The Turkish Referendum : A Complex World Just Got a Little More Complex

Dear readers, sorry for the early post today. Things will be back to normal tomorrow. • • • The referendum victory of Trukish President Tayyip Erdogan is far from reassuring. • • • TURKEY FACES PROFOUND ANTI-DEMOCRATIC CHANGE. Reuters reported from Ankara shortly after midnight that President Tayyip Erdogan had declared victory in the Sunday referendum that "grants him sweeping powers in the biggest overhaul of modern Turkish politics, but opponents said the vote was marred by irregularities and they would challenge its result." Turkey's mainly Kurdish southeast and its three biggest cities -- Ankara, Istanbul and Izmir -- rejected the plans. Erdogan said 25 million people had supported the proposal with the "Yes" vote at 51.5%. The change will replace Turkey's parliamentary system with an all-powerful presidency and abolish the office of prime minister. The 51.5% vote fell short of the decisive victory for which Erdogan and the ruling Justice and Development AK Party (AKP) that he founded had aggressively campaigned. But, thousands of flag-waving supporters rallied in Ankara and Istanbul in celebration. Once confirmed, moves will begin to implement the 18-article reform package put forward by the AKP, including : • Abolishing the post of prime minister and replacing it with a powerful executive president with powers to rule by decree. • Giving the president the power to appoint a cabinet and some senior judges. • Curbing the power of parliament to scrutinize legislation or to counter presidential removal of senior civil servants. • Resetting term limits for the president, meaning Erdogan could serve until 2029 if he wins elections in 2019 and 2024. Erdogan indicated he would use his new powers to "immediately" pursue a referendum on the restoration of the death penalty in Turkey, a move that will eliminate any possibility of Turkey becoming part of the European Union. He repeated his desire to legalize the death penalty Monday as crowds chanted: "We want capital punishment." Ahmet Kasim Han, an associate professor at Kadir Has University in Istanbul, said the result would "profoundly change the way the country is governed." Critics of the proposals say they give overly broad powers to the president, Han said. Supporters of the "Yes" result argue the changes are justified given the "existential threat" on the country's southern borders with Iraq and Syria, along with last summer's attempted coup, he added. • • • ERDOGAN MANIA. Erdogan addressed Turkish crowds after declaring the referendum had been accepted : "For the first time in the history of the Republic, we are changing our ruling system through civil politics," Erdogan said, referring to military coups which had marred Turkish politics for decades. "That is why it is very significant." • Erdogan himself survived a failed coup attempt last July, responding with a crackdown purge that has seen 47,000 people detained and 120,000 sacked or suspended from their jobs. In Ankara, where Prime Minister Binali Yildirim addressed cheering supporters, convoys of cars honking horns clogged a main avenue as they headed towards the AKP headquarters, their passengers waving flags from the windows. • • • THE OPPOSITION. But the head of the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), Kemal Kilicdaroglu, said the legitimacy of the referendum was open to question. The party earlier said it would demand a recount of up to 60 percent of the votes after Turkey's High Electoral Board (YSK) announced it would count ballots which had not been stamped by its officials as valid unless they could be proved fraudulent. Kilicdaroglu has accused Erdogan of seeking a "one-man regime", and said the proposed changes would put the country in danger. In some affluent neighborhoods in Istanbul, people took to the streets in protest while others banged pots and pans at home -- a sign of dissent that was widespread during anti-Erdogan protests in 2013. In Istanbul's Besiktas neighborhood, more than 300 protesters brought traffic on a main street to a standstill, a Reuters cameraman said. In Ankara, scuffles between AKP and opposition supporters broke out near the headquarters of the CHP. • • • EUROPEAN CONCERNS. European politicians, who have had increasingly difficult relations with Turkey, expressed concern. The European Commission, the executive body of the European Union, said the close result meant that Ankara should seek "the broadest national consensus" in implementing the vote. • Relations hit a low during the referendum campaign when EU countries, including Germany and the Netherlands, barred Turkish ministers from holding rallies in support of the changes. Erdogan called the moves "Nazi acts" and said Turkey could reconsider ties with the EU after many years of seeking EU membership. Former Belgian prime minister Guy Verhofstadt, who heads the liberal group of MEPs in the European Parliament, said Erdogan needed to change course, noting the result was very tight : "If Erdogan persists, EU should stop accession talks." he said. As relations between Turkey and the EU deteriorate, the 2016 EU deal under which Turkey has curbed the flow of migrants -- mainly refugees from wars in Syria and Iraq -- into the bloc could be jeopardized, putting Eurpean countries again at the receiving end of renewed waves of refugees and the economic migrants moving with them. • • • AN UNFAIR VOTING PROCESS. International election monitors -- a partnership of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe and the Council for Europe -- have delivered a scathing verdict on the conduct of Turkey's controversial referendum. Monitors said the referendum took place on an "unlevel playing field" with the "Yes" campaign dominating media coverage. Voters were not provided with adequate information, opposition voices were muzzled and the rules were changed at the last minute. Less than 24 hours after Erdogan declared victory, Tana de Zulueta, head of the monitoring mission, offered a harsh analysis on the way the referendum was conducted. In a damning statement, she said: "The legal framework for the referendum neither sufficiently provides for impartial coverage nor guarantees eligible political parties equal access to public media." The ruling party and the president were given preference in the allocation of free airtime, she said. The campaign framework was described as "restrictive" and "imbalanced" because of the involvement of Erdogan and other national and local public figures in the "Yes" campaign. De Zulueta also said that monitors saw "No" supporters subjected to police intervention at events while also being equated to terrorists by senior officials in the "Yes" camp, during a fractious campaign period. Monitors also said that the change in ballot validity rules was deemed to have undermined "an important safeguard and contradicted the law." The High Electoral Board had at first said it would not accept ballots that were missing ballot commission stamps. But it announced a changed of course after voting was underway Sunday, saying it would accept unstamped ballots "unless they are proven to have been brought from outside." That decision will likely form the basis for any official challenge. Bulent Tezcan, deputy chairman of the CHP, said his party would contest the result in Turkey's courts, and, if necessary, the European Court of Human Rights. • Yet, despite a state of emergency and a widespread crackdown on dissent, Erdogan succeeded in persuading only 51.5% of voters to back his constitutional upheaval, which cements a years-long effort by Erdogan to consolidate his position. After serving as prime minister for nearly a decade, he took over as president in 2014 and through force of personality turned a largely ceremonial role into a de facto head of government. A failed coup last year allowed him to turn up the heat on opposition voices in the run-up to Sunday's referendum. The "No" campaign said it faced intimidation and threats of violence, while opposition figures and journalists were jailed. The narrowness of the result, coupled with allegations of irregularities, sets the stage for further instability. • • • ERDOGAN HAS DIVIDED TURKEY AND ALIENATED EUROPE. The referendum has bitterly divided Turkey. Erdogan and his supporters say the changes are needed to amend the current constitution, written by generals following a 1980 military coup, and to confront the security and political challenges Turkey faces, while avoiding the fragile coalition governments of the past. One "Yes" voter told Reuters : "This is our opportunity to take back control of our country. I don't think one-man rule is such a scary thing. Turkey has been ruled in the past by one man," he said, referring to modern Turkey's founder Mustafa Kemal Ataturk." But, opponents say it is a step towards greater authoritarianism. Erdogan and the AKP enjoyed a disproportionate share of media coverage in the buildup to the vote while the leaders of the pro-Kurdish People's Democratic Party (HDP), which opposes the changes, have been in jail for months. A "No" voter told Reuters : "I voted 'No' because I don't want this whole country and its legislative, executive and judiciary ruled by one man." • German Chancellor Angela Merkel, largely responsible for the deal under which Turkey is being paid to prevent refugees from entering the EU, said the result showed : "Turkish society is deeply divided." Merkel called for the Turkish government to engage in "respectful dialogue" with all political entities. In a joint statement with German Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel, she called on the Turkish government to "address concerns" about the voting process. • The office of the French President, Francois Hollande, warned that any referendum in Turkey on the reinstatement of the death penalty would constitute a break with EU values and commitments. • The EU officially reacted with caution. "We are awaiting the assessment of the OSCE/ODIHR International Observation Mission, also with regard to alleged irregularities," a statement issued by EU President Jean-Claude Juncker and other ranking officials said, "The constitutional amendments, and especially their practical implementation, will be assessed in light of Turkey's obligations as a European Union candidate country." The Council of Europe, a human rights organization that promotes European values and of which Turkey is a member, said the tight vote meant the country would have to proceed with caution. Council Secretary General Thorbjorn Jagland said : "In view of the close result the Turkish leadership should consider the next steps carefully. It is of utmost importance to secure the independence of the judiciary in line with the principle of rule of law enshrined in the European Convention on Human Rights. The Council of Europe, of which Turkey is a full member, stands ready to support the country in this process." • • • DEAR READERS, it is clear the Erdogan knew what the EU reaction would be long before Sunday's referendum took place. He was and is no longer interested in the EU. His agenda has turned toward the role of Turkey in the Middle East power structure. He sees the Kurds as a serious threat to his rule and as a force to be eliminated on Turkey's border with Syria. He wants to oust Syria's al-Assad and suppress the influence of Russia and Iran in Syria and Iraq. He wants a radical islamic state in Turkey. • At least 51% of Turkish voters agree. As the results came in, thousands of the president's supporters converged at the Ankara headquarters of the AKP. Waving flags they shouted : "Tell us to kill, we will kill. Tell us to die, we will die. Erdogan, Erdogan, Erdogan." Aysel Can, a member of the AKP's women's branch, said, "For a strong Islamic state, for a strong Middle East, Turkey had to switch to this executive presidency system. This is a message to the world to shut up; Turkey is getting stronger. America has to know this, too. We are the voice, we are the ears, we are everything for the Middle East." • Those who oppose Erdogan are in for hard times as he slowly takes Turkey toward strongman rule. The idea that democracy can survive under Erdogan is laughable. The "No" voters were devastated by the result. "I'm sad, I cried all night," one "no" voter told CNN, who like many preferred not to give their name for fear of retribution. "It's really sad that had to do this voting, even. In 15 years we saw that radical Islam has come to power and we've ended up with (this) dictatorship." David Phillips of the Institute for the Study of Human Rights at Columbia University said : “Turkey’s western orientation is finished. There’s nothing to suggest that Erdogan will suddenly be more conciliatory. There’s little hope that the HDP members of parliament will be released; the security operations in the south-east will continue and the round-up of Gulenists [blamed for the failed coup] will continue.” • In a taste of what is to come for Turkey, during the purge, Amnesty International claimed that during the purge, officials held those arrested without any access to lawyers or families. The officials also beat, tortured, and raped detainees. Amnesty International reported : "A person on duty at the Ankara Police Headquarters sports hall saw a detainee with severe wounds consistent with having been beaten, including a large swelling on his head. The detainee could not stand up or focus his eyes and he eventually lost consciousness. While in some cases detainees were afforded limited medical assistance, police refused to allow this detainee essential medical treatment despite his severe injuries. The interviewee heard one police doctor on duty say : 'Let him die. We will say he came to us dead.' ” Turkish authorities shut down 130 media outlets and arrested 47 journalists. After the media, authorities targeted those in the academics. By the end of July, the government sacked 15,200 teachers, canceled 21,000 licenses at private schools, and asked deans at universities to leave. The academic purge continued for the rest of 2016. • The situation in Turkey is a bitter pill for the EU that refused to take serious steps to integrate Turkey into the EU when democracy was still alive in the country, despite US efforts to persuade Europe to move on the issue. Now, there is a chasm in Turkey-EU relations and Turkey is a dictatorship in the making. And, that creates a huge question to the US and NATO : how to continue to cooperate militarily with a Turkey that is a radical islamic state. America and its sunni allies, and NATO, have not yet found a replacement for Turkish airbases and airspace. Severing ties with Erdogan would only serve to drive Turkey further and faster into radical Islam. This very complex world just got a little more complex.