Obama's Nuclear Deal Unleashed Iran's Anti-West Commercial Strategy

TODAY'S REAL NEWS IS THAT THERE'S A BROOM CLOSET IN THE DEFENSE DEPARTMENT. A forgotten analyst sits in it every day, and he yells out "Don't forget Iran' -- but, Defense and State and the White House are so busy with North Korea that they have forgotten Iran -- and Iran could not be more pleased with this turn of events. It is quietly developing its own ICBMs. • • • WHY IS EUROPE SILENT ABOUT THE IRAN ICBM THREAT? Because European companies are so busy making deals with Iran that the ICBM threat has disappeared from their radar. • The Washington Post reported on July 14 that the French energy giant Total had signed a landmark gas deal with Iran in July, and that TOTAL's chief executive lauded the nearly $5 billion investment as a trailblazing initiative for peace. Total CEO Patrick Pouyanné told Agence France-Press : “We’re here to build bridges, not walls. Economic development is also a way of building peace.” The venture, which includes China’s National Petroleum and the Iranian company Petropars, will develop the South Pars gas field under a 20-year contract. It is Iran’s first major energy contract with a European firm since a nuclear deal lifted sanctions on Iran last year. The WP wrote : "Pouyanné’s remarks reflect a broader vision among European leaders for improving ties with Iran, in part by encouraging firms such as Total to invest now that major sanctions are gone. But his comments also highlight the growing rift between the United States and Europe over how to engage with Iran, which the Trump administration has identified as a global menace and singled out for sanctions and isolation. Since President Trump took office, Europe and the United States have pursued increasingly different courses on Iran, casting doubt over the future of the nuclear accord, which limits Iranian nuclear activities in exchange for sanctions relief and other trade." • What Europe sees in Iran, now that sanctions are lifted, is a huge consumer and energy market. There is little concern for the ramifications of Iran's nuclear programs or ICBM development. According to the WP : "French, German and Italian companies have also invested in sectors including renewable energy, luxury hotels and auto manufacturing....the French company that makes Peugeot and Citroen cars said that its sales nearly tripled in the Middle East and Africa in the first half of the year because of new production in Iran." Fanien Dany, a Teheran-based business consultant, told the Washington Post : “The Europeans are returning, the Chinese are returning, the Russians, Ukrainians....There are very big companies with appetites for investment in Iran. And they’re going through with it.” • What the US sees, after a conservative President and Congress assumed power in January, is an Iran that is repressive, dangerously pursuing hidden nuclear agendas, and a threat to Middle East stability and the future of Israel. In April, the Trump administration informed Congress that Iran was in compliance with the deal, despite President Trump's disagreement with the veracity of the certification and his often-stated belief that the Iran deal was "the worst deal ever made." Since a certification must be made every 90 days, the Trump administration has put the nuclear deal under review -- with the option to abandon it entirely. The WP says officials have told it the policy review should be completed before the next certification is due in October. • Ellie Geranmayeh, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told the WP : "There is a clear division between where the Europeans are going and where the Americans are going on Iran. The Europeans have embarked on a path of rapprochement. The US is looking at a policy of isolationism and containment.” Concerning Total’s $4.8 billion investment, which analysts say has the backing of the French government, Geranmayeh describes the decision as “seen as, ‘We’re going ahead despite all the uncertainties of the US administration.’ Europeans are messaging : ‘Our foreign policy on Iran now is different to yours in Washington. We’re not just going to automatically follow suit.’ ” • The Washington Post says that critics of the European approach, and of the nuclear deal, say the pro- business attitude has blinded the international community to incremental violations of the accord by Iran : "Iran, critics point out, has twice breached the limit the accord places on heavy water, a chemical used in nuclear reactors capable of yielding plutonium. Still, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the body tasked with monitoring Iran’s nuclear program, certified in June that it was in compliance with the agreement." Behnam Ben Taleblu, Iran analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington-based think tank, told the WP : “Europe sees Iran’s violations as individual and accidental." FDD has taken a critical stance on the deal, and its chief executive, Mark Dubowitz, has publicly urged Persian Gulf states to refuse to work with companies that do business with Iran. Taleblu says : “Because European businesses want to return to Iran, they are inclined to downplay those violations,” adding that US officials believe that the violations “add up to something much more nefarious.” • It is becoming clearer with every European business deal with Iran that even if President Trump finally scraps the Iran deal, Europe will not follow. Neither will Russia, which has a traditional trading relationship with Iran. And ,China will almost surely follow Russia and Europe unless the Trump administration finds a way of "convincing" China that is more powerful than current US efforts to vring China into the fold about the North Korean nucelar rampage. Geranmayeh says European leaders are already discussing “contingency planning for a potential US overt or covert interference with European foreign policy on Iran. The Europeans...are trying their best to keep the Americans on board with them. But they are also saying, ‘If there is unreasonable obstruction to that, we are going to be looking at what our options are.’ ” • If all this sounds like the usual European bluster and dilly-dallying, consider that Reuters reported early this year that German exports to Iran soared by 26% in 2016, and in the first quarter of 2017, by 30%. Germany’s Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DIHK) said in March that trade between Germany and Iran was worth 2.9 billion Euros in 2016, up from 2.4 billion Euros in 2015, citing data from the Federal Statistics Office showed. Exports of German goods accounted for 2.6 billion Euros of that amount. DIHK foreign trade economist Volker Treier told Reuters he was sticking to the aim of boosting trade in goods between Germany and Iran to 5 billion Euros by the end of 2018 : “With these growth rates, that’s certainly achievable,” he said, though he added that a previous prediction of trade volume reaching 10 billion Euros within 10 years would take longer. “It’s a stable upswing,” he said. “But it’s not the great success of which we dreamed and of which we are still dreaming.” Treier said part of the problem was that hardly any major banks want to get involved in projects and business with Iran due to some US sanctions that remain in place. German banks in the United States risk fines by breaching such restrictions. Another issue is that Iranian banks often do not fulfil international standards, he said. • And, we can add, "As goes Germany, so goes the EU." • • • IRAN NUDGES INTO EAST ASIA THROUGH COMMERCE. These reports are from Middle East outlets, some Iran state-related. I'll point out their origin and try to present a balanced set of facts. But, to get any of these stories, it is necessary to go to the Middle East for sources -- US and most European media are not providing coverage. That said, here is what' going on with Iran. • • • JAPAN AND IRAN. Iran Front Page News < ifpnews.com > [a news website established in 2014 after obtaining an official license from Iran's Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance that looks at Iranian Newspaper front pages, translation of news and views from the Iran newspapers -- it is an Iran mouthpiece] reported on Wednesday that the Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif and visiting Japanese Prime Minister’s envoy Masahiko Komura have discussed issues of mutual interest, particularly the North Korea developments, in a meeting in Teheran. IFPN said : "During the Wednesday talks, Zarif referred to the agreements signed between Teheran and Tokyo on the expansion of economic ties, including the recent deals on financing energy projects in Iran, and expressed the hope that Japan would turn into a strong partner for Iran in such fields as transportation, energy, and oil and gas. 'The two sides are making preparations to achieve the goal, and we believe Iran and Japan can become good partners in politics and economy.' Zarif called Iran the most stable, secure and democratic state of the Middle East, adding that securing the mutual interests of the two sides requires Japan’s more active and constructive presence in the Islamic Republic. Zarif also stressed that Iran has based its main principles on opposition to any use of nuclear weapons or threats. He then called for the peaceful settlement of differences and underlined the need for cooperation among main regional players to ease the current tensions." • For his part, the Japanese PM’s envoy and vice-president of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party expressed satisfaction with his visit to Iran and holding political and economic talks with Iranian officials. Komura then praised Iran’s regional role and said Japan respects the Islamic Republic of Iran for living up to its commitments. He also said preparations to establish lines of credit between the two sides are at their final stages, and once the LCs are finalized, the Iran-Japan economic ties would enter a new phase. Komura also referred to the ongoing crisis in the Korean peninsula, and expressed his deep concern over the complicated developments regarding North Korea." • So, Iran and Japan are talking, doing business and, if we can believe IFPN, Iran will soon have Japanese bank Letters of Credit to ease its entry into international business deals, something the US has strongly opposed. • • • FRANCE AND IRAN. Press TV, Teheran < presstv.com > -- in reality a 24-hour English language news and documentary network, affiliated with Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB). IRIB is state-owned and is the only legal TV and radio broadcaster inside Iran. IRIB's head is appointed directly by the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and is considered to be close to Iran's conservative political faction. Press TV is headquartered in Teheran, with offices and bureaus around the world, including London, Beirut, Damascus, Kabul, and the Gaza Strip. It bills itself as a third alternative to what it considers to be biased Western media and to sunni media attached to radical Islamic terror groups; critics consider it a shill for the Iranian regime. • Press TV reported on Wednesday that Iran signed $42 billion deal with French Sofregaz, the French Oil company. Sofregaz has signed an agreement with an Iranian private company to recover gas flared at Iran’s South Pars gas field. The project will be implemented at phases second and third of the giant gas field which Iran shares with Qatar. IRNA, Iran's official media outlet, reported at the same time that the CEO of French SOFREGAZ Company, Yann Aubry Lecomte, said in Teheran on Wednesday that 95% of flare gas of the second South Pars Refinery will be recovered through utilization of modern technologies. During the signing ceremony for South Pars Second Refinery Flare Gas Recovery and Utilization Project Phases 2&3, Lecomte pointed to three years of cooperation with Iranian companies and called this cooperation constructive and useful. The French CEO added that the implementation of this project has noticeable economic profit as well as environmental advantages, underlining that it uses state-of-the-art flare gas recovery technologies. The agreement was signed by National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC), French oil and gas firm Sofregaz and Iran's Sanat Sazeh Samin Company. The agreement is to be implemented in 30 months. • • • EURASIAN ECONOMIC UNION AND THE SHANGHAI COOPERATION ORGANIZATION. While Iran is doing business deals with European companies, it is pushing much deeper into Eurasian political and economic networks already in place. • Iran Today, part of Press TV, announced on Wednesday that talks on an EEU-Iran partnership are close to conclusion. Russia's First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov said at the Eastern Economic Forum : "Negotiations with Iran on partnership with the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) are close to conclusion. We are in talks with Singapore and we are close to conclusion of negotiations with Iran." The Russian deputy PM noted that the talks are complicated, TASS reported. On August 14, the chairman of the EEC, Tigran Sargsyan, said a temporary agreement on establishing a free trade zone between the EEU and Iran may be signed in 2017, possibly at the next summit, scheduled for October 11. • Iran's Ambassador to Russia Mehdi Sanaei says Iran is interested in economic projects of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) member states, the EEU and the Chinese Silk Road. In 2016, Russia and Iran agreed to pay for products in national currencies, thus stepping up economic cooperation -- a step in cutting out international transaction dealing in the US Dollar to undercut the US. The EEU includes Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. But, the SCO represents half the world's population and 25% of its GDP. It encourages regional economic integration through the free movement of goods, services and people within the union. Eurasian political, economic, and security organisation. The SCO was created on 15 June 2001 in Shanghai, China, by the leaders of China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. The SCO Charter entered into force in September, 2003. India and Pakistan joined SCO as full members in 2017 in Astana, Kazakhstan. Nations with observer status are Afghanistan, Iran and Mongolia. The United States asked for observer status, which was quickly denied. In 2012, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Belarus, Nepal and Sri Lanka applied for observer status with the SCO. Egypt and Syria have also submitted applications for observer status, while Egypt, Israel, Maldives and Ukraine have applied for dialogue partner status. Iraq also expressed interest in becoming an SCO dialogue partner in 2017. Current dialogue partners are Armenia, Azerbaijan, Cambodia, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Turkey. After the UN sanctions on Iran were lifted, Chinese president Xi Jinping announced its support for Iran's full membership in SCO during a state visit to Iran in January 2016. • Western media analysts believe that one of the original purposes of the SCO was to serve as a counterbalance to NATO and to avoid conflicts that would allow the United States to intervene in areas bordering both Russia and China. At the SCO summit in July 2005, with the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq foreshadowing an indefinite presence of US forces in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, the SCO requested the US to set a clear timetable for withdrawing its troops from SCO member states. Uzbekistan later requested the US to leave the K2 air base. • In November 2005, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov reiterated that the "Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) is working to establish a rational and just world order" and that "The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation provides us with a unique opportunity to take part in the process of forming a fundamentally new model of geopolitical integration." The People's Daily said : "SCO member countries have the ability and responsibility to safeguard the security of the Central Asian region, and calls on Western countries to leave Central Asia. That is the most noticeable signal given by the Summit to the world." A 2010 analysis in American Legion Magazine said that "Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao...has concluded that the United States is maneuvering 'to preserve its status as the world's sole superpower and will not allow any country the chance to pose a challenge to it.' " • • • QATAR, OMAN AND INDIA. This brings us to the biggest, most strategic "commercial" deal Iran is putting together today. Iran's official media outlet, the Islamic Republic News Agency, wrote on Wednesday that Iran and Qatar have discussed ways to enhance mutual cooperation : "Minister of Road and Urban Development Abbas Akhundi in a meeting with Emir of Qatar Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani in Doha on Wednesday discussed ways to develop cooperation, especially in the field of urban development. The meeting took place on the sidelines of the inaugural ceremony for Hamad Port opening. • The real importance of the meeting was that the Omani minister was present for the opening of Hamad Port located 40 kilometers south of Doha. It cost $7.4 billion and is one of the biggest port installations in the Middle East region." While the Iranian official IRNA media outlet was enthusiastic about commercial ties and development, the online Middle East Eye gave a more strategic view of the port. • MEE, < middleeasteye.net > , says Wikipedia, "is an 'independently-funded online news organization' founded in February 2014 which 'aims to be the primary portal of Middle East news.' The MEE's editor is David Hearst, former chief foreign leader writer for The Guardian. The MEE is wholly owned by M.E.E. Ltd, a UK company that employs about 20 full-time staff in its London offices and has a network of freelance journalists. The sole director of M.E.E. Ltd is Jamal Bassasso, a former director of planning and human resources at Al Jazeera. David Hearst has said that his staff came from varied backgrounds while noting that 'some were activists, but this doesn't effect their professional journalism.' Hearst claimed that MEE is not linked to any government or movement. The Middle East Eye is currently blocked in the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia by the countries' internet censorship authorities." • So, with that understanding, we can report that the MEE calls the Hamad port on the Gulf of Oman part of Iran’s new weapon in South Asia, but Iran's own port at Chabahar is more important. The MEE says : "Iran's port at Chabahar will help Teheran balance its relations with India and Pakistan and has the potential to turn the waters north of the Indian Ocean into a maritime 'sphere of influence.' " MEE says Iran "usually grabs headlines for its activities in the Persian Gulf and the Levant, from Iraq to Syria to Lebanon. More often than not, regional officials and observers alike point to the 'axis of resistance' or, more politically, the 'shia crescent' to show Teheran’s extensive influence in the Middle East. Yet the Gulf of Oman, Arabian Sea, and more broadly South Asia is the scene of another decisive, albeit underreported, rivalry involving the Islamic Republic. Iran’s Chabahar port, the India-funded project...is expected to start operating in the next year or so, opening a new transit route for Afghan and Central Asian goods....It will also pose a major challenge to Gwadar, the Chinese-funded Pakistani port less than 100km away -- and, in a region with an already volatile balance of power, will give Teheran leverage over South Asian players." MEE says that despite serious political differences with Iran over a range of enduring disputes from relations with Israel to the Kashmir conflict, India has long pursued the Chabahar port project. In his first official visit to Teheran in May, 2016, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi signed a three-way transit deal involving Iran and Afghanistan to turn Chabahar into a transit hub and pledged $500 million for its development. The accord will enable all three countries to bypass their rival Pakistan for convenient and reliable access to the subcontinent and the Indian Ocean. This is particularly important for landlocked Afghanistan which has been at the mercy of Pakistan’s efforts to maintain a dominant position in the war-torn country by cultivating like-minded militant groups....Chabahar will also provide India with an alternative route to Central Asia, Russia and European markets, undermining perceived Chinese-Pakistani attempts to “encircle” Delhi. Indian PM Modi said : "The agreement can change the course of history in this region." Modi described his visit as a “new chapter in our strategic partnership." • MEE says the new Chabahar port actually lets Iran balance its relationships with nuclear powers Pakistan and India, particularly the shia communities in Pakistan and India. In a speech in June marking the Eid al-Fitr holiday, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei pointed to the “numerous wounds” that have been inflicted on the body of the Islamic “Ummah” including the predicament of ouslems in Kashmir. Khamenei said : “The Moslem world should support the people of Yemen and denounce the oppressors who...are committing aggressions against them, as it should those of Bahrain and Kashmir as well." • That, takes Iran's Chabahar port interests away from commerce and into its eternal struggle with The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, its sunni opponent for power in the Middle East and beyond. Iran hit at India because of Modi’s historic trip to Tel Aviv and growing ties between India and Israel, Iran’s arch enemy. But, says MEE : "Now with Chabahar, Iran will have a 'hard' geopolitical tool to influence India and Pakistan and pressure them to align their regional policies in congruence with Teheran’s interests....[And] The Chabahar port and the convenient access it offers to landlocked Afghanistan through the Zahedan railway project -- worth $1.6bn -- also promises to strengthen Iran’s hand in the Afghan theatre. This is a key development at a time when various regional actors, from India to Russia, are striving to influence the dynamics of war in the South Asian country in their favor. The Chabahar port in the Gulf of Oman and its planned railway connection to Zahedan -- almost adjacent to both Afghanistan and Pakistan -- can enhance military cooperation between Teheran and Delhi at the expense of Islamabad." • Perhaps, the most important strategic aspect of the Chabahar port is that it will allow Iran greater manoeuverability in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz, where tense encounters occur between the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and the US Navy and other forces. MEE points out that : "By virtue of boosting Iran’s naval presence in the Gulf of Oman and Arabian Sea, it can furnish an operational lifeline and serve as a reliable source for logistical assistance to IRGC forces operating in the Persian Gulf, augmenting Iran’s strategic depth in that crucial area. Apart from increasing territorial dependency on Iran for access to Central Asia, Chabahar has the potential to turn the waters north of the Indian Ocean into a maritime 'sphere of influence' the type of which Teheran lacks elsewhere." [Maysam Behravesh wrote the long MEE article.] • • • DEAR READERS, for Iran, the opening of the Chabahar deep water port gives it access to the Indian Ocean and beyond, into the South China Sea and East Asia -- where its allies China and Russia are confronting the US, Japan and South Korea over the North Korea nuclear program, in which Iran plays a hand. The focus of US media on Europe and East Asia misses all the world-changing developments taking place in the Middle East and across Eurasia into China. Iran is a leader in these key building blocks of an anti-America, anti-Europe Eurasia focused on becoming the world's dominant power axis. Today, Russia and China are standing by, lamenting the nuclear rampage of North Korea awhile using none of their influence over the Hermit Kingdom to stop its nuclear challenge being hurled ar the US and its East Asia allies. Russia and China are not hand-wringers except when it suits them. And, seeing the US back down and figuratively abandon Japan and South Korea would suit them just fine. That is tomorrow's topic.