Iran and Iraq Are Ground Zero for Trump-Tillerson Foreign Policy Success

Our thoughts and prayers are with Great Britain and her people today. As they face terrorist acts, we stand steadfastly with them. • • • President Trump and Secretary of State Tillerson have their work cut out for them in trying to engage China in serious assistance to bring about a halt in North Korea's nuclear program. But, while Trump and Tillerosn focus on North Korea and China, they cannot forget the Middle East. • • • IRAQ. "In his very first meeting with President Trump, Iraqi PM Haider al- Abadi expressed confidence in defeating the Islamic State (IS) terror group : "We have been given assurance that US support will not only continue but will accelerate Iraq to accomplish the task." India Today reported Iraqi prime minister's words about his Washington meeting with President Trump on its online news site, and also reported that the Chinese Xinhua news agency published a positive report. • When Trump and al-Abadi met on Monday, they agreed to pursue a long-term partnership to "decisively" root out terrorism and strengthen the Iraqi military and other key institutions, according ot their joint statement. They also indicated that "terrorism cannot be defeated by military might alone," and Trump and al-Abadi also agreed to promote an extensive political and economic partnership between the two countries. Later this year, the US and Iraqi leaders will meet to decide on steps to "deepen commercial ties and promote investment, expand collaboration in the energy sector, and seek new opportunities for cultural and educational cooperation," according India Today. Monday's meeting came as Iraqi forces "continue to consolidate gains against the IS, particularly in the battle for Mosul, which has been under the IS control since June 2014." India Today also reported : "The meeting between Trump and Abadi also comes two days ahead of a key multinational meeting in Washington on fighting the IS. US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson will host foreign ministers and senior officials from 68 nations and international organisations for a detailed discussion of priorities for the efforts against the IS." In a side note, India Today noted that "Abadi also thanked Trump for removing Iraq from travel ban affecting several Moslem-majority countries." • • • As India Today was reporting positively about the Trump meeting with al-Abadi, the Washington Post was reporting with a different slant : "As US-backed forces and Iraqi government troops steadily take back the crucial northern city of Mosul from the Islamic State, attention is shifting to what happens once the battle is won. There are vexing challenges ahead : The weak shiite-led government in Baghdad has yet to prove it has the ability to govern provinces where sunnis comprise the majority; a movement for a referendum on an independent Kurdish state in northern Iraq is gaining traction; a host of other regional powers, including Turkey and Iran, are also exerting influence on the ground in competing ways." This is true, but positive reporting of the meeting was downplayed. The WP quoted al-Abadi : “We are proving that Daesh can be eliminated,” noting that he was speaking at the US Institute of Peace, an agency of the government "that the Trump administration plans to eliminate in its new proposed budget." The WP said : "Abadi offered a message of hope for his nation, arguing that things were looking up and that the country's fledgling democracy was successfully moving forward." Then, the WP added : "Still, critics, including human rights organizations, are concerned about the effects of an entrenched and deepening sectarianism. Abadi's shiite-dominated government remains distrusted in areas reclaimed from the Islamic State. Key Iranian-backed shiite militias mobilized by Abadi's government to fight in the anti-Islamic State campaign have been accused of carrying out their own massacres of sunnis deemed to have collaborated with the extremist group. A report...by PBS Frontline...details the mass disappearances of sunni boys and men in a village outside of Baghdad once occupied by the Islamic State. Locals claim that the men were abducted by the shiite fighters who had liberated the town from the jihadists. On a wider scale, as [WP journalists] have reported, the ineptitude of local officials and endemic graft among the police and judiciary in certain parts of Iraq have created room for Islamic State cells to return to provincial cities where they were only recently ousted. 'We have inherited many problems, some of which are intrinsic in our society,' Abadi admitted during his talk at the USIP." • The rest of the negative Washington Post story outlines its disagreements with Trump -- his confusing position on Iraq, "saying he opposed the invasion of Iraq in 2003 ('although it emerged that he was for the war before he was against it');" signaling he wants a radical break from "his party's history of engineering regime change and embarking on nation-building projects in the Middle East," but at the same time, pushing for a more muscular approach to fighting the Islamic State and "exhibiting an alarming disregard for Iraqi sovereignty" with his perplexing calls to take the nation's oil; deciding to include Iraq on the list of seven Moslem-majority countries in the US travel ban, then removing Iraq from the second executive order that "faces renewed legal challenges in the courts." • On their face, these Washington Post charges seem true enough, except for their charged word choices, but if we consider the entire Middle East context, they are much less fair to the new Trump administration. Even the WP itself half-heartedly said as much in February in an editorial : “While the Obama administration deserves blame for sidestepping Iraq’s political challenges, Mr. Trump has quickly exacerbated the trouble.” The Post's basic problem with Trump seems to be the same one the Foreign Policy journal has, as quoted by the WP : " 'The White House's proposed cuts to the State Department and its general apathy toward multilateral diplomacy don't inspire observers with much confidence. Trump’s efforts to 'deconstruct' the non-Pentagon parts of the US foreign policy apparatus -- as well as cuts to support for international institutions -- threatens to strip the United States of the tools required in Iraq and elsewhere, just when we need them most,' wrote Jeff Prescott and Daniel Benaim, two former Obama administration officials, in Foreign Policy. Unless we plan another occupation of Iraq (or genuinely and absurdly seek to 'take the oil') it is a reality that as the fighting stops our military will step aside and the State Department, USAID, the IMF, and the UN will have to take over.” • Granted, the situation in Iraq is extremely complicated. There is a push by Kurds for a Kurdish nation. There is the historic animosity between Iraq's sunnis and shiites, now exacerbated by Baghdad's volatile politics that include the ascension of shiite Iran, thanks in large part to Obama's leaving the door open for them to enter Iraq in force. And al-Abadi is facing re-election next year, with some in his own shiite political party, as well as former prime minister Nouri al-Maliki, widely seen as waiting in the wings for Abadi to make a 'fatal' political mistake. Trump himself has criticized both Obama and G.W. Bush for giving Iraq to Iran. But, Trump must now figure out how to corral and control the newly rich and powerful Iran unleashed by Obama without undercutting al-Abadi and other prominent Iraqi shiites in Baghdad, who prefer shiite Iran to Iraqi sunnis as their political and military partner. In Washington, al-Abadi tried to show that his government is capable of being a solid US partner. But, according to the Washington Post, the underlying tensions are not far from the surface : "We have to work with others. We have to build bridges,” Abadi remarked at the close of his USIP talk. He ended with a joke at Trump's expense : “Otherwise, what do you do? You build walls?” • • • IRAN. So, if Iran is the underlying problem in the Middle East, and most observers seem to agree at least on this one point, what is Trump going to do about Iran? • On Tuesday, Israel Today wrote : "Many believe that it’s inevitable that the Syrian civil war will eventually spill over into northern Israel. Iran is doing everything in its power to prove them right." The Israel Today article goes on to describe how "Iran’s Lebanese proxy, Hezbollah, is already heavily engaged in the war in Syria. But the group has suffered major losses, and is stretched thin trying to keep Syrian dictator Bashar Assad in power. So Iran has funneled money and resources to establish a new Hezbollah brigade focused on 'liberating' the Golan Heights from Israeli control." Israel Today quotes a spokesman for the “Golan Liberation Brigade,” who told Iranian media : “This is a trained army with specific plans. If the government of Syria requests, we and our allies are ready to take action to liberate Golan. We will not permit Arab and Islamic countries in the region to remain in the grasps of the [Israeli] occupiers.” Israel Today notes that the new brigade's promotional video featured soldiers carrying flags that read “Israel Will Be Destroyed.” • Does Russia agree with this new Iranian proposal to attack Israel and retake the Golan Heights for Iranian proxy Hezbollah? Not so much, it would seem, if the next report is accurate. • • • ISRAEL IDF CONFRONTATION WITH SYRIAN AIR DEFENSE. The French i24 TV outlet that also publishes a news website in English, reported last Friday that the Syrian army claimed Friday it shot down an Israeli plane and hit a second one as they were carrying out pre-dawn strikes near the ancient desert city of Palmyra [Syria]. The Syrian army said : "Our air defense engaged them and shot down one warplane over occupied territory, hit another one, and forced the rest to flee." The i24 site reported that the Israeli air force had said earlier that it carried out several strikes on Syria overnight, but that "none of the ground-to-air missiles fired by Syrian forces in response had hit Israeli aircraft," citing Israeli military officials, who confirmed that "Israel downed an incoming Syrian anti-aircraft missile which was fired at an Israeli jet with the Arrow defense battery early Friday morning, marking the first reported use of the advanced missile defense system." Overnight Thursday, Israeli warplanes attacked several targets in Syria, the Israel Defense Forces said, prompting the Syrian attempt to shoot down the Israeli jets, according to the IDF : “Several anti-aircraft missiles were launched from Syria following the mission and IDF aerial defense systems intercepted one of the missiles. The safety of the forces and Israeli civilians were not compromised." The i24 story continued : "The Arrow system, a part of Israeli's multi-layered air defense array, is designed to shoot down intercontinental ballistic missiles outside the atmosphere, intercepting the weapons and their warheads close to their launch sites. The IDF did not specify which targets were attacked, but local media and Arab media said the target of the strikes was a Hezbollah weapons convoy. Apparently triggered by the Syrian anti-aircraft missile, sirens warning of incoming rockets sounded off in the Jordan Valley region in central Israel and the West Bank early Friday. Initial reports said the sirens and explosions were believed to be from rocket launches against Israel from either the West Bank or Jordan. But according to the news site Walla, the sirens sounded when Israeli missile defense systems detected a missile being launched at the Israeli Air Force planes during their strike against Syrian targets. Shortly thereafter two loud blasts were audible as far south and west as Jerusalem, local media reported. Earlier Friday, an IDF spokesperson said the incident was being examined. IDF ground forces in the area initially launched a search for fallen rockets in the mountainous terrain before discovering the trigger for the sirens." • There is also a related Jerusalem Post Tuesday report that Iran has accused Russia of giving Israel the codes for Syrian air anti-aircraft missiles [S-300s] to Israel. The JP quotes a senior official in the engineering department of Iran's Defense Department who spoke to the Kuwaiti daily Al-Jarida on Monday. But, says the JP : "The Kuwaiti daily quotes Iran Defense Ministry source as saying Iran was able to change the codes without Russia's knowledge, enabling Friday's missile launch against Israeli aircraft." According to the JP report : "Much remains unknown about Israel's attack on a Hezbollah weapons convoy and the Syrian response to the Israeli fighter jets early Friday morning....Friday marked the first time that an anti-aircraft missile had been fired at an IAF jet. Al-Jarida's Teheran correspondent, Farzad Qassemi, cited a source in the Iranian Defense Ministry as saying that Iranian experts had changed the operation codes for the Syrian air defense system, which is what enabled the anti-aircraft missiles to be used against the Israeli Air Force on Friday morning." • The Jerusalem Post says that according to the source : "Damascus and Teheran 'were shocked' every time the Russian-made air defense system did not work to defend Syria's airspace, or even give notification that the air space had been penetrated in order to evacuate outposts prior to the airstrike. The systems are supposed to identify the takeoff of Israeli Air Force jets from their bases because of the small distance between the countries and is even supposed to attempt to target the planes and any missiles that are fired from them." According to the source, the Iranians and the Syrians suspected that Russia gave the codes for the air defense system to Israel and even refused the requests of Iran and Syria to check the codes. The source told the JP : "Iran has the ability today to change the Russian security codes, since it received the advanced Russian S-300. This came after it received reports that Israel got the operation codes for the missile system. In Iran, they even expanded their knowledge when they built the Bavar-373 air defense system -- which is a domestic copy of the Russian S-300 -- in order that the systems would work together during an attack." According to the source, three weeks ago, during Iranian military maneuvers, Iranian engineers hacked into the codes of the S-300. The source also told the JP that the Iranian Defense Ministry sent several engineers to Syria to change the codes of the air defense system that was under the control of the Syrian army, without Moscow's knowledge : "They succeeded in changing some of the codes last month and therefore when the Israel fighter jets took off from their bases -- the air defense system succeeded in identifying them and firing interceptor missiles at them and at the missiles they had launched." The source added that "the Syrian radar treated Israeli fighter jets as friendly planes in the past and not as enemy planes, which proves that Israel knew the codes of the missile system." According to the source, the identification of the Israeli fighter jets taking off enabled Hezbollah to evacuate the outpost and even to launch a missile toward the military base from which the fighter jets had taken off. The Iranian source said further that in a report sent to the Russian military command, the Russians were asked if someone penetrated the Syrian air defense system. Both the Iranians and Syrians are awaiting an answer. • It seems that earlier reports that there is growing tension between Russia and Iran over who will control Syria and its military are at least partially true. Why else would Russia and Iran be engaged in an operation-code war over the Syrian air defense system. • • • TRUMP AND TILLERSON VS IRAN. That would seem like a no-brainer. Is it??? American Thinker on Sunday published an article by Amir Basiri, an Iranian human rights activist, who wrote : "Perhaps the most challenging foreign policy dilemma facing the Trump administration is none other than Iran. Issues include Iran’s nuclear program, a regional policy focused on increasing its hegemonic reach, a network backing a conglomerate of militia groups rampaging the entire region, a dangerous missile program, and continuing human rights violations. The question before Washington is how to tackle these issues without launching yet another unnecessary war or adopting an appeasement-based policy." Basiri says the situation has become ever more sensitive "as Teheran once again resorted to a new round of hostilities in successfully testing a naval missile hitting a target at 250 kilometers, launching a new pair of ballistic missiles last weekend, and again dispatching its fast-attack boats to harass a US Navy surveillance ship in the international Gulf waters of the Strait of Hormuz. The provocative move was described as 'unsafe and unprofessional' by a US official." Basiri say it is time to forget the current Washington policy of trying to find so-called "moderates/reformists" inside the regime...after 38 years in power, the mullahs have through their atrocious domestic crackdown and wreaking havoc across the Middle East proven this perspective to be nothing but a hoax." • It is certainly true that the US and the West have continually looked at the every new Iranian president as a "moderate" who will rally the Iranian people behind him in a successful attempt to gradually overturn the power of the Ayatollah. It just hasn't happened -- from Rafsanjani who fathered Iran’s nuclear program and purged a slate of political dissidents abroad, to Khatami who viciously oppressed the 1999 student uprising in Iran, to the current Rouhani who successfully beat Obama by negotiating a nuclear deal extremely favorable to Iran. Obama thought he could smooth-talk Rouhani, and also Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei by writing secret letters to him, but all Obama accomplished was to provide Iran a green light to immerse the entire Middle East in terrorism -- the examples are Syria and Iraq. • Basiri lays out the result in Syria : "The concessions made by Obama in this regard to Iran were unnecessary, to say the least. Not only was Iran allowed to preserve its ballistic missile and nuclear program, Syria is now a radicalized state thanks to Teheran’s meddling. One can truly argue Obama’s approach allowed Teheran to support Assad in the massacre of over half a million Syrians, the displacement of 12 million, and the entire country left in ruins." And the same applies to Iraq, says Basiri : "Obama also turned a blind eye to Iran brewing disaster in Iraq through the Revolutionary Guards’ [IRGC] proxy militias that continue to massacre the sunni minority to this day, all under the pretext of battling Daesh (ISIS/ISIL)." • And we recently learned through an Iranian opposition press conference in London that the IRGC’s secret network of 90 docks is used to send arms to regional militia groups smuggle $12 billion of goods in the ongoing effort of taking control of Iran’s economy and providing illicit funds for its terrorist activities. Says Basiri : "The Obama-crafted nuclear agreement actually encouraged the Iranian regime to increase its belligerence and press the gas pedal on its radical Middle East agenda." • • • AMERICA AND IRAN. The most important thing the Trump administration must remember is the failure that looking for "moderate" Iranian leaders has produced. Under Obama, the US lost much of its credibility, its influence, and the trust of people looking for American protection in Syria, Iraq -- and Iran. In the process, Obama policies led to the loss of thousands of American soldiers' lives and continued the massive expense that, under Obama, was mostly money lost. CENTCOM commander General Joseph L. Votel told the Senate Armed Services Committee recently that Iran poses the most substantial threat to US CENTCOM's area of responsibility : “We are also dealing with a range of malign activities perpetrated by Iran and its proxies operating in the region. It is my view that Iran poses the greatest long-term threat to stability for this part of the world." • The rise of Iran has been the result of the serious misunderstanding about the reality of Iranian politics and internal factions that, says Basiri, "leaves no room for 'moderates' or 'reformists.' The history of appeasement/engagement/rapprochement vis-à-vis Iran’s mullahs is enough proof that such an illusion must be set aside for good." • • • DEAR READERS, then-President Obama was caught on an open microphone in 2012 telling then–Russian President Dmitry Medvedev to pass along a message to then–prime minister Vladimir Putin : “On all these issues, but particularly missile defense, this, this can be solved, but it’s important for him to give me space....This is my last election. After my election, I have more flexibility.” We assumed then that Obama was talking solely about the air defense missile ring that was to be installed in eastern Europe. BUT, was Obama also referring to the Russian air defense system to be installed in both Iran and Syria?? Perhaps the main driver behind Obama’s unwillingness to confront Russia, and his decision to ignore or downplay Russia’s aggression, was that he wanted Russia’s help with what would become Obama’s "legacy" foreign-policy “achievement,” the Iran nuclear deal. And, oh boy, did Obama get help -- a billion-dollar anti-missile system sale to protect Syria’s Bashar al-Assad, and the sale by Russia to Iran of the advanced S-300 air defense system that had been on hold under the Iranian sanctions that Obama lifted. The Russian–Iranian partnership wouldn’t exist in today's format if it weren’t for Barack Obama. • Further, many details about the Iran deal were negotiated secretly, avoiding congressional oversight and public scrutiny, and these "details" are still classified, so we have no idea what Obama agreed to or if the Deep State left behind by Obama is carrying them out. The President of the Institute for Science and International Security, David Albright, testified recently before the House Foreign Affairs Committee : “First, the workings of the deal have been far too secret. Some portions of the parallel or side deals and secret Joint Commission and Procurement Working Group (PWG) decisions and actions have been publicly revealed. Although the PWG decided after Donald Trump won the presidency to release its major decisions, likely feeling increasing pressure to do so, much still remains secret.” In the summer of 2015, Congress meekly sought access to the side deals and annexes related to the Iran deal. Two prominent members of Congress who actually fought hard were GOP Senator Tom Cotton and then-Representative Mike Pompeo, who, as the current Director of the Central Intelligence Agency, may now be able to sort out the secret details. And, let's not forget that Obama shipped $400 million in cash on pallets to Iran on the day the Iranians released American hostages held on the tarmac in Teheran waiting for the cash to arrive. Obama insisted the hostage release and the pallets of cash were not a ransom, saying the transactions were unrelated. Members of the media reported this as the truth, even after a State Department spokesman eventually admitted that the timing of the cash transfer was “leveraged” to secure the hostage release. Then, while the media frenzy focused on the American election results and whether President-Elect Trump was saying nice things about Putin, the US, still under Obama, and the five other world powers that negotiated the Iran deal (including Russia), authorized the shipment of 116 metric tons of natural uranium from Russia to Iran. David Albright told the media the 116 tons could be enriched to make more than ten nuclear bombs. • This is the starting point for President Tryump and Secretary Tillerson -- and the US military. It is not a pretty picture and it will require time, nerves of steel and US muscle applied to all its allies to reverse the catastrophe Obama left behind him in the Middle East. What should Trump do? Remember that -- while trying to work with Russia is better than ignoring it or running NATO troops up to its border in eastern Europe -- Russia is an adversary of the United States, and Russia is supporting and arming a terrorist Iran that is the avowed enemy of both the US and Israel. It all happened under President Obama, despite his denials, and because of his constant capitulation, it remains true today. But, in addition, because of the Obama initiatives, both Russia and Iran are far more powerful today -- witness the Syrian air defense missile that recognized and fired at Israeli Air Force planes for the first time Friday. We might be tempted to edit President Theodore Roosevelt's famous line about winning : "Speak LOUDLY and carry a big stick." Putin and the Ayatollah just might respond to that.