After the Iran Deal, the World Needs a Real Middle East Coalition

The Iran deal is opposed by most Middle East Arab powers and Israel. Let's examine in detail Middle East reactions to the deal. ~~~~~ First, Iran. President Hassan Rouhani told a cabinet meeting shown on state television that the nuclear deal with the P5+1 world powers is a political victory for Iran : "No one can say Iran surrendered...The deal is a legal, technical and political victory for Iran. It's an achievement that Iran won’t be called a world threat any more....No deal is perfect. There should be always compromise....It was really difficult to preserve some of our red lines. There was a time we doubted there could be a deal. It’s a historic deal and Iranians will be proud of it for generations to come." Iran's "red lines" were a refusal to accept a long freeze on nuclear R&D and a demand for a rapid lifting of sanctions. ~~~~~ In an action that speaks volumes about Iran's expectation that the US Congress will be unable to stop the accord, the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) has been ordered to increase production from all oilfields this year. At full capacity, Iran's pre-sanction output was 4 million barrels per day. "We want to reach to our pre-sanctions capacity. We tested a production increase in the main oilfields last year," the NIOC managing director told Iran's Shargh newspaper : "This year we have been ordered to increase production in all fields." ~~~~~ The Tehran Times reports that President Rouhani described the talks as “unprecedented” -- that they opened a new page in Iran’s history, that the deal has changed the public’s “wrong assumption” about Iran since the Islamic Revolution, and that the major powers reached the conclusion that sanctions were “useless” and that they had "no choice" other than negotiations. ~~~~~ Other Tehran Times stories give a flavor of Iran's euphoria and of rapid international moves to capitalize on Iranian business opportunities : *Bright days ahead are announced for Iran's tourism industry, one of the fields that will be most affected by the historic nuclear agreement. Tourism activists and experts are "happiest Iranians" after the deal was made. *A wave of congratulatory messages by Iranian film makers, writers and cultural figures was published on social networks and Persian news websites after the nuclear deal was announced. *The Swiss MSC shipping line is ready to resume operation at Iranian ports. MSC is the world’s second-largest shipping line in terms of container vessel capacity. *Britain hopes to re-open its Iran embassy by year-end, British Foreign Minister Philip Hammond said on Wednesday. *The nuclear deal will reignite Iran’s petrochemical sector growth, according to senior Iranian petrochemical officials. *French Foreign Secretary Laurent Fabius will visit Iran as France eyes trade with Iran. Fabius said Wednesday he had accepted an invitation to visit Iran after the historic deal. ~~~~~ Reuters reported yesterday that Iran's conservative-dominated parliament will invite Foreign Minister Zarif to brief it on the nuclear deal he negotiated. Parliament speaker Ali Larijani said MPs would study the accord's text and annexes from both legal and technical perspectives. But Larijani urged the MPs to study the nuclear deal technically and not politically -- not to act based on the “political remarks of others” which are expressed with different motivations. ~~~~~ Parliament's review will offer a reaction to the deal inside Iran's political establishment. A Khamenei advisor told the Fars news agency that any deal reached was preliminary, to be approved by the National Security Council and later by Khamenei. The parliament - along with elements of the judiciary, armed forces and clerical establishment - strongly oppose making any meaningful concessions and is expected to seize on any perceived abuses by UN inspectors or western powers in the coming months. The head of parliament's security committee said MPs would examine the deal for details about access to a military site at Parchin, saying there appeared to have been a "compromise." Fars news agency reported that the IAEA - the UN nuclear watchdog - has repeatedly asked for access to Parchin to investigate concerns that Iran has conducted experiments to assess how specific materials react under high pressure as in a nuclear blast. For months, Iran had been stalling a UN probe into the possible military aspects of its past nuclear activities, relating mostly to the period before 2003, saying IAEA's data was fabricated. Iran's nuclear chief told Iran's ISNA news agency on Tuesday that Iran's red lines had been respected with regard to international access to Parchin. The IAEA said on Tuesday it had agreed a roadmap with Iran to resolve all outstanding questions about its nuclear program by the end of the year. ~~~~~ Outside Iran, the Middle East is in turmoil about the Iran nuclear deal. Reuters reports that Saudi Arabian media attacked the deal on Wednesday, with cartoonists depicting it as an assault on Arab interests and columnists attacking its focus on Teheran's atomic plans instead of its backing for regional militias. The official Saudi reaction was a terse statement that welcomed any agreement that would ensure Iran could not develop a nuclear arsenal, but stressed the importance of tough inspections and the ability to reimpose sanctions quickly. In private, Saudi officials fear that an Iran freed from international pressure and economic sanctions will use sanctions money to back shiitecallies across the region. Reuters noted a cartoon in Asharq al-Awsat, a pan-Arab daily close to King Salman's branch of the ruling family, that shows a trampled body marked "Middle East," with a placard saying "nuclear deal" sticking from its head. The top-hatted and turbaned silhouettes of America's Uncle Sam and an Iranian cleric run across the body hand in hand -- portraying a widely voiced concern that Obama's quest for a deal means it has realigned with Iran at Arab expense. A Saudi official on Tuesday told Reuters he feared the agreement would make the Middle East more dangerous if it gives concessions to an Iranian government that Riyadh blames for turmoil in Yemen, Syria and Iraq, and that the deal would simply allow Teheran to back shiite Moslem militias and militants. Saudi Arabia sees Iranian involvement in Arab countries as feeding the sectarian conflict that allows ISIS to thrive. A cartoon in the Saudi daily al- Watan, owned by the ruling family, shows an Iranian cleric with a malignant facial expression turning the spigot on an oil pipeline marked "nuclear deal", from which dollar bills are pouring into the mouth of a masked militant labeled "terrorism." ~~~~~ In Israel, the Iran deal has left officials convinced that it will not curb Teheran's nuclear weapons goals and will leave Israel under an even greater threat. But, Israel has failed to influence the US, its closest ally. Netanyahu spoke to Obama on Tuesday evening and then issued a statement to explain that his rocky personal relationship with President Obama had nothing to do with the results in the Iran nuclear negotiations. The first Israeli opinion poll published since the deal was signed shows solid support for Netanyahu. The survey found that 69% object to the agreement with Iran and 10% back it, with the rest undecided. And 32% of Israelis think Israel should respond by attacking Iranian nuclear installations, while 40% oppose that idea and 28% have no view. Israel says the deal is full of holes, particularly concerning verification and Iran's "breakout" capability - the time it would theoretically take Iran to develop a nuclear weapon. Israel is also worried about Iran's access to $100 billion of frozen assets when the deal is implemented in six months. Here, Israel's alarm stems from Iran's backing for militant groups in the region, including Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria, Hamas in Gaza and the Houthi rebels in Yemen. The Jewish democracy, while small, has a strong army and receives $3 billion a year in military-related support from the US. It is expected to increase following the Iran deal. Israel reserves the right to defend itself. Netanyahu's nuclear affairs cabinet member said Wednesday : "Israel's right of self-defense is non-negotiable....When...Iran is calling once again, even in the last few days, for Israel's destruction, Israel of course has the right, and also the duty, to defend itself by itself." ~~~~~ Dear readers, Obama and his 5+1 allies have created an historic mess by their determiation to work with Iran. Israel is allied with Saudi Arabia, Jordan and the Gulf states in expressing serious doubts about the deal. Only the US Congress can intervene. But given its past timidity, we can be forgiven for doubting that Congress will stand firm against Obama. It is time for a real Middle East Coalition.