Sunday, December 4, 2016

Trump's Call with Taiwan's President Was Meant to Send China a Key Message

As world media reported, on Friday, at 10 am US Eastern Time, US President-Elect Donald Trump spoke with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen on the phone, breaking with nearly 40 years of US foreign policy tradition. Since the United States "normalized" relations with Beijing, according to the “one China” policy, there has been extremely limited formal contact between officials from both sides, and never (at least publicly knowledged) between the Taiwanese and American presidents. In fact, the US closed its Taiwan embassy in 1979 and ended formal relations with Taiwan to comply with China's insistence on a "one China" policy. • • • THE CALL. Trump spoke directly with the Taiwanese president, breaking the policy; and the question is whether it was a break Trump intends to continue or just a friendly congratulatory call he decided to accept. At first glance, Trump seemed to be saying that it was just congratulations, when he tweeted : “The President of Taiwan CALLED ME today to wish me congratulations on winning the Presidency. Thank you!” He emphasized that he had not initiated the call. Then, in Trump fashion, he followed up with a later tweet : “Interesting how the US sells Taiwan billions of dollars of military equipment but I should not accept a congratulatory call.” • • • WHAT REALLY HAPPENED. The Diplomat says that while Tsai initiated the call, she did so while Stephen Yates, an advisor with the Trump transition team who some sources say has a White House position in his future, was visiting Taiwan -- undoubtedly not a coincidence. CNN, citing a “source familiar with [Yates’] visit,” said that he “helped facilitate the call.” So, while Trump implied that he simply picked up the phone when Tsai called, there’s at least circumstantial evidence that his team coordinated the outreach. As for the military sales, the US makes regular military sales to Taiwan under the Taiwan Relations Act even after formally severing diplomatic ties. So, the arm sales are an accepted part of the complicated US -China-Taiwan relationship, although they irritate Beijing and Chinese defense officials regularly cite the continuing arms sales as their number one concern in the US-China defense relationship. • • • CHINA'S REACTION. The Chinese leadership has had to try to put these various pieces together quickly as it formulates its reaction ot the phone call. Add to that the complication that the Obama administration, not Trump, is still in power, limiting the effectiveness of normal channels for expressing China's displeasure. Ned Price, the spokesman for the National Security Council, release a statement reassuring Beijing, saying : “We remain firmly committed to our ‘one China’ policy...Our fundamental interest is in peaceful and stable cross-strait relations.” Price also mentioned that Presidents-Elect usually seek “expertise and counsel” from the State Department before wading into the China-Taiwan issue, as reports surfaced revealing that Trump’s team didn’t consult with the White House or the State Department before accepting the call. So, China took a two-pronged approach. It made its displeasure clear by lodging representations with the United States, according to Foreign Ministry spokesperson Geng Shuang, who said : “The world has only one China, Taiwan is an inalienable part of China’s territory, and the government of the People’s Republic of China is the only legitimate government representing China. The one China principle is the political foundation for China-US relations. We urge the relevant American side to abide by and carry out the one China policy, to respect the promises and prudence of the three China-US joint communiques, and to appropriately handle the Taiwan issue in order to avoid a needless disruption to the larger China-US relationship.” • That is rather clear, isn't it?? • Well, actually, maybe it isn't so clear. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi dismissed the conversation as “a little trick” by Taiwan : “I don’t think it will change the one-China policy of the US government." Perhaps, instead of causing ill will with the new American President-Elect, China will direct its anger at President Tsai. Beijing severed official communication mechanisms with Taiwan after Tsai took office, because she refused to embrace the “1992 consensus” on China-Taiwan relations. Will China see Tsai’s call to Trump as an attempt to gain more international recognition. If so, China may seek to apply economic squeezes to Taiwan. But, Taiwan’s Presidential Office seems unperturbed by China's immediate reactions. The Office confirmed the call, saying Tsai had congratulated Trump and expressed her admiration for his victory in a “fiercely competitive election.” Tsai also expressed her confidence that Trump will have an “outstanding” administration on taking office. The statement characterized their ten-minute conversation as “cordial and relaxed.” And, according to Taipei, Trump and Tsai exchanged views on key points, especially “boosting domestic economic development and strengthening national defense.” They also “briefly” discussed Asia’s regional situation. Tsai expressed her expectation that the United States and Taiwan will strengthen ties under President Trump, and her hope that his administration with continue to support a greater role for Taiwan on the international stage. • • • DEMOCRAT AND MSM HYSTERIA. The mainstream media line was that America's relationship with China could potentially be in jeopardy after Trump spoke with Tsai by phone Friday. After the Financial Times broke the news about the phone call between the two leaders, Evan Medeiros, the formera Asia director at the White House national security council, told the New York Times the phone call could be seen as "highly provocative" in China's view. Medeiros said : "Regardless if it was deliberate or accidental, this phone call will fundamentally change China's perceptions of Trump's strategic intentions for the negative. With this kind of move, Trump is setting a foundation of enduring mistrust and strategic competition for US -China relations." Senator Chris Murphy, a Connecticut Democrat and member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, posted a series of tweets Friday regarding Trump's foreign policy : "(1) Foreign policy consistency is a means, not an end. It's not sacred. Thus, it's Trump's right to shift policy, alliances, strategy. (2) What has happened in the last 48 hours is not a shift. These are major pivots in foreign policy w/out any plan. That's how wars start. (3) And if they aren't pivots - just radical temporary deviations - allies will walk if they have no clue what we stand for. Just as bad. (4) It's probably time we get a Secretary of State nominee on board. Preferably w experience. Like, really really soon." • CNN was spastic over the phone call, devoting all of Friday night to suggesting or straight out stating that Trump is a nincompoop hayseed who will start World War III. Kellyanne Conway and Jerffrey Lord defended Trump against the hysterical barrage, but finally just shrugged and stonewalled. Conway told Cooper the problem is that CNN believes Trump never knows what he is doing, whereas they never question Obama's proven foreign affairs gaffs. • • • TRUMP IS ALSO TALKING TO CHINA. Trump has had conversations with more than 50 world leaders, according to the Wall Street Journal. One of those leaders was Chinese President Xi Jinping -- MSM doesn't mention it, but just five days after Trump won the presidency, the WSJ reported that he spoke on the phone with Xi. The pair, according to Trump's office, had a candid conversation : "During the call, the leaders established a clear sense of mutual respect for one another, and President-Elect Trump stated that he believes the two leaders will have one of the strongest relationships for both countries moving forward." • • • REPUBLICANS SUPPORT THE TAIWAN CALL. Republican lawmakers are praising Trump for the Taiwan call. Representative Matt Salmon applauded Trump for “making a strong statement” with the historic conversation. "I commend Trump for reaching out to the democratically-elected President of Taiwan, Tsai Ing-wen,” Salmon told The Hill. Salmon, who chairs the House Foreign Affairs subcommittee on Asia and the Pacific and is a former missionary in Taiwan, attended the recent inauguration of the new Taiwanese president. Salmon says : "America has always been a champion of democratic values and individual freedoms, and I applaud the President-Elect for making a strong statement in support of those values around the world." Representative Mark Meadows, who also serves on the Foreign Affairs Committee, downplayed the phone call in a statement to The Hill : "President-Elect Trump recognizes that reaching out to every world leader is a critical component of an effective foreign policy. It's not policy, it's a phone call." Senator Tom Cotton said Trump's move "reaffirms our commitment to the only democracy on Chinese soil. America's policy toward Taiwan is governed by the Taiwan Relations Act, under which we maintain close ties with Taiwan and support its democratic system. I commend President-Elect Trump for his conversation with President Tsai Ing-wen." House GOP Policy Committee Chairman Luke Messer, a member of the GOP leadership team, said he "loved" Trump's bold move : "Taiwan is a great friend of America and I see nothing wrong with the President-Elect letting the world see that. To me, it's ironic that some who call Obama enlightened for his outreach to murderous communist thugs in Cuba would now criticize Trump for acknowledging Taiwan. I have visited Taiwan twice in recent years. And anyone who has knows that Taiwan is a democratic republic, a great trade partner with America, and a nation that values freedom and the rule of law." Representative Pete King tweeted praise the President-Elect : "Plaudits to President-Elect Trump for his historic phone call to Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen. Strong message to China. New day in Asia.” • Are we seeing the divide -- Democrats, Progressives and their MSM puppet propagandists are in favor of peace with China at any price, while Republicans and conservatives, although willing to deal with China, continue to support the free, democratic country of Taiwan as a true friend in Asia. • • • DEAR READERS, Trump, as he often does, followed up with a second tweet on Friday night, suggesting that if the United States could sell "Taiwan billions of dollars of military equipment," he should be able to accept a call from the Taiwan leader : "Interesting how the US sells Taiwan billions of dollars of military equipment but I should not accept a congratulatory call." (2:41 AM - 3 Dec 2016). Consider that second tweet carefully. Many analysts think that because President-Elect Trump stresses his America First policy and wants to renegotiate trade deals and rebalance the Pax Americana worldwide security net, he will forget about Asia, leaving China free to expand its aggressive domination in the Pacific Rim. If Democrats and the MSM had been thinking about what the Trump phone call with Taiwan's President Tsai really signifies -- instead of predicting that the call signals the end of the world -- several things might have occurred to them. • First, in July, the Republican National Convention repeated the “six assurances” given to Taiwan by then-US president Ronald Reagan in 1982 and -- for the first time -- included these pledges in the official platform at the Republican National Convention. The assurances include not setting a date for ending arms sales to Taiwan, as well as giving commitments not to revise the Taiwan Relations Act or pressure Taiwan to enter into negotiations with China. That platform, as every GOP platform, was the work of, and reflects the positions of, the presidential nominee, in this case none other than Donald Trump. Do we suppose that Donald Trump, just about as direct and plain-spoken a nominee as either party has ever had, simply plopped that Taiwan clause into his platform on a whim??? Not likely, is it? • Second, Trump just announced that his Secretary of Defense will be retired Marine General Jim Mattis -- "Mad Dog" Mattis, who is renowned for his battlefield and strategic wizardry. Do we suppose that Donald Trump simply liked the nickname but has asked General Mattis to preside over the shutdown of the US military presence around the world??? And, do we think for one minute that Mattis would take such a job??? Not likely, is it? • And, third, Trump relies on the advice of Newt Gingrich and John Bolton, both tough veterans in the diplomatic wars with America's foes. Gingrich and Bolton believe in a strong foreign policy with the military teeth to enforce it. And we know that neither of them ever 'minces' a word about their opinions. • So, we can assume several things : (1) the Trump-Tsai phone call was not random. It was planned. (2) It was "congratulatory" on the surface. But, there was a "message" in what the MSM fools call Trump's "madness." • That message is based on the new American President having understood that being bullied by China for 40 years over democratic free Taiwan and many other issues has gotten the US and the world to a minus 1,000. So, the Trump message to China is at least twofold. First, there is Chinese reluctance to step up to its role in corraling the nuclear madness of the North Korea regime and its Dear Leader. The world -- and the Obama administration -- know that China can put serious brakes on the North Korean nuclear program by curtailing Chinese-facilitated deliveries of energy, nuclear materiel, and money. But, nobody has taken the chance of holding China's feet to the fire on North Korea, presumably because they are afraid of China, a temperamental monster angered by being forced to do anything -- even preventing nuclear suicide and murder by its own client state. Second, the world -- and the Obama administration -- know that China is behaving aggressively and illegally in the South China Sea -- de facto annexing the entire body of water and intimidating all the countries that live in the region, forcing them to accept the annexation because the United States under Barack Obama has refused to come to their aid to force China to back down. • CONCLUSION? The Trump-Tsai phone call was the first message delivered to Beijing by President Trump. The message is simple but powerful -- America is back and will champion a more equitable arrangement in Asia. China will no longer bully and treat her neighbors with aggressive contempt. China will find it beneficial to help with the North Korea nuclear problem. China will find a way to back off her South China Sea grab. Of course, there will be the usual diplomatic face-saving and niceties. But, Donald Trump is not Barack Obama. We can be certain that China is already coming to terms with this new reality and working to figure out how to fit into the new world order Trump is creating -- tweet by tweet and phone call by phone call.

No comments:

Post a Comment