed by the supreme leader, described Trump as 'a maniac aspiring to be a modern Pharaoh, little knowing that his wealth and his weapons are useless the moment Divine Wrath strikes him for threatening a country whose laws are based on the commandments of God Almighty. Broadening its attack, the Kayhan writer took aim at 'the team of thugs he has assembled in the White House,” labeling Pompeo a 'gangster,' National Security Advisor John Bolton a 'mustachioed bozo' and Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley a 'hag.' ” • Commenting on Pompeo’s speech in California, the Kayhan writer claimed Pompeo had elicited “vociferous boos” from the audience when he criticized the regime. In fact the audience gave Pompeo’s address an enthusiastic reception, and the only evident booing was directed at a lone heckler who sought to draw attention to an issue unrelated to the speech. • Other regime reaction came from Iran Daily, which CNS says quoted Qolam-Hossein Qeibparvar, head of the notorious Basij volunteer militia, as saying Trump “wouldn’t dare make the mistake of taking any action against Iran.” • Defense Minister Brigadier General Amir Hatami said Iran’s “enemies” only understand the language of force, as reported by the Fars news agency. Speaking at the launch of a new missile production line, he said the Islamic republic “has proved that it will give a firm response to any arrogant power with excessive demands.” Fars also quoted senior Iranian Navy commander Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayyari as warning the Americans that “we can jump down on their throat in some places in a way that they, themselves, do not believe.” • In recent weeks the Iranian regime has repeatedly made reference to its ability to block oil shipments in the Persian Gulf’s Strait of Hormuz if looming US sanctions target Iranian oil exports. Iranian Army ground force commander Brigadier General Kiomars Heidari said on Sunday : “The Strait of Hormuz region should be either safe for everybody or unsafe for everybody." • Meanwhile Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman Bahram Qassemi called Pompeo’s speech “disgraceful and hypocritical” : “The Iranians have never given in to the foreigners’ bullying policies and do not care about the policies of the US president and the minority in the country who seek to wage war and are not committed to moral and human principles.” CNS says Qassemi didn't say anything about Pompeo’s accusations that some regime officials and religious leaders were enriching themselves as the expense of the Iranian people, likening them to “the mafia.” • • • WHY THE VIRULENT IRANIAN PUSHBACK AT TRUMP? Epoch News wrote on Tuesday that the Iranian economy is "unraveling." Epoch News says : "Despite being one of the most oil-rich countries, Iran’s economy has been struggling for years. Iranians blame the government and have come out en masse to protest in recent months. The most recent protests have appeared to focus on a lack of drinking water. Iran’s currency, the rial, traded at less than 10,000 to the dollar a decade ago. It now stands at over 43,000 to the dollar, while Iranians buy dollars on the unofficial market for over 80,000 rials, according to a July 2 briefing by Brian Hook, director of policy planning for the US State Department. A third of Iranians live in poverty, Iranian economist Hossein Raghfar told the US-sponsored Radio Farda." • AND, the situation may soon worsen as the US prepares to reimpose sanctions on Iran -- first on sectors such as automotive, gold, and other key metals on August 6, and then on areas such as energy, petroleum, and banking on November 4. Epoch News states : "More than 50 international companies, particularly in the financial and energy sectors, have left Iran already, Hook said. Iran is trying to convince countries to find ways around the sanctions, but the United States is simultaneously working to convince countries to do the opposite and target the regime’s oil revenues. 'Our focus is to work with countries importing Iranian crude oil to get imports as close to zero as possible by November 4th,' Pompeo said." • President Trump ordered the reimposition of the sanctions on May 8 as he announced the United States’ withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal signed by former President Barack Obama and Russia, China, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany. It delayed Iran’s capacity to enrich enough uranium to build a nuclear weapon to 2026 in exchange for sanctions relief. Obama promoted it as “the best option,” painting a picture of an Iran “rejoining the community of nations.” BUT, Iran went in the opposite direction, announcing last year a 150% boost to its military budget. Pompeo told his Sunday audience : “During the time of the nuclear deal, Iran’s increased oil revenues could have gone to improving the lives of the Iranian people. Today, thanks to regime subsidies, the average Hezbollah combatant makes two to three times what an Iranian firefighter makes on the streets of Iran.” • President Trump and his administration are aiming for a global embargo of Iran, telling European allies that their countries have to cut economic ties with Teheran by November if they want to continue trading with the US, a vastly larger market. There will probably be no waivers for German, British or French business interests, who will now have no choice but to end all trade with Iran, according to most diplomatic sources. • Iran will be hit worst by a collapse of its resurgent oil industry, now exporting 2.5 million barrels a day. Iran -- OPEC’s third-largest producer -- has apparently asked China to pick up the slack and purchase its oil. The Trump administration is also preparing for a potential spike in oil prices once Iran is offline, talking to the Saudis about increasing their output. And, Iran recently threatened to cut off oil shipments in the narrow Strait of Hormuz, the passage connecting the Persian Gulf with global waterways. Despite the construction of Saudi pipelines circumventing the strait, approximately 17.5 million barrels a day still pass through the narrow passage. The White House also has a possible fallback strategy to soften the blow of rising oil prices by tapping the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, an emergency supply of crude oil stored in underground salt domes along the Texas and Louisiana gulf coasts to be used in the case of an energy crisis. • • • BOLTON SAYS TRUMP MEANS BUSINESS. On Monday, the Guardian interviewed US national security advisor, John Bolton, who doubled down on Trump's tweet. Bolton told the Guardian that President Trump plans to make Iran pay a price few countries have ever paid before. Bolton’s statement, according to the Guardian "was designed to show that Trump’s unexpectedly belligerent tweet was not a random act, or empty bluster but part of a considered move by the US administration to step up the economic, political and psychological pressure on Iran." For example, the Guardian pointed out that Trump's tweet "sent the Iranian national currency into a tailspin when trading opened on Monday, exacerbating months-old fluctuations that have prompted protests in Teheran’s Grand Bazaar. The rial, which has been rapidly depreciating against the dollar after Trump pulled the US out of the nuclear deal in May, hit a fresh all-time low. On Monday, $1 bought 92,000 rials on the black market, though many exchange bureaux had stopped trading." • President Trump’s tweet was criticized in Europe, which is already in sharp disagreement with the President over his decision to pull out of the 2015 nuclear deal. The Guardian said : "European leaders say there is no evidence that Iran is in breach of the deal, but they are struggling to find credible ways to protect businesses still trading in Iran from the threatened effect of US secondary sanctions. The first banking sanctions are due to come into force in three weeks. Some European diplomats said Trump’s attacks were only reducing the chances of reform inside Iran, including the hopes of persuading Iran to change its behavior in countries such as Syria, Yemen and Iraq. The emir of Qatar, Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, due to meet May in Downing Street on Monday, has warned that US sanctions could provoke Iran into closing the Strait of Hormuz -- cutting off European access to Middle East energy supplies. Roughly 20% of the UK’s liquid natural gas comes from Qatar." • But, even the very leftist anti-Trump Guardian had to admit this : " 'Desperate to find a way out' : Iran edges towards precipice." Foaz Izadi, a prominent Iranian commentator close to the establishment, accused Trump of attempting to distract attention from domestic pressures in the US. But, Izadi added that Iranian officials are concerned about Trump : “The rhetoric is negative and increasing on both sides, and people inside Iran are worried.” Worried about who is the real question. • • • IRAN IS LEARNING THAT TRUMP IS NOT OBAMA. the American Patriot Daily worte on Tuesday : "Iran is realizing it is a new day now that Donald Trump is President. For eight years, former President Obama appeased the Islamist government in Teheran. Obama agreed to the nuclear deal that allowed Iran to one day acquire a nuclear weapon. The deal also included the Obama administration funneling billions of tax payer dollars to Iran’s government, which critics contend could have been used to fund terrorist activities. And the Obama administration looked the other way as Hezbollah -- a terrorist group supported by Iran -- smuggled drugs into the United States. Trump came into office promising to correct Obama’s errors. And Trump made good on that pledge by withdrawing the United States from the disastrous Iranian nuclear deal back in May. Trump’s decision infuriated the global community -- which desperately wants to do business with Iran -- but the President campaigned on putting America first. Obama’s weakness enabled Iran to push toward a nuclear weapon and gain a foothold in Syria. As President, Obama put America last....as President, Trump has tossed aside Obama’s kid gloves and treated the Iranian government like the global threat that they are. And that has led to Iran changing its behavior." For example, President Trump ahs noted that under Obama in 2015 and 2016, there were a combined 58 instances of Iranian navy vessels harassing US ships. In 2018, that number is zero. • • • BUT, IRAN IS PUSHING AHEAD IN SYRIA. And, it is forcing Israel to respond. • Fox News reported on Tuesday that a Syrian fighter jet shot down after infiltrating Israel's airspace. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) said on Tursday that a Syrian Sukhoi fighter jet infiltrated Israeli airspace and was Israel shot down after the aircraft infiltrated Israeli airspace while flying over the Golan Heights. The IDF said the jet flew about 1.2 miles into Israeli airspace before it was hit by a pair of Patriot missiles. Lieutanant Colonel Jonathan Conricus said in a news conference the jet crashed in the Southern Golan Heights on the Syrian side. He added the Israeli military has sent numerous warnings to prevent anyone from violating its airspace. It’s unclear what happened to the Syrian pilots. • Fox News says : "Tuesday’s incident is the first downing of a Syrian jet since a US Navy F-18 Super Hornet shot one down over Syria in June 2017 after the Syrian plane fired on US-backed Syrian forces. This is the second time the Israel Air Force has brought down a Russian-made Syrian jet since 1985. The other time was on September 23, 2014, when Israel also shot down a Sukhoi jet that entered over the Golan Heights. On February 10, 2018, an Israeli F-16 was downed by Syrian anti-aircraft missiles after Israel fired on an Iranian drone that entered Israeli airspace. 'Since this morning, there has been an increase in the internal fighting in Syria and the Syrian Air Force's activity. The IDF is on high alert and will continue to operate against the violation of the 1974 Separation of Forces Agreement,' the military said in a tweet." • On Tuesday, according to Fox News, "Syrian forces reached the Golan Heights frontier for the first time in seven years. The government forces reached the border fence with the UN's Disengagement Observer Force. Minutes before the reported shootdown, Syria's state-run Al-Ikhbariya TV was broadcasting footage from the fence demarcating the UN buffer zone between Syrian and Israeli forces inside the Golan Heights. A UN observer post could be seen just on the other side of the fence." • The Israel Hayom Newsletter reported on Tuesday that Syria confirmed that one of its fighter jets was downed by Israeli air defenses. Israel Hayom quoted the IDF release : "The internal fighting in Syria has intensified since this morning, including increased Syrian aerial activity. We are on high alert and will continue to take action against any violation of the 1974 accord," referring to the Agreement on Disengagement between Israel and Syria, which stipulates a buffer zone around the shared border, among other provisions." • • • RUSSIA AND ISRAEL MEET TO DISCUSS GOLAN. Israel Hayom Newsletter reported on Tuesday that the scheduled meeting between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Russian Foreign Minister ‎Sergey Lavrov and Chief of Staff General Valery Gerasimov to discuss the situation in Syria took place. Israel Hayom said : "Israel rebuffed on ‎Monday a new Russian offer to keep Iranian forces in ‎Syria away from the Golan Heights cease-fire line, an ‎Israeli official said, complicating Moscow's bid to ‎stabilize the country amid a waning civil war.‎ The latest disagreement arose in a meeting between ‎Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and ‎Russia's top diplomat and top general, dispatched to ‎Jerusalem as Syrian government forces routed rebels ‎near the Golan.‎ In Monday's meeting...Netanyahu said a Russian offer to ‎keep Iranian forces 100 kilometers (62 miles) from the ‎border was not enough, according to an Israeli ‎official.‎ 'The Russians are speaking about the [100-kilometer] buffer ‎zone and are committed to it, but we said there are ‎also long-range weapons beyond this zone, and all ‎those forces must leave Syria,' the official said.‎ Israel had previously turned down a proposal by ‎Russia, which backs Syrian President ‎Bashar Assad, that Iranian forces be kept 80 kilometers (50 miles) ‎from the frontier, according to Israeli officials.‎ The Russian Embassy in Israel tweeted that Lavrov ‎and Chief of Staff General Valery Gerasimov ‎and Netanyahu discussed Assad's advance in ‎southwest Syria and 'issues related to Israel border ‎security.' " • Netanyahu held talks with President Vladimir Putin ‎in Moscow on July 11 amid Israel's concern that al-‎Assad, an old adversary, might defy a 1974 ‎demilitarisation deal on the Golan or allow his ‎Iranian and Lebanese Hezbollah allies to deploy ‎there.‎ Russia has said it wants to see the separation of ‎forces on the frontier preserved. Lavrov's deputy, ‎Grigory Karasin, told Russian media the foreign ‎minister's trip was "urgent and important." Before the meeting, according to Israel Hayom, Netanyahu said he would tell the ‎envoys that 'Israel insists on the separation of ‎forces agreement between us and Syria being ‎honored, as they were honored for decades until ‎the civil war in Syria broke out.' He also reaffirmed 'Israel will continue to act ‎against any attempt by Iran and its proxies to ‎entrench militarily in Syria.' " • Also on Tuesday, the Jerusalem Post reported that : "Russia is working to move Iranian forces and their proxies 100 km. from the Syrian border with Israel, a senior diplomatic official said Monday after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov. The Israeli official said Jerusalem’s goal is to remove Iran from all of Syria, and if Moscow wants to deal in the first phase with the buffer zone, then that is fine, 'but that does not satisfy us even in the first phase, because they [Iran] have weapons [in Syria] that go beyond that range.' ” • The JPost said that although Israel’s stated position remains "the removal of all Iranian forces and their proxies from Syria," PM Netanyahu made clear in his talks in Moscow two weeks ago that the priority was to move these forces away from the border, and to remove Iran’s long-range missiles from throughout Syria....Netanyahu was joined in the meeting by Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman and Chief of General Staff Lieutenant General Gadi Eisenkot, who spread out maps for the Russian visitors and showed intelligence information about where the Iranians have entrenched themselves throughout Syria, including close to the border. Netanyahu, according to the official, said Israel will hold Syrian President Bashar Assad responsible for any Iranian aggression toward Israel coming from Syrian territory." • The Jerusalem Post said that Israel also told Russia at the Monday meeting that it would like Syria to close its border with Lebanon to prevent the transfer of weapons there, that it would likeSyria to seal the border with Iraq as well to prevent pro-Iranian militias and weaponry from coming into Syria through Iraq; and that it would like Iran to stop the manufacture of precision missiles in Syria and remove its air-defense systems from the country. The JPost quoted the same Israeli official : "Iran wants to turn Syria into another Lebanon” in terms of the ability to fire missiles at Israel. We will not let that happen and will not wait until they are entrenched. We are already willing to pay the price for this.” • Netanyahu said at the beginning of the Monday meeting that the connection between Israel and Russia is “extraordinarily important and it exists, as you have seen, in the direct meetings between myself and President [Vladimir] Putin and between our staffs.” Netanyahu said he appreciated Putin’s words at his press conference in Helsinki last week with US President Donald Trump regarding the importance of Israel’s security." • But, at the weekly cabinet meeting before the meeting with Russia, the JPost noted that : "Netanyahu announced he would be meeting Lavrov and Gerasimov, but he made that announcement only after underlining Jerusalem’s ties with Washington. Referring to a nascent US campaign to discredit Iranian leaders -- a campaign that was manifest by a sharp tweet Monday from Trump against the Iranian regime, and a very critical speech delivered on Sunday by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo -- Netanyahu began the cabinet meeting by praising Trump and Pompeo for their position against the 'aggression of the Iranian regime. For years that regime was spoiled by the superpowers; it is good to see the US is changing this unacceptable equation. In this regard, I have to note that our diplomatic and military cooperation with the US is at an all-time high.' ” • • • WHAT WILL SYRIA DO AFTER THE CIVILA WAR ENDS? Israel Hayom Newsletter wrote on Tuesday that : "The Syrian president depends on Russia's graces while he attempts ‎to be more than an Iranian puppet, so he is unlikely to risk ‎targeting Israel directly. Israeli experts believe that as the Syrian ‎civil war comes to an end, the IAF will be able to preserve its ‎operational leeway in the foreseeable future....Now that President Bashar Assad, backed by Russia, Iran and ‎Hezbollah, is reclaiming control of the Syrian Golan Heights, the ‎threat he poses Israel has resurfaced to the point of potentially ‎jeopardizing the 1974 cease-fire agreement between Israel and ‎Syria.‎ The Israeli Air Force has enjoyed considerable operational leeway in ‎the northern sector during the seven-year civil war in Syria but now ‎that it is waning, this latitude may be curbed. If that is the case, ‎what are the chances that the next time Israel eliminates a threat ‎on Syrian soil, Assad would retaliate? ‎ • According to Dr. Yehuda Blanga, an expert on Middle East politics ‎from Bar-Ilan University, Assad, like his father before him, is likely ‎to opt for indirect retaliation, targeting Israeli assets overseas or ‎tasking Hezbollah with doing his bidding. : ‎"This has been Syria's way of retaliating without risking a direct ‎military conflict with Israel." Blanga said that right now, Assad and his allies are "up to their ‎necks" in efforts to re-establish the regime's grip on the war-torn ‎country, meaning that retaliating against Israel is not a priority for them. ‎The Syrian president is likely to reassess the situation once he feels ‎his rule is stable but even then, he may choose not to risk a ‎conflict with Israel or use Hezbollah against it. Instead, Assad will ‎probably call on Iranian terrorist cell abroad to carry out attacks ‎against Israel : ‎"This way, Assad will be able to bolster his image as Syria's ‎defender and while we will know who was behind the attack, we ‎won't be able to target them directly." • Middle East expert Dr. Mordechai Kedar said that one of the main ‎unknowns in this equation is how fast, and to what extent, ‎the Syrian army would be rehabilitated : ‎"If Assad's army has anti-aircraft missiles that can hit our jets, Israel ‎wouldn’t rush to strike [Syrian soil] because no one sends their ‎fighter jets on a one-way mission." According to Kedar, another issue is the question of Assad's ‎confidence and the extent of the influence Russia wields over ‎his regime : ‎"Unfortunately for Assad, Israel is backed by the US -- the Trump ‎administration backs [Israeli] strikes in Syria -- and Prime Minister ‎Benjamin Netanyahu is well-coordinated with [Russian President ‎Vladimir] Putin. Right now, the Kremlin doesn't seem to care about ‎these strikes and it's unlikely that Assad would risk defying it."‎ • Professor Efraim Inbar, who heads the Jerusalem Institute for ‎Strategic Studies, believes Russia will be able to stabilize the Syrian ‎sector, including setting red lines for Assad -- Israel and Russia are maintaining close coordination with regards to ‎IAF strikes on threats in Syria and the issue will not become a ‎problem unless Moscow decides Jerusalem's actions are ‎jeopardizing its regional interests, he explained. ‎According to Inbar, even if Assad is able to reinforce his army, he ‎will never be in a position to dictate terms to Russia, for the mere ‎reason it would leave him completely vulnerable to Iran : "Assad doesn't want to be an Iranian puppet and he needs Russia ‎to prevent that from happening. Israel need not worry."‎ • Dr. Daniel Schueftan, chairman of the National Security Studies ‎Center at the University of Haifa, also believes that until such time ‎as Assad feels he has completely re-established his regime, he is ‎unlikely to retaliate against Israel.‎ According to Schueftan, regardless of his hold on power, the Syrian ‎president would be wary of crossing Israel's red lines : ‎"Even if Assad will be motivated to strike back -- he will think twice. ‎He knows Israel would be willing to risk Hezbollah missile salvos on ‎its citizens to protect its interests and if need be, it will go to war in ‎the northern sector." • But, Syria also is becoming more and more dependent on Hezbollah for fighting units. And Hezbollah has its own problems. The Washingotn Institute published a paper by Matthew Levitt on Friday that was originally published in Arabic on the Alhurra website. Levitt outlined Hezbollah's current situation : "The group's involvement in human trafficking and other criminal activities is far more extensive than Nasrallah [Hezbollah's leader] cares to admit, going well beyond anything his anti-corruption committee is likely to address. In the run-up to the recent Lebanese elections, Hezbollah officials and candidates rarely spoke about the party's military deployment in Syria. Instead, they focused on two main issues : the economy and corruption. What Hezbollah wants to avoid discussing most of all is how its fight in Syria to support Assad's regime relates to the eroding economy and growing corruption it is suffering inside Lebanon. In general, the state of extraordinary dissatisfaction within Hezbollah's traditional Shia political base is the result of the party's deep slide in the Syria war and the growing number of its dead there. For some of Hezbollah's old supporters, the doctrine of 'resistance' was specifically related to Israel, not to defending President Assad and his war against mostly Sunni Syrian civilians. In the run-up to the parliamentary elections, signs were posted on the highway in the Beqa area, Hezbollah's main stronghold, opposing the party's candidates and bearing slogans such as 'We are keen to resist, but our loyalty is to Baalbek Hermel.' There has been a state of irony and suspicion within Hezbollah's ranks over the heavy price the organization is paying to support the Assad regime. Many Hezbollah fighters see they are paying the whole price, while the Iranians are reaping the benefits. As a result, a large number of veterans are leaving the party, making room for a new and different group of younger fighters. The new fighters join the party in order to get a salary, not to fulfill a sense of conviction, which makes the Syria war an economic rather than ideological issue for this new generation of Hezbollah soldiers. Accordingly, Hezbollah is also suffering from a crisis of confidence based on the realization that the group has become implicated in corruption. Hezbollah is recruiting its fighters from the poorest areas in Beirut's Dahiya neighborhood and the Beqa region along the Syria-Lebanon border, and to a lesser extent from southern Lebanon. But at a time when Hezbollah is recruiting the poor, its wealthy supporters are profiting from the war." • • • DEAR READERS, the Middle East is a complex mass of conflicting and converging ideologies, strategies, and goals. Israel is indeed fortunate that the US stands behind it, for alone it would eventually be overrun and razed. In some ways, the same can be said of an Iran without a Russian godfather. But, Russia has a larger goal than the protection of Iran -- it wants to become once again the leading voice in the region. And, it is thus far advancing toward its goal. That requires working with the United States and Israel. Iran has two other "friends" -- China and North Korea. • Fox News and other outlets tell us that satellite images of North Korea indicate that it has begun to dismantle a missile test site at the Sohae Satellite Launching Station. A weapons-program expert told Fox News that the move is “an important first step toward fulfilling a commitment made by Kim Jong-un.” This tells us that President Trump's North Korea stratefy is working and that NK will not be a friend of Iran for much longer. • That leaves China. And, President Trump has undertaken to pull China into the real international community by shutting down its currency manipulation and trade cheating. China may not publicly say it is worried about Trump's strategy of imposing tariffs on Chinese goods, but the world knows that the US can live much longer without Chinese products than China can live without the US market. This is bound to have a negative impact on China's relationship with Iran because China, like every other country, will soon have to decide if it can fight a trade war with the US while defying Trump on re-imposed sanctions on Iran and taking the additional hit of being shut out of US Dollar based international transactions. • I often say it -- do not under-estimate Donald Trump. He and his team are way ahead of the world's Black Hats. • Trump is working on a version of what the military call a pincer movement, or double envelopment. It's a military maneuver in which forces simultaneously attack both flanks (sides) of an enemy formation. The pincer movement typically occurs when opposing forces advance towards the center of an army that responds by moving its outside forces to the enemy's flanks to surround it. At the same time, a second layer of pincers may attack on the more distant flanks to keep reinforcements from the target units. A full pincer movement leads to the attacking army facing the enemy in front, on both flanks, and in the rear. If attacking pincers link up in the enemy's rear, the enemy is encircled. Such battles often end in surrender or destruction of the enemy force, but the encircled force can try to break out. They can attack the encirclement from the inside to escape, or a friendly external force can attack from the outside to open an escape route. • In this Trump pincer, the President is making sure that there are no friendly forces available to help the Black Hats. • The pincer -- or lack thereof -- is for most Americans associated with Pickett's Charge on Cemetery Hill during the Civil War Battle of Gettysburg. General Lee rejected General Longstreet's proposal to use a traditional pincer movement to attack the flanks of the Union army led by General Meade, entrenched at the top of Cemetery Hill. Lee opted for the Pickett Charge to the center of Meade's lines that, while using some flanking movements, never used a full pincer, and lost the battle and probably the war on that July 3, 1863, day. • Pickett's Charge became one of the iconic symbols of the literary and cultural movement known as the Lost Cause. William Faulkner, the quintessential Southern novelist, summed up the picture in Southern memory of this gallant but futile episode : "For every Southern boy fourteen years old, not once but whenever he wants it, there is the instant when it's still not yet two o'clock on that July afternoon in 1863, the brigades are in position behind the rail fence, the guns are laid and ready in the woods and the furled flags are already loosened to break out and Pickett himself with his long oiled ringlets and his hat in one hand probably and his sword in the other looking up the hill waiting for Longstreet to give the word and it's all in the balance, it hasn't happened yet, it hasn't even begun yet, it not only hasn't begun yet but there is still time for it not to begin against that position and those circumstances which made more men than Garnett and Kemper and Armistead and Wilcox look grave yet it's going to begin, we all know that, we have come too far with too much at stake and that moment doesn't need even a fourteen-year-old boy to think This time. Maybe this time with all this much to lose than all this much to gain: Pennsylvania, Maryland, the world, the golden dome of Washington itself to crown with desperate and unbelievable victory the desperate gamble, the cast made two years ago." __William Faulkner, Intruder in the Dust.