Iran's Expanding Military Strategy Encompasses Hezbollah, Iraq, Israel and North Korea

TODAY'S REAL NEWS IS THAT IRAN IS ON THE PROWL MILITARILY. And so is Israel. • • • ISRAELI AIR FORCE HITS SYRIAN CHEMICALS PLANT. The UK Independent, reported on Thursday that the Israeli air force targeted a Syrian military base in an air strike, killing two people and causing material damage, citing a statement from the Syrian army. The bombing occurred near Masyaf in Hama province in the early hours of Thursday, the army general command said, warning of the “dangerous repercussion of such hostile acts on the security and stability of the region.” The target was likely a chemical facility. The Syrian civil war monitor Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) said the site is a scientific research center, labeled by the US as a "non conventional weapons agency," because American officials believe the base is used for the manufacture of chemical weapons - which the Syrian government denies. The Independent says targeting a chemical site would "be a rare decision." Amos Yadlin, a former head of Israeli military intelligence, tweeted that the reported attack was not routine and had targeted a Syrian military scientific center : "The facility at Masyaf also produces chemical weapons and explosive barrels that have killed thousands of Syrian civilians." • Worth noting is that on Wednesday the UN found that the Syrian government was responsible for a sarin gas attack on the rebel-held village of Khan Sheikhoun earlier this year which killed dozens of people and prompted President Trump to launch a missile strike on a Syrian air base as a "warning shot" -- the first ever direct US intervention in the civil war. The UN investigation also found that Assad has used chemical weapons on 20 separate occasions since 2011. • While the Israel Defense Foces would not comment on an operational matter, the Independent says that Israeli officials' main worry about Syria is Iran’s political influence over the al-Assad government, making Syria a potential site for missiles aimed at Israel, as well as the presence of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, Hezbollah and other shia militias that take part in the fighting. Both Hezbollah and Iran have sworn the destruction of the Jewish state. • • • HEZBOLLAH -- IRAN'S ATTACK DOG. In late August, the New York Times published an long report titled "Iran Out to Remake Mideast With Arab Enforcer : Hezbollah." The report is available at < https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/27/world/middleeast/hezbollah-iran-syria-israel-lebanon.html?utm_source=RC+World+Mideast+Memo&utm_campaign=2cbd10c1fc-RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_1630639ffc-2cbd10c1fc-84134069 > • Written by Ben Hubbard, the NYT report states : "For three decades, Hezbollah maintained a singular focus as a Lebanese military group fighting Israel. It built a network of bunkers and tunnels near Lebanon’s southern border, trained thousands of committed fighters to battle Israel’s army and built up an arsenal of rockets capable of striking far across the Jewish state. But as the Middle East has changed, with conflicts often having nothing to do with Israel flaring up around the region, Hezbollah has changed, too. It has rapidly expanded its realm of operations. It has sent legions of fighters to Syria. It has sent trainers to Iraq. It has backed rebels in Yemen. And it has helped organize a battalion of militants from Afghanistan that can fight almost anywhere." • Hezbollah is no longer just focused on Israel, but has become Iran's key proxy in the Middle East. Hubbard says : "Hezbollah is involved in nearly every fight that matters to Iran and, more significantly, has helped recruit, train and arm an array of new militant groups that are also advancing Iran’s agenda." Hezbollah was founded by the Ayatollahs in the 1980s after they took over Iran and drove out the Shah and his supporters, turning Iran into a revolutionary islamic state. In a way, says Hubbard, Hezbollah became the "prototype" for the kind of militias Iran is now backing around the region -- in Yemen, Iraq, Syria and Afghaniustan. Hezbollah has evolved into an arm of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, linking it to the growing network of powerful militias. Iran, a Farsi-speaking shiite power in an Arabic-speaking sunni region, uses Arabic-speaking Hezbollah "leaders and operatives who can work more easily in the Arab world. And for Hezbollah, the alliance means money for running an extensive social services network in Lebanon...as well as for weapons, technology and salaries for its tens of thousands of fighters....In Syria, Hezbollah militias have played a major role in propping up President Bashar al-Assad, an important Iranian ally. In Iraq, they are battling the Islamic State and promoting Iranian interests. In Yemen, they have taken over the capital city and dragged Saudi Arabia, an Iranian foe, into a costly quagmire. In Lebanon, they broadcast pro-Iranian news and build forces to fight Israel." Hezbollah, whose name is Arabic for Party of God, and its allies have deep ideological ties to Iran, says Hubbard. Most endorse vilayat-e-faqih, the concept that Iran’s supreme leader is both the highest political power in the country and the paramount religious authority. They also proclaim their goal of combating American and Israeli interests, arguing that they fill gaps left by weak governments and fight sunni jihadists like al-Qaida and ISIS. • But, says Hubbard : "Hezbollah intervention in Syria has reshaped the group. Its leaders have portrayed the war as a conspiracy by Israel, the United States and Saudi Arabia to use extremists to destroy Syria and weaken the pro-Iranian axis in the region. This, in their view, makes their intervention an extension of the 'resistance' against Israel....Hezbollah went to Syria aware that if Mr. Assad fell, it would lose its only Arab state sponsor and the weapons pipeline from Iran. So Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s secretary general, consulted with officials in Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, and they made a commitment to back Mr. Assad, according to Iranian officials and analysts close to the group. Since then, Hezbollah has deployed as many as 8,000 fighters to Syria at any one time, analysts say. Now, with the immediate threat to Mr. Assad gone, many suspect that Hezbollah will maintain a permanent presence in Syria." • • • IRAN AND HEZBOLLAH IN IRAQ. In recent years, says Hubbard, the world has focused on sunni jihadists who have traveled to Syria and Iraq to join ISIS : "But less attention has been paid as Iran fired up its own operation, recruiting, training and deploying fighters from across the shiite world. At the heart of that effort, Hezbollah has taken on increasingly senior roles in ventures once reserved for Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps." According to Hubbard, militiamen he interviewed in Iraq described how they had registered at recruitment offices for Iranian-backed militias to fight ISIS. Some were trained in Iraq, while others went to Iran for 15 days of drills before flying to Syria to fight. More experienced fighters took advanced courses with Iranian and Hezbollah commanders in Iran or Lebanon. Iran rallied the combatants with cash and religious appeals, creating "an extensive, Iranian-built network of loyal militants scattered across the Middle East." • Another long July New York Times report titled "Iran Dominates in Iraq After US ‘Handed the Country Over’ " written by Tim Arango < https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/15/world/middleeast/iran-iraq-iranian-power.html > notes that if one walks into "almost any market in Iraq...the shelves are filled with goods from Iran -- milk, yogurt, chicken. Turn on the television and channel after channel broadcasts programs sympathetic to Iran. A new building goes up? It is likely that the cement and bricks came from Iran. And when bored young Iraqi men take pills to get high, the illicit drugs are likely to have been smuggled across the porous Iranian border....Across the country, Iranian-sponsored militias are hard at work establishing a corridor to move men and guns to proxy forces in Syria and Lebanon. And in the halls of power in Baghdad, even the most senior Iraqi cabinet officials have been blessed, or bounced out, by Iran’s leadership." • Politically, Iran has a large number of allies in Iraq’s Parliament who can help secure its goals. Perhaps most crucial, according to Arango, the Iraqi parliament passed a law last year that effectively made shiite militias a permanent fixture of Iraq’s security forces. This ensures Iraqi funding for the groups while maintaining Iran’s control over some of the most powerful units. • The NYT describes Iran’s great project in eastern Iraq : a 15-mile stretch of dusty road, mostly gravel, through desert and scrub near the border in Diyala Province. But, says Arango, it is an important new part of Iran’s corridor through Iraq to Syria, and "what it carries -- shiite militiamen, Iranian delegations, trade goods and military supplies -- is its most valuable feature. Analysts and Iranian officials say Iran’s key ambition is to exploit the chaos of the region to grow its influence in Iraq and beyond. Eventually, analysts say, Iran could use the corridor to ship weapons and supplies to proxies in Syria...and to Lebanon and its ally Hezbollah." • • • CAN TRUMP MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN IRAQ? Nijat al-Taie, a sunni member of the provincial council and an outspoken critic of Iran, which she calls the instigator of several assassination attempts against her, told Arango : “They [Iran] achieved their goals on the ground. America didn’t protect Iraq. They just toppled the regime and handed the country over to Iran.” But, Iran’s pre-eminence in the Iraqi south has produced resentment. Iraqi shiites share a faith with Iran, but they also hold close their other identities as Iraqis and Arabs. “Iraq belongs to the Arab League, not to Iran,” according to Sheikh Fadhil al-Bidayri, a cleric at the religious seminary in Najaf. “Shiites are a majority in Iraq, but a minority in the world. As long as the Iranian government is controlling the Iraqi government, we don’t have a chance.” • Iran’s emphasis on defending the shiite faith has led some analysts to conclude that its ultimate goal is to bring about an Iranian-style theocracy in Iraq. But there is a pervasive sense that it would not work in Iraq, which has a much larger native sunni population and tradition -- even Iraq’s shiite clerics in Najaf, including Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the world’s pre-eminent shiite spiritual leader, oppose the Iranian system. • So does Iraq's prime minister, Haidar al-Abadi, a shiite who sides with the United States against Iran's attempted hegemony over Iraq. Al-Abadi is in a difficult position. If he makes any move that can be seen as confrontational toward Iran, or as positioning himself closer to the United States, it could place a cloud over his political future. But, al-Abadi, who took office in 2014 with the support of both the United States and Iran, has seemed bolder in his pushback against Iranian pressure since President Trump took office. Some analyst see an American troop commitment as a chance to revisit the 2011 Obama withdrawal of United States forces that seemingly opened a door for Iran. Iraqi officials and others warned Washington that if the Americans left, then Iran would fill the vacuum. Ryan C. Crocker, American ambassador in Iraq from 2007 to 2009, told the NYT's Arango that if the United States leaves again after ISIS is defeated, “it would be effectively just giving the Iranians a free rein.” But many Iraqis say the Iranians already have free rein. And while the Trump administration has indicated that it will pay closer attention to Iraq as a means to counter Iran, the question is whether it is too late. • • • IRAN CONDEMNS THE US PRESENCE IN THE REGION. Iran Front Page News -- an Iranian mouthpiece -- on Wednesdat touted the fact, without naming him, that President Obama paid Iran $1.7 billion the notorious 'non-ransom.' The report makes it seem that the payment was recent and made to pay US military debts, while the article's real purpose was to condemn America's regional presence. It quoted General Reza Tala’i-Nik's TV interview on Tuesday, in which he pointed to the US military presence in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman, denouncing it as “violation of the international law. The security of the Persian Gulf can only be provided through the participation of its littoral states and regional cooperation, as presence of foreign sides has merely disrupted security in the region.” • • • THE US AND ISRAEL VS. IRAN AND HEZBOLLAH. The Washington Institute published a paper on Monday by Hanin Ghaddar, a veteran Lebanese journalist and researcher, titled "Improving the Quality of US Middle East Policy : A War with Hezbollah Would Essentially Mean War with Iran This Time Around." Ghaddar says a Hezbollah conflict with Israel might be inevitable, but the context has become more complicated than ever for both sides : "Convinced that Hezbollah has strong control over Lebanon's state institutions, Israel is now threatening to target Lebanon's infrastructure, institutions and army, while the group is vowing to attack Israel's nuclear facilities and cities. There is no doubt that Hezbollah's build-up of precision weapons presents a serious threat to Israel....if Iran is not contained in Syria and Hezbollah's threat to Israel from both Lebanon and the Golan Heights is not dealt with, the next war between Israel and Hezbollah may well be inevitable (though at present, not necessarily imminent)." Hezbollah's arsenal is estimated to have grown from 33,000 rockets and missiles before 2006 to 150,000 today -- they are more advanced weapons that would cause serious damage to Israel. Perhaps even more importantly, given that Hezbollah now controls more ground in Syria, Israel might find itself fighting two or more fronts in the next war and involved in confrontation with all the shiite militias in Syria, not just Hezbollah. Under the command of Iran's Quds Force, Hezbollah is today leading tens of thousands of Shiite fighters from Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Yemen....In other words, the next war could actually be a war between Israel and Iran." Hezbollah has more than 100,000 rockets and missiles pointed at Israel, in addition to 30,000 trained fighters and a smaller number of reservists, according to Brigadier General Ram Yavne, the commander of the Israeli Army’s strategic division. Israel also says Hezbollah is so integrated into the Lebanese state that it may not differentiate between the two in a new war. But, for now, say some experts, Hezbollah appears to be avoiding escalation with Israel. • And, what is Iran doing at home while Hezbollah and Quds stir the pot elsewhere?? • • • IRAN TESTS ITS ICBM DEFENSE SYSTEM. While everybody is focused on North Korea's nuclear test on Sunday -- a whopper that measured 6.3 on the magnitude scale and that the BBC says caused "landslides," North Korea's partner in crime, Iran, was also busy -- testing its own intercontinental ballistic missile technology. We pretty much have to go to international news sources to get this news, because US news media are just too overloaded with North Korea and hurricanes to think about what's going on in the Middle East. But, the UK Independent reported on Monday that the Iran state media has stated : "Iran has tested its first ever long-range missile defense system amid tensions with the US over its weapons program." Farzad Esmaili, head of the Revolutionary Guards’ air defenses, told IRIB in an interview on Sunday that work on the new Bavar 373 system is underway and the system is expected to be fully functional by March 2018. The Express says : "By that time, the Russian S-300, which was first produced in 1978, will be outdated and irrelevant. Its systems are poor, its programming is slow, and it does not read just quickly or well. The Russians’ new version, the S-400, rectified all those problems." Teheran purchased the Russian S-300 system in 2010, but international sanctions meant the import of parts was suspended for years. The system went online in March this year after the 2015 nuclear deal lifted the measures that had crippled the Iranian economy in return for curbs on Iran’s nuclear program. The Bavar 373 system is designed to intercept long range, or ballistic, weaponry. • The Bavar 373, according to the UK Express, has a religious significance for Iranians -- Bavar means “believe” in Farsi, the Persian language, and 373 is the numerical value of Mohammed’s name in Arabic, known as Abjad; Abjadiyah means alphabet in Arabic; like in all ancient languages, Arabic letters correspond to numbers. Esmaili says : "The system is made completely in Iran and some of its parts are different from the S-300. All of its sub-systems have been completed and its missile tests have been conducted." The new Bavar 373 long range, mobile, anti-missile defense system, entirely manufactured in Iran, requires no support from outside sources. The Bavar 373 is almost an exact replica of the S-300. By the time the sanctions against Iran were lifted in March 2015 and Russia was able to deliver the rest of the S-300 order, Iran was nearly finished with the Bavar 373 project, but Iran decided to use the Russian S-300 in addition to their own Bavar 373. • Micah Halpern wrote in the Express : " Israel is carefully watching Iran develop its military arsenal. They did not raise the flag when Russia resumed delivering S-300s. They did not go public with their displeasure when the Bavar 373 was introduced. This atypical behavior can be explained by one thing : Israel has found a way to game the S-300. Gaming military systems is not a new sport for Israel. They did it on September 7, 2009, when they successfully attacked the Syrian nuclear plant. The operators of the Russian anti-missile systems saw a single plane on their screen, then a dozen, and then a swarm. Next thing they knew, their entire screen was covered with Israeli aircraft. The operators assumed it was a malfunction. It didn’t dawn on them that it was an attack that would render the atomic plant unusable." But, says Halpern : "Interestingly, though Iran has been vocal about the Bavar 373, the Western world has shown little interest. Russian news, Israeli news and Iranian news covered it. These countries all have obvious stake in the game. But, it is Pakistani press, some British outlets, and serious military sites like Jane’s that cover it. For Iran, this is perfect. They will interpret this as a green light to proceed." • Halpern adds : "Iran is not violating the nuclear deal by creating these weapons. During the embargo, it was forbidden to sell weapons to Iran. Now, after the deal, they are severely limited in their nuclear, biological and chemical weapons production. However, the Bavar 373, like the S-300, is a defensive weapon. Iran is not prohibited from creating these weapons, and there is no law against importing or exporting them to Iran. Iran understands that North Korea has unintentionally given them the best present they could ask for : They have diverted the world’s attention. Because the world is preoccupied with North Korea, Iran can move ahead, unchallenged and unchecked. And that is exactly what it will do." • • • IRAN'S ICBM PROGRAM. Additionally, the UK Independent reported last weekend that Amir Hatami, Iran’s new defense minister, said the country has “a specific plan to boost missile power,” which he hopes will increase “the combat capabilities of Iran’s ballistic and cruise missiles” over the next four years. Last month the Iranian parliament voted to shore up its ballistic missile program and the international reach of its paramilitary Revolutionary Guard with extra spending in retaliation for new ballistics-related sanctions slapped on Iran by the Trump administration. While the US has admitted that Iran is complying with the terms of the 2015 nuclear deal, the White House has insisted that Teheran will face consequences for the recent ballistics tests, which it says breach the “spirit” of the agreement reached under Barack Obama. • The wording of the UN resolution that endorsed the nuclear deal called upon Iran not to “undertake any activity related to ballistic missiles designed to be capable of delivering nuclear weapons, including launches using such ballistic missile technology.” That is the crux of the Trump administration's argument that Iran is not complying with the nuclear deal and that it should be abrogated. President Trump has imposed new financial penalties on individuals related to terror-related offenses, and imposed a travel ban for citizens of Iran and six other Moslem countries, which has become the subject of intense legal battles. Iran, in return, temporarily banned US citizens from travelling to the country, and conducted a ballistic missiles test in January, and another in July. Former Secretary of State John Kerry said the Iran nuclear deal “made the world a safer place” because of the time required for Iran to re-boot its nuclear weaponry programs. But, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani recently warned that his country’s abandoned nuclear program could be restarted “within hours” if US “threats and sanctions” continue. And, to close the loop on Kerry, Israel Today reported on Thursday : "Israel warned former US President Barack Obama that Iran wouldn't honor the nuclear arms deal he brokered with the Islamic Republic. The Ayatollahs and their elected puppets went through the motions, but never truly fulfilled the stipulations of the agreement. The West, fearful of escalating tensions, turned a blind eye to numerous violations. But that only kicked the can down the road, as the Americans say. Now, top Iranian officials are openly boasting of successfully playing the West, while retaining the ability to restart their nuclear arms program at a moment's notice. In an August 22 interview on Iran's IRINN TV, the head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, Ali Akbar Salehi, revealed that his people had poured cement into a few external pipes at the Arak nuclear reactor in order to fool international inspectors, but had not disabled its core. 'If we want to, we can start enriching uranium to 20% within five days, and that is very significant,' said Salehi." • • • THE NUCLEAR DEAL. US Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley recently implied that Iran’s non-nuclear policies – primarily military intervention in Middle East conflicts on the side of US adversaries and continued development of ballistic missiles -- undercuts the utility of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The JCPOA, which went into full implementation in January 2016, does not eliminate Iran’s nuclear program but does impose restrictions; but, we now have learned form Iran itself that Iran can auicklt switch back on it programs to develop nuclear weapons. How did the International Atomic Energy Agency, the UN nuclear watchdog -- which continues to insist that Iran has abided by the restrictions, such as a drastic reduction in operating centrifuges, limits on the level of uranium enrichment, no enrichment at an underground facility and the dismantling of a heavy water reactor that could have yielded plutonium, another potential bomb fuel -- miss the cement in the pipes??? • Iran says it expects the US to "violate the nuclear deal, but the world is against it." The Head of Strategic Research Center at the Expediency Council, Ali Akbar Velayati, said in a press conference on Wednesday, that access to Iran's military sites is not permissible : "We are informed that the US officials have coducted frequent visits to the international nuclear watchdog, and talks have been held with the chief of the body....Nobody is allowed to visit Iran's military sites. Iran's military sites have to do with the country's national security." Haley on Tuesday repeatedly claimed that 'hundreds' of sites in Iran are suspicious, but the UN has no access to them. Referring to anti-Iran remarks by the US ambassador, he said that the US has no influence in the region, as they are trying to violate the JCPOA, but the world is standing against it. Velayati also pointed to the recent continuous achievements by the Iraqi and Syrian forces and anticipated that more victories and advances are coming in the near future in recapturing areas from the terrorist group Daesh (ISIS) in the two countries. He was referring to the recent Syrian troop break of the two-year siege on the eastern town of Deir ez-Zor. • • • DEAR READERS, in a comment that sounded a lot like the North Korean Dear Leader, Iran's state media outlet, IRNA, reported that the Commander of the Iranian Army's Ground Force Brigadier General Kiumars Heidari said this week that the Iranian armed forces are ready "to ruin enemies if they show silliness." Heidari said that nothing can threaten the country when the Iranian armed forces enjoy such readiness. • And, since Iran and North Korea are the Janus faces of the terrorist axis determined to use nuclear blackmail against the West and install dictatorial regimes as widely as possible, and since many experts believe a confrontation with North Korea is likely within the next few years, we cannot be surprised if the confrontatin involves Iran. • We cannot be certain that the experts are right. But, whatever the "truth" may be, we can be sure of several things -- if North Korea attacks, or is attacked, it will use its nuclear arsenal and that will give its partner in evil, Iran, a window of opportunity to launch a nuclear attack against Israel or Saudi Arabia, or even Europe, if the Iranian ICBMs are up and running. And, we can be sure that Israel will retaliate -- if it does not, more likely, get its defense system missiles into the air to stop the Iranian nuclear aggression. Finally, we can be sure that the US will not be able to call on the Security Council or any other group except NATO to intervene. America will be in the crosshairs of a North Korean ICBM armed with a nuclear warhead. World War III will have begun, and like Europe in World War II, no civlians will be spared. • An article in the Washington Post in early 2008 reported that President Vladimir Putin said Russia could aim nuclear missiles at Ukraine if Russia's neighbor and former fraternal republic in the Soviet Union joined the NATO alliance and hosted elements of a US missile defense system. Putin said at his 2008 news conference with Ukraine's then-president Viktor Yushchenko : "It is horrible to say and even horrible to think that, in response to the deployment of such facilities in Ukrainian territory, which cannot theoretically be ruled out, Russia could target its missile systems at Ukraine. Imagine this just for a second." Does Putin or Khamenei or Kim Jong-un or Xi Ping have any idea what the world would become if a worldwide nuclear war were unleashed?? • We know the answer to that question is that they seem not to care. So, while President Trump and his military are busy ending the ISIS reign of terror in the Middle East, staying the course this time in Iraq, and bolstering the US position in Afghanistan, it also falls to President Trump, Defense Secretary Mattis -- and America's NATO allies if they can be shaken out of their 'Chamberlain trance' -- to act before they lose control of the NK-Iran scenario and become the acted-upon.