The Obama/Kerry Fear of War Has Unleashed Its Possibility on the Middle East and the World

Words have meaning. The words in the Iran nuclear deal have meaning, forcing changes in the Middle East that are already being felt all over the region. ~~~~~ Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif talked to Iran's parliament to defend the nuclear deal he reached with the P5+1 powers. Before Zarif spoke, parliament hardliners criticized the deal. But, Zarif told the conservative MPs yesterday that most if not all of Iran's conditions had been respected : “We don’t say the deal is totally in favor of Iran. Any negotiation is a give and take. We have definitely shown some flexibility. I tell you as I told the Supreme Leader, we did our best to preserve most of the red lines, if not all." As Zarif defends his deal, Supreme Leader Khamenei has not given a hint of his decision, although one of his senior aids has told Iranians to respect Zarif's work. Indeed, it is hard to imagine why Khamenei would reject $100 billion in released funds combined with the ability to pursue Iran's nuclear program. ~~~~~ The unanimously agreed UN Security Council resolution recognizing the P5+1 deal with Iran allows all UN sanctions to be re-imposed if Iran violates the agreement during the next 10 years. If Iran adheres to the terms of the agreement, then all provisions of the UN resolution would end in 10 years. But in an attempt to get at the UN what they could not get from Iran during negotiations, the P5+1, and the European Union told UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon that after 10 years they plan to seek a five-year extension of the mechanism allowing sanctions to be re-imposed. Abbas Araqchi, one of Iran's deputy foreign ministers, rejected this : "Our priority is our national interests, not UN Security Council's resolutions....The resolution says clearly that the timeframe of agreement is 10 years, and Iran’s case will be closed in the Security Council after that." Araqchi said Iran will not accept any extension of sanctions beyond 10 years, adding Iran would do 'anything' to help allies in the Middle East, emphasizing Khamenei's message that despite the deal, Iran will not change its anti-Western foreign policy. This is not exactly how Obama describes his "snapback." ~~~~~ While Zarif defends his deal and Araqchi fights against sanctions, Chinese President Xi and President Obama talked by phone. Xi told Obama China would work with the US and other parties to ensure the implementation of the Iran agreement, China's foreign ministry said yesterday. According to China, the agreement sends a positive message to the world that the international community can resolve major disputes through talks. China and the US worked closely together during the talks and Obama thanked Xi for this. But we should keep in mind that China has commercial relations with Iran, including buying its oil, and has lobbied long and forcefully against any Iranian sanctions. Commercial ties and a suspected shadowy military relationship, can now proceed. ~~~~~ And in another corner of the Iran deal roadmap, US Defense Secretary Ashton Carter - after leaving Israel on a friendly agree-to-disagree basis - flew to Saudi Arabia for meetings with King Salman and his security leadership. Carter's goal is to reassure yet another US ally of America's support after Obama's nuclear deal with Saudi's arch-rival Iran. Carter has said he will discuss US strategy to counter "Iranian aggression" in the region, as well as the fight against ISIS. Officials say the talks will cover cooperation with Saudi Arabia in missile defense and cyber and maritime security. But, in light of Obama's deal, Saudi Arabia is now considering whether to speed up its own nuclear power plans for creating an atomic infrastructure that could later be weaponized. Experts say it's uncertain whether the Saudis could build an atomic bomb in secret or withstand the political pressure if its plans were revealed. Jamal Khashoggi, head of a Saudi news channel owned by a prince, said : "I think Saudi Arabia would seriously try to get the bomb if Iran did. It's just like India and Pakistan. The Pakistanis said for years they didn't want one, but when India got it, so did they." The Kingdom worries that the nuclear deal will free Iran to support its stable of proxy terrorists across the region. Saudis close to the ruling family have also warned that if Iran weaponizes its nuclear program, then the Kingdom will have to follow suit despite the possible costs -- becoming a pariah state and cutting ties with the US. Many analysts think the Kingdom would risk developing nuclear weapons -- because of the life-and-death importance of the Saudi struggle with Iran, and because Saudi doubts that meaningful sanctions could be re-imposed on Iran, whose economy depends on trade, and whose released massive oil exports will become critical for global energy markets. What senior Saudis have consistently said about the Iranian nuclear deal is that they will demand exactly the same terms -- that means a nuclear fuel cycle that could produce material for a bomb. Saudi Arabia has avoided using its ability to upset the world economy for political gain, but that could change if it felt threatened enough. It may bet that fears of a repeat of the 1973 oil embargo would stop any real international pressure over its nuclear plans. "I'm sure Saudi Arabia is ready to withstand pressure. It would have moral standing," said Khashoggi, adding that he believed Saudi oil exports would immunize it from press attacks. ~~~~~ Meanwhile, in an interview with Saudi-owned Al Arabiya television, US Secretary of State John Kerry said a speech by Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei on Saturday vowing to defy American policies in the region despite a deal with world powers over Iran's nuclear program was "very disturbing." Kerry said : "I don't know how to interpret it at this point in time, except to take it at face value, that that's his policy....But I do know that often comments are made publicly and things can evolve that are different. If it is the policy, it's very disturbing, it's very troubling." On Saturday, Khamenei assured supporters that US policies in the region were "180 degrees" opposed to Iran's : "Even after this deal our policy toward the arrogant US will not change." Gulf Arab states have long accused non-Arab Iran of interferring, including financial and armed support for jihadist movements in Bahrain, Yemen and Lebanon. Kerry told Al Arabiya the US believes its Arab allies have the ability to confront Iranian interference in the region : "I think President Obama's belief and our military assessments, our intelligence assessments, are that if they organize themselves correctly, all of the Arab states have an untapped potential that is very, very significant to be able to push back against any of these activities." On Monday, Kerry voiced what seems to be the basic rationale for making a deal - almost any deal - with Iran. Kerry told National Public Radio : "Well, let me tell you exactly what happens. If the United States Congress says, "No, this deal isn't going forward," and they actually got enough votes to kill the deal, there's no deal. If there's no deal, there are no sanctions, there are no inspections, there's no regime hanging over Iran - except the existing IAEA, which wasn't enough to get the job done, which is why we negotiated something further. And Iran will say, "Aha, you see!" The Ayatollah will say, "I told you, you can't trust the West. I told you, you can't negotiate with these guys. They will lie to you, they will cheat you, and here they are - they led us down the path and the Congress walked away. They have 535 secretaries of state; there's nobody to negotiate with." And our European allies will walk away saying, "Well, we tried our best, now we trust Iran and we're going to go do something." And they'll cut their own deal. We're finiished. I'm telling you, the US will have lost all credibility. We will not be in the hunt, and if we then decided to use military, do you believe the UN will be with us? Do you think our European colleagues will support us? Not in your life. They'll say "you guys just walked away from something we spent four years negotiating with you." This will be a travesty, and Iran will begin enriching, claiming it is a right which they only gave up in the context of negotiations - but since the negotiations are dead, they're going to resume their rights." ~~~~~ Dear readers, if you don't feel the panic in Kerry's outpouring, you don't understand words. What we now know is that Obama and Kerry were so afraid of war with Iran that they sought any deal to prevent it. They blamed conservatives in Congress of having only one alternative to the deal - war. We now learn that Obama is so afraid of war that he agreed to a deal that will very likely provoke a war. But that will be the next President's problem, not his. He hopes. That is the existential dilemma Obama's fear has unleashed on the Middle East and the world.