Iranian and North Korean Missile Tests Threaten World Security as Trump and Mattis Respond

The world's bad guys are not just sitting around waiting for the Progressive-Democrat-media cabal against President Trump to fizzle out. They're busy threatening the security of everyone. Senator Tom Cotton said on Monday : “Between North Korea’s saber-rattling and Iran’s willful defiance, we certainly don’t lack for evidence of these rogue regime’s intentions. This is why we need to develop a strong missile-defense system and to take a harder line toward these regimes. No amount of words, however clear or forceful, will prevent this kind of aggression; only firm action to defend America and our allies will stop them in their tracks." • • • IRAN BALLISTIC MISSILES. Fox News reported Monday that the pattern of provocative actions by Iran continued with last weekend's test-firing of a pair of ballistic missiles and sending fast-attack vessels close to a US Navy ship in the Strait of Hormuz, as confirmed by US officials. One of Iran's ballistic missile tests was successful, according to US officials who talked to Fox News. The missile destroyed a floating barge 155 miles away. The launches of the Fateh-110 short-range ballistic missiles were the first tests of the missile in two years, one official said. Fox said : "It was not immediately clear if this was the first successful test at sea -- raising concerns for the US Navy, which operates warships in the area, one of which had an 'unsafe and unprofessional' interaction with Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps boats on Saturday." The IRGC boats approached to within 600 yard of the tracking ship USNS Invincible and then stopped, officials confirmed to Fox News. The Invincible was accompanied by three ships from the British Royal Navy and all four ships were forced to change course, both BBC and Reuters reported. According to one official, Iran launched its two short-range ballistic missiles from an IRGC base in Bandar-e-Jask, in southeastern Iran. The first missile was fired on Saturday, but missed its target, landing “in the vicinity,” one official told Fox News. A day later, Iran made another attempt and was successful. • The Iranian Fateh-110 Mod 3 has a new “active seeker,” to help the missile locate ships at sea, according to one official : "It's a concern based on the range and that one of the missiles worked." Fox reported that "two years ago, Iranian cruise missiles destroyed a large barge designed to look like an American aircraft carrier. Iranian state-television broadcast the images publicly at the time." The new Iranian short-range ballistic missile launches come a week after Iran successfully test-fired Russian surface-to-air missiles, part of the S-300 air defense system Russia sent to Iran recently. According to the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, Iran has conducted as many as 14 ballistic missile launches since the landmark nuclear agreement in July 2015. A senior US military official told Fox News that Iran had made great advances in its ballistic missile program over the past decade. Late last month, Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff General Joseph Dunford said Iran’s behavior had not changed since the White House put the Islamic Republic “on notice” following Iran’s successful intermediate-range ballistic missile test-launch in late January. • • • AYATOLLAH KHAMENEI SEES A NEW ERA. The American Thinker published an article on February 25 that said : "Following a rocky first month in Trump-Iran relations, it’s significant that Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has chosen to maintain a substantially low profile. With the threat of vast changes in Washington, Khamenei also knows he cannot show weakness to his dwindling social base already terrified of major changes in the new US administration’s policies vis-à-vis Iran following Obama’s eight years of appeasement. In recent remarks, Khamenei even said there is no difference between the Obama and Trump administrations (!) and 'the real war is the economic war, the sanctions war.' " The article concluded that Khamenei knows he must tread more softly now that the soft Obama presidency has given way to the more forceful Trump presidency. "During the Obama years, Khamenei himself used strong terms in threatening American interests across the globe. He went as far as saying that his regime would 'raze' Haifa and Tel Aviv to the ground, wasting no time in lashing out at any threats," and showing how Obama’s appeasement policy failed. Now that Khamenei "is receiving 'on notice' level warnings from Washington, he is in fact completely terrified to use any strong terms. However, he is resorting to a new tactic of claiming there being 'no difference' between the Obama and Trump administrations. From January 20th onward, Khamenei has repeatedly made such remarks about the two administrations." But, American Thinker believes that the elimination of sanctions by Obama remains a necessary element for Iran if it is to take its place in the international community and prosper : "...we are witnessing that Teheran’s lobbies, and those who capitalized on massive economic gains rendered through the appeasement policy, are desperately speaking out against any sanctions, and especially the possible designation of the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) as a foreign terrorist organization. The IRGC controls much of Iran’s economy, and yet Teheran’s lobbies have gone the distance in claiming its blacklisting will threaten America’s interests in Iraq and other countries hosting US bases, and also endangering so-called 'moderates' in the face of 'hardliners.' ” • That latter bit is fake news, Ayatollah-style. In an American Thinker article on March 5, titled Iran in Crisis, Heshmat Alavi -- who bears an ancient Iranian name and is a political and rights activist focusing on Iran, ranging from human rights violations, social crackdown, the regime’s support for terrorism and meddling in foreign countries, and the controversial nuclear program -- notes that protests and crises are beginning to cripple Iran : "The recent dust storms that wreaked havoc in southwest Iran signaled only one of the many crises the mullahs are facing less than three months before critical elections. Teheran has been hit with severe blows during the Munich Security Conference, contrasting interests with Russia, the recent escalating row with Turkey, and most importantly, a new US administration in Washington. These crises have crippling effects on the mullahs’ apparatus, especially at a time when Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei sees his regime facing a changing balance of power in the international community, and is faced with a major decision of selecting the regime’s so-called president." Alavi says that Iran sent Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif to the Munich Security Conference "with a series of objectives in mind, only to face a completely unexpected scene. US Vice President Mike Pence described Iran as the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism. Saudi Arabia Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir said the mullahs are the source of threats and instability throughout the Middle East. Turkey went one step further and said Teheran is the heart of sectarianism and spreads such plots across the region, and all traces in Syria lead to Iran’s terrorism and sectarian measures." And, Russia has now decided to support a "safe zone" in Syria, highlighting the stress in the Russia-Iran relationship and thwarting Iran's goal of total hegemony over the al-Assad regime, according to Alavi, who adds : "Moscow is also ready to sacrifice its interests in Syria in a larger and more suitable bargain with the Trump administration over far more important global interests." Turkey, is also standing in the way of Iran's goals for Syria. Teheran considers Trukey’s military in Iraq and Syria as a major obstacle in its effort to expand its regional influence. And, President Trump’s strong approach to Iran and the possibility that he will support the establishment of a Turkish-administered northern Syria "safe zone" may be influencing Erdogan, making him realize that the new Trump administration intends to adopt a much more aggressive stance against Teheran. This is another sign of changing tides brewing troubles for Iran’s Ayatollah. Alavi's conclusion : "This regime understands the language of force very carefully. And yet, there is no need to use military force to inflict a significant blow and make Teheran understand [that] the international community means business. Blacklisting Iran’s IRGC as a terrorist organization by the US at this timing would be the nail in the coffin for the mullahs." • • • NORTH KOREA LAUNCHES BALLISTIC MISSILES. North Korea has launched four ballistic missiles, three of which landed in Japanese waters. Two senior US defense officials told NBC News on Monday that North Korea actually fired five missiles, not four, but that one of them failed to launch. The Washington Post wrote : "North Korea was practicing to strike United States military bases in Japan with its latest barrage of missiles, state media in Pyongyang reported Tuesday, and it appears to be trying to outsmart a new American antimissile battery being deployed to South Korea by firing multiple rockets at once. Kim Jong Un presided over Monday’s launch...'feasting his eyes on the trails of ballistic rockets,' the Korean Central News Agency reported in a statement that analysts called a 'brazen declaration' of the country’s intent to strike enemies with a nuclear weapon if it came under attack. 'If the United States or South Korea fires even a single flame inside North Korean territory, we will demolish the origin of the invasion and provocation with a nuclear tipped missile,' the KCNA statement said." • The four ballistic missiles fired Monday morning were launched by the elite Hwasong ballistic missile division “tasked to strike the bases of the US imperialist aggressor forces in Japan,” KCNA said. The United States has numerous military bases and about 54,000 military personnel stationed in Japan, under its post-WWII security alliance. The WP reported : "Three of the four missiles flew about 600 miles over North Korea and landed in the sea, within Japan’s exclusive economic zone off the Oga Peninsula in Akita prefecture, home to a Japanese self-defense forces base. The fourth fell just outside the zone....North Korea did not say what kind of missiles it had fired, but after poring over photos released by state media, analysts at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in California said they were extended-range Scuds capable of flying more than 600 miles. North Korea has tested these types of missiles before, so the point of Monday’s launches was not to see if the rockets would fly, but to test how quickly the unit could set them up and deploy them, said Jeffrey Lewis, director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the Middlebury Institute. 'They want to know if they can get these missiles out into the field rapidly and deploy them all at once,' Lewis said. 'They are practicing launching a nuclear-armed missile and hitting targets in Japan as if this was a real war.' ” The US Strategic Command said it had determined the missile launch “did not pose a threat to North America.” • The WP says : "This appeared to be a further challenge to the United States and South Korea, which said Tuesday that it had started deploying the advanced antimissile battery called Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or THAAD, designed to protect the region against North Korea’s rockets. The first parts of the THAAD system arrived Monday at the Osan air ase south of Seoul, South Korea’s Defense Ministry said. But THAAD would have difficulty intercepting four missiles launched at the same time, analysts said." And, the WP seemed to suggest that because the Osan air base is only 300 miles from the missile launch site in North Korea, THAAD defenses would not be able to respond in time to stop them. • North Korea appears to be making progress on its missile program and has a declared goal of developing an ICBM capable of reaching the West Coast of the United States. It has also conducted five nuclear tests and claims to be able to miniaturize a warhead so that it could be fitted onto a missile. But, it has not yet proven that it can either attach a warhead to a missile or deliver a missile to a target -- which would involve mastering the difficult step of reentry. • Joshua Pollack, editor of the Nonproliferation Review, told the Washington Post : "We might infer that the choice of Japan as a target might be based on a desire to do something new compared to last year -- raising the stakes of the [current joint US-South Korea military] exercises -- but also on [Japanese Prime Minister] Abe’s visit to the US and joint appearances with Trump.” North Korea launched a medium-range missile in February -- its first since Trump was elected -- while the President was hosting Abe for dinner at his Mar-a-Lago Club in Florida. • President Trump spoke by phone with Abe and South Korea’s acting president, Hwang Kyo-ahn, Tuesday morning. Prime Minister Abe told reporters in Tokyo : “Both Japan and the US confirmed that this North Korean missile launch was a clear violation of UN Security Council resolutions and was an obvious challenge to the region and the international community.” Abe said that the North Korean threat had “reached a new stage.” • In New York, a spokesman for UN Secretary-General António Guterres said he condemned the actions, which “violate Security Council resolutions and seriously undermine regional peace and stability.” Japan and the US have called for an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council on the North Korea missile launch. The UNSC will meet on Wednesday. North Korea is banned from testing any ballistic missile technology under a set of UN resolutions. But, it has threatened to conduct more missile tests in response to the annual two-month joint military exercise between South Korea and Washington that will go on through April. • • • THE THAAD SYSTEM. On Tuesday, NBC News reported that US officials confirmed the US has already begun shipping the THAAD anti-missile system to South Korea. The "first elements" of the THAAD system have already arrived in South Korea, US defense officials told NBC News on Monday, just hours after Hwang Kyo-ahn, South Korea's acting president and prime minister, urged the United States to deploy it as soon as possible, saying the consequences of a nuclear-armed North Korea would be "horrible and beyond imagination." Other THAAD systems are already active in Hawaii and Guam to defend against North Korea, but the missile shield hadn't yet been deployed to South Korea -- largely because China has denounced its placement in South Korea as a "clear, present and substantive threat to China's security interests." White House press secretary Sean Spicer confirmed the deployment Monday when he told reporters that the United States was "taking steps to enhance our ability to defend against North Korea's ballistic missiles, such as through the deployment of a THAAD battery to South Korea." The US Defense Department said Defense Secretary James Mattis spoke with Japanese Defense Minister Tomomi Inada and that they agreed the North Korean launches were "an unacceptable and irresponsible act that undermines security and stability in the region." Pentagon spokesman Captain Jeff Davis said : “any attack on the United States or its allies will be defeated, and any use of nuclear weapons will be met with a response that is effective and overwhelming.” The White House said President Trump gave a similar message to Hwang and Japanese Prime Minister Abe in telephone calls Monday. NBC News reported that Yang Uk, a senior fellow at the Korea Defense & Security Forum, a private research group in Seoul, said : "THAAD installation will not be met with fully open arms but semi-open arms. A majority of South Korean people do understand the need for installing the THAAD and also that it is better sooner than later, but China's trade attack and pressure on South Korean people and businesses is [stopping] many South Koreans from welcoming THAAD. The reality is that China is opposed to THAAD deployment not because of South Korea, but because of the US, and so if the US works closely with South Korea to alleviate China's pressure against South Korea, more South Koreans will openly support THAAD installation." But, according to NBC, Kim Young-woo, chairman of the National Assembly's Defense Committee, rejected the idea that China's opposition should influence the decision : "China does not really have a say here, as this is about South Korea's defense capability. It is against the principles of free trade to put economic pressure against South Korea. Just look at how North Korea's threat is escalating. We are faced with North Korea's fanatical obsession over weapons of mass destruction....The THAAD is a defense capability we need to defend ourselves." • • • RESPONSES TO THAAD. Before the latest North Korea missile launch, the Wall Street Journal reported that an internal Trump White House strategy review on North Korean options includes the possibility of both military force and regime change to counter NK’s nuclear-weapons threat. The WSJ reports that the prospect of military force "has some US allies in the region on edge." The review, according to the WSJ, underscores the possible military dimensions of the emerging strategy in recent discussions with allies, "suggesting that the planning is at an advanced stage." President Trump has taken steps to reassure allies that he won’t abandon agreements that have underpinned decades of US policy on Asia, and pledged that Pyongyang would be stopped from ever testing an intercontinental ballistic missile. The two-week-old strategy review has some leaders bracing for a shift in American policy. The proposal emerged in mid-February when Deputy National Security Advisor K.T. McFarland convened a meeting with national security officials across the government and asked them for proposals on North Korea. McFarland's reques, according to an Infowars report, was for all options, ranging from US recognition of North Korea as a nuclear state to military action against Pyongyang. McFarland’s directive was for the administration to undergo a comprehensive rethink of America’s North Korea policy. The national security officials reported back to McFarland with their ideas and suggestions at the end of February and their suggestions will undergo refinement and shaping before they’re given to the President for consideration. • There is also speculation that China may itself pre-empt a move by Washington in order to prevent US military action in North Korea. China fears the fallout of a military confrontation with its neighbor and could, says Infowars, take steps Washington has long asked for to choke off Pyongyang’s economic lifeline. But, in response to the THAAD deployment, after a meeting between China’s assistant foreign minister Kong Xuanyou and Russian deputy foreign minister Igor Morgulov in Beijing, China and Russia announced they have agreed to intensify their opposition to the US’s THAAD missile defense system. The Chinese Foreign Ministry released a statement saying : “Both sides said they will continue to strengthen their coordinated opposition to THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system)." Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs also released a statement, saying : “both parties emphasized that collective political and diplomatic efforts should be stepped up to ease tensions and initiate the process of military and political detente across the board in Northeast Asia, in order to create conditions conducive to resolving the nuclear issue, as well as other issue, on the Korean Peninsula.” • Japan is concerned that it could get drawn into a regional conflict by a US military strike on North Korea, said Tetsuo Kotani, a senior fellow at the Japan Institute of International Affairs, a Tokyo think tank. Japan also fears a scenario in which the US instead holds talks with North Korea and reaches a deal that would lead to Washington disengaging from the region, he said. Japan, under its pacifist constitution, is heavily dependent on US military support, not only to counter North Korea, but also China, which has stepped up a territorial challenge against Japanese-administered islands in the East China Sea. Kotani says : " Direct talks between Mr. Trump and Kim Jong Un would be a nightmare scenario for Japa.” Kotani said. • • • DEAR READERS, China is sabre rattling over the US deployment of a THAAD system in South Korea. China has repeatedly spoken out against THAAD over fears that it will be able ot track its own ballistic missile capabilities, and has urged South Korea and Washington not to go ahead with the system’s planned deployment. Before the signing of the THAAD deal, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang warned of “consequences” against Washington and Seoul if the agreement were to go ahead, claiming the system “severely disrupts regional strategic balance and jeopardizes the strategic security interests of regional countries including China.” China “will definitely take necessary measures to safeguard its security interests,” he said during a news briefing, adding that “all the consequences entailed will be borne by the US and the Republic of Korea.” • And, Russia has previously urged those involved in the THAAD system to consider the escalated tensions it will inevitably cause. Last month, Moscow appraised the situation around the Korean Peninsula as “exhibiting a high likelihood of becoming volatile,” emphasizing the “counter-productiveness of the line being taken by certain governments in exacerbating these tensions and instigating an arms race in the subregion, as well as the increase in the scale of military drills.” However, the US and South Korea maintain that THAAD is a defensive measure against Pyongyang. South Korean officials have said they expect the missile system to be operational this year, perhaps as early as August. • The always precarious peace in East Asia is more and more dependent on the actions of the North Korean madman dictator. While for now the US is only weighing military intervention or regime change as one of many possible reactions to the developing North Korean missile program, these two options will certainly move to front and center, if Kim Jong Un unexpectedly launches a ballistic missile that hits anything in East Asia US allied territory. But, as Defense Secretary James Mattis said in Tokyo at the conclusion of his early Febraury trip to East Asia, in reference to the Japanese-administered Sukaku Islands claimed by China : “What we have to do is exhaust all efforts, diplomatic efforts, to try to resolve this properly, maintaining open lines of communication. At this time we do not see any need for dramatic military moves.” But, Mattis criticized China for the distrust it has caused with its assertiveness in the South China Sea region : “China has shredded the trust of nations in the region, apparently trying to have a veto authority over the diplomatic and security and economic conditions of neighboring states.” Secretary Mattis' view of US policy in East Asia will surely carry great weight in President Trump's final North Korea policy.