Trump, Mattis, Flynn, and the Ayatollah

Tuesday evening at his Thank-you tour stop in Fayetteville, North Carolina, President-Elect Donald Trump formally announced and introduced General James Mattis as his Secretary of Defense -- sending a signal to ISIS, Syria and Iran that a different America is now evaluating the Middle East situation. • • • GENERAL MATTIS, EXPERT IN MIDDLE EAST WARFARE. General Mattis rose to national prominence in 2001 as the then-one-star general who led an amphibious task force of a 1,000 Marines on a mission in Kandahar province in Afghanistan after 9/11, capturing the airport there and establishing one of the first coalition command centers in the country. In 2003, he commanded a Marine division during the invasion of Iraq and returned in 2004 to lead the brutal urban combat in Fallujah. As the Marines he commanded were about to charge into Iraq in 2003, he advised them to “engage your brain before you engage your weapon” and told them, “On your young shoulders rest the hopes of mankind.” • Mattis, who is now a Fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, most recently served as the head of the US Central Command, the geographic combatant command that is in charge of US actions in the Middle East. He was commander of Centcom from 2010 to 2013, a time that saw the drawdown of forces in Iraq, a surge of forces in Afghanistan and the start of the Syrian civil war. Toward the end of his service, Mattis clashed with the Obama administration over the Iran nuclear deal. Speculation when he retired was that the White House pushed him out over disputes on Iran strategy. • More recently, Mattis has said that negotiation with Iran over its nuclear program “was not without some merit” and said scrapping the deal now is not an option “absent a clear violation.” But he warns that Iran is still a threat : “The Iranian regime, in my mind, is the single most enduring threat to peace and stability in the Mideast." Mattis has also been critical of Obama’s strategy against ISIS, telling Time magazine in August that the current fight is “unguided by a sustained policy or sound strategy [and is] replete with half-measures.” However, Mattis knows the value of diplomacy. Just prior to his retirement, Mattis urged Congress to fund diplomacy, saying, “If you don’t fund the State Department fully, then I need to buy more ammunition, ultimately.” • Mattis also has his differences with Trump. The General has a harder view on Russia than the President-Elect, who defended his praise of Vladimir Putin throughout the campaign. Mattis, whose career also included a stint as NATO’s supreme allied commander for transition, has warned that the Russian president is trying to “break NATO apart." And, Trump recently suggested that Mattis is making him take a second look his support for torture. Trump has said he wants to bring back waterboarding and "a hell of a lot worse." But he told the New York Times recently that he was surprised when Mattis told him he preferred to gather intel with "a pack of cigarettes and a couple of beers.” Trump said he wasn’t necessarily changing his mind on the issue but was “impressed” with Mattis’s take. • • • WILL THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION FOCUS ON IRAN? The Russian media outlet closest to the Kremlin, RT, reported on Tuesday that Iran has streamlined missile production and can now make more weapons for less money. RT cited a Fars News Agency report quoting Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, who said in Teheran on Tuesday : "Iran has managed to increase production of ballistic missiles despite budget constraints by streamlining the manufacturing process. In addition to enhancing the precision-striking power and quality of ballistic missiles, Iranian authorities and experts have used innovative and shortcut methods to produce inexpensive missiles, and today we are witnessing an increase in production [of ballistic missiles]..." At the same time, Iranian Defense Minister Brigadier General Hossein Dehqan said : "90 percent of the country's defense systems have reached an acceptable standard and enjoy competitive quality compared with the weapons of advanced countries.” • Iran, cut off from weapons markets and unable to buy more advanced technology or properly maintain its fighter jets or resupply its weaponry after the 1979 Islamic Revolution, has turned to the pursuit of domestic production of all the systems it needs for national defense. The development of rocket technology is part of this effort, which Teheran says is needed to compete with its regional rivals, Israel and Saudi Arabia. The US, an ally and major arms supplier of both Israel and Saudi Arabia, has consistently imposed sanctions against Iran over the development and testing of ballistic missiles. This policy has not changed, even after the 2015 nuclear deal which some see as easing concerns over Iran’s potential to develop nuclear weapons. • Tensions are expected to escalate under the administration of President-Elect Donald Trump, as both he and his Cabinet and national security advisors criticize the nuclear deal. In addition, last week, the Republican-controlled US Senate voted 99 to 0 for a 10-year extension of anti-Iran sanctions, after an overwhelming 419 to 1 vote for the move in the House. • • • IRAN'S POSITION. Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, who views the nuclear deal with skepticism, recently warned that the passage of the Iran Sanctions Act would not go without retaliation. In late November, Reuters reported that Khamenei had warned the American government that if it renewed sanctions over Iran’s nuclear program for another ten years, there would be consequences. Later, Khamenei again warned the United States not to renege on its agreement when he spoke at a meeting of the Revolutionary Guards, saying that America should brace itself for the consequences if it renews the sanctions on Iran. These warnings came before the US Senate vote to extend the ISA. Thursday's Senate vote to extend the Iran Sanctions Act authorizes a President to prevent investment in Iran’s energy sector and other sensitive industries. While Obama has waived most sanctions under the nuclear accord, congressional leaders said keeping them in reserve provides valuable leverage against Iran. White House spokesman Eric Schultz said the bill won’t interfere with the US-led nuclear agreement and he expects the President to sign it. The ISA had been due to expire on December 31, but congressional leaders said the extension would make it easier for sanctions to be reimposed if Iran violates the nuclear settlement. • After the Senate vote, Iran's rhetoric shifted from warning against passage of the ISA to warning against its implementation. Iran President Hassan Rouhani in the Iranian parliament on December 4 said : "If this law is implemented it will be a blatant violation of the Iran deal and it will lead to our resolute answer.” In response to the Senate vote, 260 members of Iran’s 290-seat parliament have called on Rouhani’s government to take unspecified reciprocal action against the US, according to Ahmad Amir-Abadi Farahani, a member of parliament’s presiding board, who issued a statement cited by the official Islamic Republic News Agency. Lawmakers interrupted Rouhani’s appearance in parliament, which was broadcast live on state television, briefly chanting “Death to America” when the president spoke about the Iran Sanctions Act and mentioned Obama, ignoring calls for calm from parliament speaker Ali Larijani. • • • THE IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL CONTINUES TO ROIL ALREADY DIFFICULT US-IRAN RELATIONS. The accord signed last year by Iran and six world powers including the US curbed Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of international sanctions imposed over the work. While the agreement came into force in January, it did not end a number of other US restrictions related to Iran’s missile development and its links to US-designated terrorist groups. The election of Donald Trump -- who described Iran in campaign speeches as the world's biggest state sponsor of terrorism and dismissed the nuclear accord as "one of the worst deals ever negotiated" -- has strengthened Republican opposition to the accord -- last month the House voted to block Boeing Co. from selling or leasing planes to Iran, after Boeing agreed earlier this year to supply 109 aircraft to Iran in a deal worth as much $25 billion. • Obama administration officials said the ISA renewal would not affect the nuclear agreement, under which Iran agreed to limit its sensitive atomic activity in return for the lifting of international financial sanctions that choked its oil-based economy. But senior Iranian officials disagree with the Obama administration view. Iran's nuclear energy chief, Ali Akbar Salehi, a central figure in reaching the nuclear deal, described the extension as a "clear violation" if implemented, telling Iran state TV : "We are closely monitoring developments. If they implement the ISA, Iran will take action accordingly." It is not clear what form Iranian retaliation might take, but the Senate vote was a blow to pragmatic Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, who engineered the diplomatic opening to the West that led to the nuclear deal, and it may embolden his hardline rivals ahead of Iran's presidential election next year. Khamenei and his hardline loyalists made up of shi'ite Moslem clerics and Revolutionary Guards have continually criticized the deal and blamed Rouhani for its failure to deliver swift improvements in living standards since the lifting of international sanctions in January. One Iranian lawmaker quoted by the semi-official Tasnim news agency said Iran's parliament planned to discuss a bill that would prevent the government purchasing "American products." Yet, the Obama administration is contemplating taking measures aimed at keeping the Iran deal afloat, including allowing for more US businesses to operate there. • • • THE US HAS BEEN 'SOFT' ON IRAN. The American Thinker published an article on December 3 stating that the 30-year-old appeasement policy vis-à-vis Iran must end. Iran analyst Heshmat Alavi quoted Iranian opposition leader Maryam Rajavi, who spoke at a conference in Paris on November 26 : "If the international community is serious about bringing an end to Daesh [ISIS], it must first end Iran’s role in Syria. The nations of Iran and Syria are brothers, standing shoulder to shoulder, deploring the devastating war raging for nearly six years." The conference, “Call for Justice: Ending Impunity for Perpetrators of Crimes Against Humanity in Iran and Syria,” attracted distinguished political personalities and jurists from across Europe, as well as others representing Middle East countries, and a delegate of Syrian opposition officials. Rajavi told the conferees : "The Iranian people and nations of the region have suffered from a disastrous US policy, and the entire Middle East in the past 16 years has witnessed the mullahs in Iran profiting the most." Attendees seemed to expect that the Trump administration will significantly revise "this utterly botched policy" that has led to nearly half a million innocent Syrians killed, with more than half the country displaced from their homes. Concerning western laxity in the face of Iranian terrorism, the conference noted several key outcomes -- nearly 3,000 people have been executed during the tenure of “moderate” Iranian president Hassan Rouhani; Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Lebanon have suffered havoc as a result of Iran’s meddling; the people of Iran truly detest the filthy war fueled by Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei as he sends more troops and militia forces to “defend the Holy Shrines” in Syria and Iraq, because under the banner of fighting ISIS, Iran has specifically targeted the sunnis of Iraq and Syria in lethal sectarian massacres. The conference offered two key solutions to the Syria and Middle East crisis : (1) the West, and especially America, must adopt a responsible policy of standing firm against Teheran’s meddling, creating a realistic platform to defeat ISIS by eliminating any role for the Iranian regime in such a campaign; and, (2) the US must take a firm stance regarding Iranian nuclear policy, with the new Trump administration not allowing Teheran to take any advantage. • • • WHAT DOES IRAN WANT? In Iraq, the need for the formation of Iran-backed shiite militias has almost disappeared. The Iraqi army -- with US intelligence, Special Operations forces, and military equipment, has finally taken on the role of defeating extremist forces in Iraq. A political solution, however, one that includes Iraq's sunnis, cannot be accomplished while sectarian Iran-led shiite militias are free to roam the country killing sunnis. It seems clear that Iran would prefer to establish a 'state within a state' inside Iraq -- copying the Revolutionary Guard or Hezbollah in Lebanon, if it could. So, the Iranians have several fundamental objectives in Iraq. First, nobody in Iran wants to see Iraq ever again develop into a power that could threaten Iranian security. This means keeping Iraq militarily weak. Second, Iraq has developed into one of Iran's biggest trading partners -- a market worth billions of dollars -- and Iran needs to prevent a failed state in Iraq in order to preserve this market. Third, Mosul is only 85 km from Irbil, the capital of the Iraqi Kurdish region, and Kurdish peshmerga forces have played a key role in the fight against ISIS. Iran has already accepted a great deal of Kurdish autonomy, and in 2014, when Iraqi forces were dropping their weapons and fleeing, it was the Iranians who rapidly moved into Iraq to assist in the fight against ISIS. The Kurds haven't forgotten this. Iran certainly wants to stay close ot the Kurds and keep its relations with them stable. • And, the Iran nuclear deal is a key part of Iran's strategy in all of these Iraq goals. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani is becoming increasingly worried about Trump’s intentions to 'renegotiate' the Obama nuclear deal. In an address at the University of Tehran, Rouhani said : "Do you think the United States can rip up the JCPOA [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action nuclear deal]? Do you think we and our nation will let him do that?" Rouhani's question goes beyond the intentions buried in Iran's nuclear program. Iran received a windfall of money when the agreement was enacted in January 2016. The deal lifted sanctions on oil-producing Iran, and unfroze $150 billion in Iranian assets, while the Obama administration sent $1.7 billion in cash to Iran early this year, $400 million of which coincided with the release of four American prisoners. Further, the nuclear deal ended Iran’s international isolation, revived the Iranian economy, and cleared the way for Iran to import Russian arms -- all without forcing Iran to dismantle key parts of its nuclear infrastructure. But, Trump is naming to his Cabinet Iraq-hardened Generals known for their anti-Iran positions and Iran must be afraid that they will no longer get away with all of their trademark terrorist activities. Generals Mattis and Flynn, named as Secretary of Defense and National Security Advisor, have long expressed concern about Iran and the ineffective US Iran policy. General Mattis is eminently qualified to serve as Secretary of Defense during the war on terrorists. There is no rational basis to oppose his nomination, as some Democrats in Congress are threatening to do. There is no danger of a military takeover in America, as some Democrats cynically say they fear. Democrats are playing politics with one of the most important nominations during a time of war. They should set aside their petty politics for the best interest of America and the West. • And, Fox News reported on Wednesday that Trump is preparing to name another general to his administration -- retired Marine four-star General John Kelly to lead the Department of Homeland Security. Kelly retired from the Marine Corps earlier this year after leading US Southern Command for three years, during which he was involved in the oversight of the detention center at Guantanamo Bay. He served three tours in Iraq, and holds the somber distinction of being the most senior military officer to lose a child in combat in Iraq or Afghanistan. His son, Marine 2nd Lieutenant Robert Kelly was killed in November, 2010, in Helmand Province, Afghanistan. Immigration enforcement is known territory to Kelly, and a big part of the DHS job. Southern Command, based in South Florida, regularly works with DHS on missions to identify and dismantle immigrant smuggling networks. And it has partnered with Immigration and Customs Enforcement in an operation targeting human smuggling into the US and helped with the rescue of children arriving alone at US borders. • • • DEAR READERS, on Tuesday, President-Elect Donald Trump said he would only use US military force : "when it is in the vital national security of the United States. We don't want to have a depleted military, because we're all over the place fighting in areas that just we shouldn't be fighting in. We're going to have such a strong, powerful military. It is not going to be depleted any longer. We will stop racing to topple foreign governments -- foreign regimes that we know nothing about -- that we shouldn't be involved with. Instead, our focus must be on defeating terrorism and destroying ISIS. And we will." He added that a Trump administration will work with other nations that share his mission of eliminating terrorism and promoting peace because : "we want to strengthen our friendships and seek out new friendships. Rather than a rigid dogma, we're guided by the lessons of history and desire to promote stability -- stability all over. This destructive cycle of intervention and chaos must finally, folks, come to an end. We seek harmony and goodwill among the nations of the world -- and we believe that respect for mutual sovereignty helps form the basis of trust and understanding. But we don't want people taking advantage of us anymore. We don't want countries taking advantage of us anymore." • That is the Trump Foreign Policy Dogma. Those who want a more peaceful world have nothing to fear. Iran must now decide what it really wants -- peace with America and the world, or the trouble that a Trump administration, with Secretary of Defense Mattis, National Security Advisor Flynn, and CIA Director Pompeo, can deliver. May we add -- on time and under budget.